A combined water balance and tree ring approach to understanding the potential hydrologic effects of climate change in the central Rocky Mountain region

Water Resources Research

Volumn 46, Issue 5, 2010, Pages

  Gray, Stephen T ^a   McCabe, Gregory J ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING   (United States)

^b DENVER FEDERAL CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE; COMBINED WATER; DISCHARGE ESTIMATE; HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; LATE HOLOCENE; NON-STATIONARITIES; NORTHERN HEMISPHERES; PALEOPRECIPITATION; PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY; RIVER DISCHARGE; ROCKY MOUNTAINS; TEMPERATURE PROJECTION; TEMPERATURE REGIMES; TEST CASE; TREE RINGS; WATER AVAILABILITY; WATER BALANCE; WATER BALANCE MODELS; YELLOWSTONES;

CLIMATE MODELS; LANDFORMS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); SEDIMENTARY ROCKS; WATER SUPPLY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DROUGHT; HOLOCENE; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RIVER DISCHARGE; TREE RING; TWENTIETH CENTURY; WARMING; WATER AVAILABILITY; WATER BUDGET; WATER SUPPLY;

ROCKY MOUNTAINS; UNITED STATES; YELLOWSTONE RIVER;

EID: 77952276946     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2008WR007650     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Barnett, T. P., and D. Pierce (2009), Sustainable water deliveries from the Colorado River in a changing climate, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 106, 7334-7338, doi:10.1073/pnas.0812884106.
2. Barnett, T. P., et al. (2008), Humaninduced changes in the hydrology of the western United States, Science, 319(5866), 1080-1083, doi:10.1126/ science.1152538.
3. Biondi, F., D. L. Perkins, D. R. Cayan, and M. K. Hughes (1999), July temperature during the second millennium reconstructed from Idaho tree rings, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1445-1448, doi:10.1029/1999GL900272. (Pubitemid 29483585)
4. Biondi, F., T. J. Kozubowski, and A. K. Panorska (2005), A new model for quantifying climate episodes, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1253-1264.
5. Calvo, J. C. (1986), An evaluation of Thornthwaite's water balance technique in predicting stream runoff in Costa Rica, Hydrol. Sci. J., 31, 51-60.
6. Cayan, D. R., M. D. Dettinger, H. F. Diaz, and N. E. Graham (1998), Decadal variability of precipitation over western North America, J. Clim., 11, 3148-3166, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<3148:DVOPOW>2.0. CO;2.
7. Christensen, N. S., and D. P. Lettenmaier (2007), A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1417-1434.
8. Christensen, N. S., A. W. Wood, N. Voisin, D. Lettenmaier, and R. N. Palmer (2004), The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin, Clim. Change, 62, 337-363, doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013684.13621.1f. (Pubitemid 38300007)
9. Cook, E. R. (1985), A time series approach to treering standardization, Ph.D. dissertation, Univ. of Ariz., Tucson.
10. Cook, E. R., and M. Evans (2000), Improving estimates of drought variability and extremes from centuries long tree ring chronologies: A PAGES/CLIVAR example, CLIVAR Exch., 15, 1-2.
11. Cook, E. R., C. A. Woodhouse, C. M. Eakin, D. M. Meko, and D. W. Stahle (2004), Long-term aridity changes in the western United States, Science, 306, 1015-1018, doi:10.1126/science.1102586. (Pubitemid 39482901)
12. D'Arrigo, R., R. Wilson, and G. Jacoby (2006), On the Long-term context for late twentieth century warming, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D03103, doi:10.1029/2005JD006352.
13. Daly, C., R. P. Neilson, and D. L. Phillips (1994), A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountanious terrain, J. Appl. Meteorol., 33, 140-158, doi:10.1175/1520- 0450(1994) 033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2.
14. Draper, N. R., and H. Smith (1998), Applied Regression Analysis, 736 pp., John Wiley, New York.
15. Fritts, H. C. (1976), Tree Rings and Climate, 376 pp., Academic, London.
16. Goodkin, N. F., K. A. Hughen, S. C. Doney, and W. B. Curry (2008), Increased multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation since 1781, Nat. Geosci., 1, 844-848, doi:10.1038/ngeo352.
17. Graumlich, L. J., M. F. J. Pisaric, L. A. Waggoner, J. S. Littell, and J. C. King (2003), Upper Yellowstone River flow and teleconnections with Pacific basin climate variability during the past three centuries, Clim. Change, 59, 245-262.
18. Gray, S. T., J. L. Betancourt, C. L. Fastie, and S. T. Jackson (2003), Patterns and sources of multidecadal oscillations in drought-sensitive tree ring records from the central and southern Rocky Mountains, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(6), 1316, doi:10.1029/2002GL016154.
19. Gray, S. T., C. Fastie, S. T. Jackson, and J. L. Betancourt (2004), Tree ring based reconstructions of precipitation in the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming since A.D. 1260, J. Clim., 17, 3855-3865, doi:10.1175/1520-0442 (2004)017<3855: TROPIT>2.0.CO;2.
20. Gray, S. T., L. J. Graumlich, and J. L. Betancourt (2007), Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173, Quat. Res., 68, 18-27, doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2007.02.002. (Pubitemid 46930781)
21. Hamon, W. R. (1961), Estimating potential evapotranspiration, J. Hydraul. Div. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 87, 107-120.
22. Hay, L. E., and G. J. McCabe (2002), Spatial variability in water-balance model performance in the conterminous United States, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 38, 847-860, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2002.tb01001.x.
