The size of the economy and the distribution of income in the roman empire

Journal of Roman Studies

Volumn 99, Issue , 2009, Pages 61-91

  Scheidel, Walter ^a   Friesen, Steven J ^b  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN   (United States)

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 77950541340     PISSN: 00754358     EISSN: 1753528X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3815/007543509789745223     Document Type: Review

References (128)

1. See I. Morris, R. Saller and W. Scheidel, 'Introduction', in W. Scheidel, I. Morris and R. Saller (eds), The Cambridge Economic History of the Greco-Roman World (2007), 1-12
2. and more generally the contributions in the same volume, as well as P. Millett, 'Productive to some purpose? The problem of ancient economic growth', in D. J. Mattingly and J. Salmon (eds), Economies Beyond Agriculture in the Classical World (2001), 17-48
3. R. Saller, 'Framing the debate over growth in the ancient economy', in W. Scheidel and S. von Reden (eds), The Ancient Economy (2002), 251-69
4. and in J. G. Manning and I. Morris (eds), The Ancient Economy (2005), 223-38
5. F. de Callataÿ, 'The Graeco-Roman economy in the super-long run: lead, copper, and shipwrecks', JRA 18 (2005), 361-72
6. R. B. Hitchner, '"The advantages of wealth and luxury": the case for economic growth in the Roman empire', in Manning and Morris, The Ancient Economy op. cit. above, 207-22
7. W. Jongman, 'The rise and fall of the Roman economy: population, rents and entitlement', in P. F. Bang, M. Ikeguchi and H. G. Ziche (eds), Ancient Economies, Modern Methodologies (2006), 237-54
8. W. Jongman, idem, 'The early Roman Empire: consumption', in Scheidel, Morris and Saller, Ancient Economies, Modern Methodologies op. cit. above, 592-618
9. W. Jongman, idem, 'Gibbon was right: the decline and fall of the Roman economy', in O. Hekster, G. de Kleijn and D. Slootjes (eds), Crises and the Roman Empire (2007), 183-99
10. P. F. Bang, 'Trade and empire: in search of organizing concepts for the Roman economy', P&P 195 (2007), 3-54
11. W. Scheidel, 'A model of real income growth in Roman Italy', Historia 56 (2007), 322-46
12. W. Scheidel, idem, 'In search of Roman economic growth', JRA 22 (2009)
13. M. Silver, 'Roman economic growth and living standards: perceptions versus evidence', AncSoc 37 (2007), 191-252
14. For economic growth in ancient Greece, cf. I. Morris, 'Economic growth in ancient Greece', Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics 160 (2004), 709-42
15. I. Morris, idem, 'Archaeology, standards of living, and Greek economic history', in Manning and Morris, The Ancient Economy op. cit. above, 91-126
16. K. Hopkins, 'Taxes and trade in the Roman Empire (200 B.C.-A.D. 400)', JRS 70 (1980), 101-25
17. 'Rome, taxes, rents, and trade', Kodai 6/7 (1995/6), 41-75
18. reprinted in Scheidel and von Reden, The Ancient Economy op. cit. (n. 1), 190-230
19. 'The political economy of the Roman Empire', in I. Morris and W. Scheidel (eds), The Dynamics of Ancient Empires (2009), 178-204
20. Among economists, R. W. Goldsmith, 'An estimate of the size and structure of the national product of the early Roman empire', Review of Income and Wealth 30 (1984), 263-88
21. was a pioneering study, with considerable delay followed by P. Temin, 'Estimating GDP in the early Roman Empire', in E. Lo Cascio (ed.), Innovazione tecnica e progresso economico nel mondo romano (2006), 31-54
22. A. Maddison, Contours of the World Economy, 1-2030 AD (2007), 11-68
23. B. Milanovic, P. H. Lindert and J. G. Williamson, 'Measuring ancient inequality', NBER Working Paper 13550 (October 2007), 64-9
24. See now especially B. Milanovic, 'An estimate of average income and inequality in Byzantium around year 1000', Review of Income and Wealth 52 (2006), 449-70
25. Milanovic, Lindert and Williamson, NBER Working Paper 13550 op. cit. (n. 2);2006), 449-70
26. and also R. C. Allen, 'How prosperous were the Romans? Evidence from Diocletian's Price Edict (301 AD)', University of Oxford, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper Series No. 363 (October 2007), forthcoming in A. Bowman and A. Wilson (eds), Quantifying the Roman Economy (2009)
27. Among ancient historians, A. K. Bowman, 'Landholding in the Hermopolite nome in the fourth century A.D.', JRS 75 (1985), 137-63
28. and R. S. Bagnall, 'Landholding in Late Roman Egypt: the distribution of wealth', JRS 82 (1992), 128-49 stand out for their use of the rich material from Late Roman Egypt
29. On Roman inequality more generally, see most recently S. Friesen, 'Poverty in Pauline Studies: beyond the so-called New Consensus', Journal for the Study of the New Testament 26 (2004), 323-61
30. and W. Scheidel, 'Stratification, deprivation and quality of life', in M. Atkins and R. Osborne (eds), Poverty in the Roman World (2006), 40-59
31. For Greece, cf. L. Foxhall, 'Access to resources in classical Greece: the egalitarianism of the polis in practice', in P. Cartledge, E. E. Cohen and L. Foxhall (eds), Money, Labour and Land (2002), 209-20, with earlier literature
32. For critiques of dichotomous assessments, see Friesen, Journal for the Study of the New Testament (op. cit. (n. 3), especially 339-40
33. with reference to J. J. Meggitt, Paul, Poverty and Survival (1998), 1-7
34. as well as Scheidel, In search of Roman economic growth op. cit. (n. 3), especially 43-4
35. with reference to P. A. Brunt, Italian Manpower 225 B.C.-A.D. 14 (1987), 383
36. P. Garnsey and R. Saller, The Roman Empire (1987), 116
37. H. Kloft, Die Wirtschaft der griechisch-römischen Welt (1992), 203
38. W. Jongman, 'Hunger and power: theories, models and methods in Roman economic history', in H. Bongenaar (ed.), Interdependency of Institutions and Private Entrepreneurs (2000), 271
39. J. Toner, Rethinking Roman History (2002), 50-1
40. See also P. Veyne, 'La "plèbe moyenne" sous le Haut-Empire romain', Annales 55 (2000), 1169-99
41. In dealing with the Roman Empire as a whole, it is legitimate to elide the differences between Gross Domestic Product (i.e., expenditure, value added in production, and income generated within a given unit of observation), Gross National Product (GDP plus or minus net receipts from transfers of property or labour income from outside a given unit of observation), and National Disposable Income (GNP plus or minus net current transfers received in money or kind from outside the unit of observation): see Maddison, Contours of the World Economy, 1-2030 AD op. cit. (n. 2), 45. However, these differences do matter in more narrowly focused regional studies, especially in the case of Roman Italy as a net recipient of transfers from its provinces: see below, n. 52
42. See J. de Vries and A. van der Woude, The First Modern Economy (1997), especially 693-710, for a succinct summary
43. Maddison, Contours of the World Economy, 1-2030 AD (2), 382. ibid. (for a mean of $1,350 for a population of some 75 million in the countries listed in the text below)
44. Hopkins, JRS op. cit. (n. 2, 1980), 117-20 (quotes at 118-19; italics in original)
45. and cf. Hopkins, JRS op. cit. (n. 2, 1995/6), 45-6 = (n. 2, 2002), 198-9 for the same calculation based on a population of 60m, for a minimum total of HS9bn
46. e.g., C. Clark and M. Haswell, The Economics of Subsistence Agriculture (4th edn, 1970), 59-64
47. Thus Goldsmith, Review of Income and Wealth op. cit. (n. 2), 273 n. 51
48. Temin, Innovazione Tecnica e Progresso Economico Nel Mondo Romano op. cit. (n. 2), 36
49. Goldsmith, Review of Income and Wealth op. cit. (n. 2), 266
50. reckoning with mean wheat consumption of 35-40 modii (which he set at 6.75 kg) per average person, a figure that is surely too high: see, e.g., L. Foxhall and H. A. Forbes, 'Sitometreia: the role of grain as a staple food in classical antiquity', Chiron 12 (1982), 41-90
51. P. Garnsey, Famine and Food Supply in the Graeco-Roman World (1988), 104
52. Cities, Peasants, and Food in Classical Antinquity (1998), 193, 203
53. cf. Food and Society in Classical Antiquity (1999), 19-20
54. Temin, Food and Society in Classical Antiquity (op. cit. (n. 2), 47
55. See W. Scheidel, 'Demography', in Scheidel, Morris and Saller, Food and Society in Classical Antiquity (op. cit. (n. 1), 48 table 3.1 for a conjectural breakdown by region
56. revising B. W. Frier, 'The demography of the Early Roman Empire', in CAH XI (2nd edn, 2000), 814 table 6 (c. 61m in 164 C.E.)