23. Hay, L. E., M. P. Clark, R. L. Wilby, W. J. Gutowski, G. H. Leavesley, Z. Pan, R. W. Arritt, and E. S. Takle (2002), Use of regional climate model output for hydrologic simulations, J. Hydrometeorol., 3, 571-590.
24. Hoerling, M., and J. Eischeid (2007), Past peak water in the Southwest, Southwest Hydrol., 6, 18.
25. Holmes, R. L. (1983), Computer assisted quality control in tree ring dating and measurement, Tree Ring Bull., 43, 69-95.
26. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis-Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate, 996 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
27. Ladd, P. B. (2008), Compilation of water-resources data for Montana, water year 2007, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open File Rep., 2008?1325, 38 pp.
28. Legates, D. R., and G. J. McCabe (1999), Evaluating the use of "goodnessoffit" measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation, Water Resour. Res., 25, 233-241, doi:10.1029/1998WR900018. (Pubitemid 29054163)
29. Maidment, D. R. (1993), Handbook of Hydrology, McGraw Hill, New York.
30. McCabe, G. J., and D. M. Wolock (1999), Future snowpack conditions in the western United States derived from general circulation model climate simulations, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 35, 1473-1484, doi:10.1111/ j.1752-1688.1999.tb04231.x.
31. McCabe, G. J., and D. M. Wolock (2007), Warming may create substantial water supply shortages in the Colorado River basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22708, doi:10.1029/2007GL031764. (Pubitemid 351222824)
32. McCabe, G. J., J. L. Betancourt, S. T. Gray, M. A. Palecki, and H. H. Hidalgo (2008), Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with U.S. drought, Quat. Int., 188(1), 31-40, doi:10.1016/ j.quaint.2007.07.001.
33. Meko, D. M., and C. A. Woodhouse (2010), Dendroclimatology, dendrohydrology, and water resources management, in Tree Rings and Climate: Sharpening the Focus, edited by H. F. Diaz and M. K. Hughes, Springer, New York, in press.
34. Meko, D. M., C. A. Woodhouse, C. A. Baisan, T. Knight, J. J. Lukas, M. K. Hughes, and M. W. Salzer (2007), Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L10705, doi:10.1029/ 2007GL029988.
35. Milly, P. C. D., J. L. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R. M. Hirsch, Z. W. Kundzewicz, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. J. Stouffer (2008), Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?, Science, 319, 573-574, doi:10.1126/science.1151915. (Pubitemid 351197047)
36. Mintz, Y., and Y. V. Serafini (1992), A global monthly climatology of soil moisture and water balance, Clim. Dyn., 8, 13-27.
37. Moberg, A., D. M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N. M. Datsenko, and W. Karlen (2005), Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low and high resolution proxy data, Nature, 333, 613-617.
38. Nash, J. E., and J. V. Sutcliffe (1970), River flow forecasting through conceptual models: I. a discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282-290, doi:10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6.
39. Prairie, J., K. Nowak, B. Rajagopalan, U. Lall, and T. Fulp (2008), A stochastic nonparametric approach for streamflow generation combining observational and paleo reconstructed data, Water Resour. Res., 44, W06423, doi:10.1029/2007WR006684
40. Rango, A., and J. Martinec (1995), Revisiting the degree?day method for snowmelt computations, Water Resour. Bull., 31, 657-669.
41. Salas, J. D., J. W. Delleur, V. Yevjevich, and W. L. Lane (1980), Applied modeling of hydrological time series, 483 pp., Water Resour. Publ., Highlands Ranch, Colo.
42. Stokes, M. A., and T. L. Smiley (1968), An Introduction to Tree ring Dating, Univ. of Ariz. Press, Tucson.
43. Swetnam, T. W., M. A. Thompson, and E. K. Sutherland (1985), Using dendrochronology to measure radial growth of defoliated trees, Agric. Handb., vol.639, 39 pp., For. Serv., U.S. Dep. of Agric., Washington, D. C.
44. Tarboton, D. G., M. J. Al-Adhami, and D. S. Bowles (1991), A preliminary comparison of snowmelt models for erosion prediction, paper presented at the 59th Annual Western Snow Conference, Juneau, Alaska, 12-15 April.
45. Thornthwaite, C. W. (1948), Approach toward a rational classification of climate, Geogr. Rev., 38, 55-94, doi:10.2307/210739.
46. Watson, T. A., F. A. Barnett, S. T. Gray, and G. A. Tootle (2009), Reconstructed streamflows for the headwaters of the Wind River, Wyoming, USA, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 45(1), 224-236.
47. Weisberg, S. (1985), Applied Linear Regression, 2nd ed., John Wiley, Hoboken, N. J.
48. Wilcox, B. P., W. J. Rawls, D. L. Brakensiek, and J. R. Wright (1990), Predicting runoff from rangeland catchments: A comparison of two models, Water Resour. Res., 26, 2401-2410.
49. Wolock, D. M., and G. J. McCabe (1999), Effects of potential climatic change on annual runoff in the conterminous United States, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 35, 1341-1350, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04219.x.
50. Wolock, D. M., G. J. McCabe, G. D. Tasker, and M. E. Moss (1993), Effects of climate change on water resources in the Delaware River basin, Water Resour. Bull., 29, 475-486.
51. Woodhouse, C. A., S. T. Gray, and D. M. Meko (2006), Updated streamflow reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River basin, Water Resour. Res., 42, W05415, doi:10.1029/2005WR004455. (Pubitemid 43955915)