57. If anything, our tally of 70 million may still be too low, given the probable size of Italy's population alone, for which see now W. Scheidel, 'Roman population size: the logic of the debate', in L. de Ligt and S. Northwood (eds), People, Land and Politics (2008), 17-70, in response to even higher but less plausible estimates
58. See most recently D. W. Rathbone, 'Living standards and the economy of the Roman empire (I-III AD)', in Bowman and Wilson, People, Land and Politics (op. cit. (n. 3)
59. and also W. Scheidel, 'Real wages in early economies: evidence for living standards from 1800 BCE to 1300 CE', JESHO (in press)
60. N. Jasny, 'Wheat prices and milling costs in ancient Rome', Wheat Studies of the Food Research Institute 20 (1944), 166
61. G. Rickman, The Corn Supply of Ancient Rome (1980), 240
62. R. Duncan-Jones, The Economy of the Roman Empire (2nd edn, 1982), 346
63. W. Scheidel, 'A model of demographic and economic change in Roman Egypt after the Antonine plague', JRA 15 (2002), 103 (8 drachms)
64. Rathbone, JRA op. cit. (n. 22) (9 drachms)
65. See R. Duncan-Jones, Money and Government in the Roman Empire (1994), 33-9
66. This results from Duncan-Jones's (Money and Government in the Roman Empire (op. cit. (n. 25), 45 table 3.7) estimate of an imperial budget of approximately HS900m around 150 C.E
67. (cf. also R. Wolters, Nummi signati (1999), 223 for HS800m after 84 C.E.)
68. and allows for HS100m in municipal taxes, a total that may in fact have been higher. For the significant role of municipal taxation, see now especially H. Schwarz, Soll oder Haben? (2001). Since much government spending occurred in Rome and Italy and at the frontiers, where prices may have been above average, our notional wheat price of HS3.3 per modius may well be on the low side
69. See Allen, Soll oder Haben? (op. cit. (n. 3). Adult women and minors consume less than adult men
70. Scheidel, Soll oder Haben? (op. cit. (n. 22), table 2. The equivalent of 300 kg would keep an average person alive and barely clothed
71. (cf. Clark and Haswell, Soll oder Haben? (op. cit. (n. 14), 64)
72. If all food had been consumed in the form of wheat and there had been no other consumption, 210 kg per year would have sufficed for long-term survival: cf. R. D. Graham et al., 'Nutritious subsistence food systems', Advances in Agronomy 92 (2007), 61 table XV for mean caloric intake in several developing countries
73. Allen, Advances in Agronomy op. cit. (n. 3), undertook an equivalent calculation utilizing the price data in Diocletian's Price Edict of 301 C.E. His findings, however, imply an annual mean of only 204 kg of wheat equivalent per average person, which is too low even for bare subsistence covering food, clothing, shelter, and fuel (see n. 28, and below, pp. 83); this suggests that the imposed price controls sufficiently deviate from normal prices to preclude realistic estimates. In any case it is preferable to use actual prices such as those from Egypt
74. R. C. Allen, 'The great divergence: wages and prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War', Explorations in Economic History 38 (2001), 429 figs 7-8
75. Allen et al., 'Wages, prices, and living standards in China, Japan, and Europe, 1738-1925', GPIH Working Paper No. 1 (October 2005)
76. Allen, GPIH Working Paper No. 1 (op. cit. (n. 3), 14 fig. 2
77. J. A. Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (1991), 204 table 8 (GDP and taxes)
78. Allen, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (op. cit. (n. 30), 428 table 6 (welfare ratio); Allen's data at http://www.iisg.nl/hpw/data. php#europe (wages)
79. See Scheidel, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (op. cit. (n. 1), 335 n. 51
80. H. Cuvigny, 'The amount of wages paid to the quarry-workers at Mons Claudianus', JRS 86 (1996), 139-45
81. D. Sperber, Roman Palestine 200-400 (2nd edn, 1991)
82. Scheidel, Roman Palestine 200-400 (op. cit. (n. 22), table 1 (HS1-1.15)
83. Rathbone, Roman Palestine 200-400 (op. cit. (n. 22), (HS1.2)
84. Temin, Roman Palestine 200-400 (op. cit. (n. 2), 44, 46
85. tabulated Scheidel, Roman Palestine 200-400 (22), ibid., table 4
86. Milanovic, NBER Working Paper 13550 op. cit. (n. 2)
87. For a more detailed study of Byzantium, see Milanovic, NBER Working Paper 13550 op. cit. (n. 3)
88. Milanovic, Review of Income and Wealth op. cit. (n. 3), 468
89. For the probable size of the imperial budget, see above, n. 26. For France, see Goldstone, Roman Palestine 200-400op. cit. (n. 31), 205 table 8
90. Hopkins, Roman Palestine 200-400op. cit. (n. 2, 1980), 120-2; (n. 2, 1995/6), 47 = (n. 2, 2002), 201; (n. 2, 2009), 183-4
91. See Maddison, Roman Palestine 200-400op. cit. (n. 2), 47-51, for higher mean income in Italy due to a higher concentration of élite incomes and tax (and rent) transfers from other regions. This issue and its implications for the tax regime merit further investigation
92. e.g., L. Neesen, Untersuchungen zu den direkten Staatsabgaben in der römischen Kaiserzeit (27 v. Chr.-284 n. Chr.), 68-70
93. R. Duncan-Jones, Structure and Scale in the Roman Economy (1990), 187-90, with (n. 25), 47-9
94. Maddison, Structure and Scale in the Roman Economy (op. cit. (n. 2), 48-50
95. We agree with the findings and arguments of Duncan-Jones, Structure and Scale in the Roman Economy (op. cit. (n. 23), 33, 133-5. Although higher-risk investments were associated with higher interest rates (12 per cent rather than the usual 5-6.7 per cent reported for many charitable foundations), such investments would not always have yielded the expected return; and moreover a certain proportion of élite wealth was tied up in non-productive assets without generating regular returns at all. All this suggests that the margins of uncertainty are moderate and that actual average yields did not greatly exceed the conventional rate of 6 per cent
96. See R. J. A. Talbert, The Senate of Imperial Rome (1984), 131-4
97. For examples of private wealth on that scale, see Duncan-Jones, The Senate of Imperial Rome (op. cit. (n. 23), 343-4
98. For senatorial wealth in general, see I. Shatzman, Senatorial Wealth and Roman Politics (1975)
99. S. Mratschek-Halfmann, Divites et praepotentes (1993)
100. A. M. Andermahr, Totus in praediis (1998)
101. Some senators, of course, barely reached the minimum or relied on the emperor to make up the difference: Talbert, Totus in praediis (op. cit. (n. 56), 52-3
102. See briefly Scheidel, Totus in praediis (op. cit. (n. 3), 50 (Plut., Cic. 31.1: 20,000 knights supported Cicero; Dion. Hal. 6.13.4: 5,000 knights annually paraded under Augustus; Strab. 3.5.3, 5.1.7: Gades and Patavium each boasted 500 knights)
103. Note that the Trajanic alimentary tables record nine estates with values above the equestrian census threshold in Veleia but only two in Ligures Baebiani: Duncan-Jones, Totus in praediis (op. cit. (n. 23), 211
104. Jongman, Totus in praediis (op. cit. (n. 1, 2006), 248 n. 35 reckons with a minimum of 5,000 knights in Italy but none elsewhere, which must be far from the truth
105. W. Jongman, The Economy and Society of Pompeii (1988), 193 n. 5 reckons with 100 cities of 100 councillors each and 330 cities of 30 councillors each, for a total of 20,000 in Roman Italy. Italy had a disproportionately large share of small towns. Towns in Gaul and parts of Spain were less numerous and had larger territories. This accounts for our very rough split. Somewhat different distributions, such as 333 large cities and 667 small ones, would not make a big difference (resulting in 53,300 instead of 65,000 decurions)
106. Jongman, The Economy and Society of Pompeii (op. cit. (n. 1, 2006), 248 n. 35, multiplies his estimate for Italy by five to scale up to the entire Empire, for 100,000 decurions overall. This seems too low because it applies the large share of small towns in Italy to other provinces and neglects the larger councils in the East (see below)
107. See Duncan-Jones, The Economy and Society of Pompeii (op. cit. (n. 23), 82-8
108. See T. R. S. Broughton, 'Roman Asia Minor', in ESAR IV (1938), 814 (60 in Cnidus, 100 in Halicarnassus, 450 in Ephesus, 500 in Oenoanda, and 500-650(?) in Thyatira)
109. W. Langhammer, Die rechtliche und soziale Stellung der Magistratus municipales und der Decuriones . . . (1973), 190 n. 9 (Antioch)
110. Thus Langhammer, Die rechtliche und soziale Stellung der op. cit. (n. 65), 190
111. Duncan-Jones, Die Rechtliche und Soziale Stellung derop. cit. (n. 23), 284-6. In cases in which both the number of councillors and the number of Augustales are known or can be inferred, the latter amounted to 18-20 per cent, 60-67 per cent, 173-218 per cent, and 250 per cent of the former. It is manifestly impossible to deduce an average ratio from these wildly divergent tallies
112. The most detailed study of the Augustales is A. Abramenko, Die munizipale Mittelschicht im kaiserzeitlichen Italien (1993)
113. See J. Persky, 'Pareto's law', Journal of Economic Perspectives 6 (1992), 181-92 for a survey of the debate. For an application to the Forbes 400 (i.e., the 400 richest persons in the United States)
114. see O. S. Klass et al., 'The Forbes 400 and the Pareto wealth distribution', Economics Letters 90 (2006), 290-5
115. and cf. the criticism by Maddison, Economics Lettersop. cit. (n. 2), 47. By contrast, as noted above, the estimate advocated by Milanovic and associates appears to be too high even if we make proper allowance for the considerable uncertainties involved in this kind of exercise
116. Friesen, Economics Lettersop. cit. (n. 3), 337-47 (imperial élites; regional/provincial élites; municipal élites; moderate surplus resources; stable neat subsistence; at subsistence; below subsistence)
117. For the notion of average incomes below subsistence, see comparative evidence for eighteenth-century France (R. W. Fogel, 'New sources and new techniques for the study of secular trends in nutritional status, health, mortality and the process of aging', Historical Methods 26 (1993), 5-43) and more recent developing countries
118. See below, Table 11. Note that this breakdown is similar (yet somewhat more benign: cf. below, at nn. 87-8) to that proposed for late eighteenth-century France where the top 10 per cent of income-earners captured about one-half of all income: see C. Morrisson and W. Snyder, 'The income inequality of France in historical perspective', European Review of Economic History 4 (2000), 74 table 8, and below for similar inequality measures (Gini coefficient)
119. Morrisson and Snyder, European Review of Economic Historyop. cit. (n. 84), 69-70, with further references
120. Duncan-Jones, European Review of Economic Historyop. cit. (n. op. cit. (n. 53), 129
121. Bagnall, European Review of Economic Historyop. cit. (n. 3), 113, 134-7
122. summarized in Scheidel, European Review of Economic Historyop. cit. (n. 3), 52-3
123. These are goods which some people were too poor to consume at all, while the rich would only consume a finite amount of them, rather than an amount that was directly proportionate to their income. Meat is a good example: see Jongman, European Review of Economic Historyop. cit. (n. 1, 2007), 613 for the point that while the very poor may not have eaten any meat and the somewhat better off would have consumed certain amounts, the super-rich could not have ingested vast quantities
124. See, e.g., C. Wickham, Framing the Early Middle Ages (2005), passim for the supposed dominance of élite and state demand
125. The best exposition of the 'consumer-city' concept is P. Erdkamp, 'Beyond the limits of the "consumer city": a model of the urban and rural economy in the Roman world', Historia 50 (2001), 332-56. Urban residence did not preclude non-urban sources of income
126. cf. the hypothetical income scale for large cities in Friesen, Historia op. cit. (n. 3), 337-47
127. See above, n. 52, and cf. Scheidel, Historia op. cit. (n. 3), 50-1 for an earlier sketch
128. For an analysis of the nature of Roman economic growth and its built-in constraints, see now Scheidel, Historiaop. cit. (n. 1, 2009)