A stochastic model for annual reproductive success

American Naturalist

Volumn 175, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 461-468

  Kendall, Bruce E ^a   Wittmann, Marion E ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Clutch size distributions; Demographic stochasticity; Generalized Poisson distribution; Litter size distributions; Nesting success; Reproductive success

Indexed keywords

CLUTCH SIZE; DEMOGRAPHIC METHOD; EXTINCTION RISK; GENOTYPE; LITTER SIZE; NEONATE; NESTING SUCCESS; PERSISTENCE; POISSON RATIO; REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS; STOCHASTICITY; SURVIVAL;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CLUTCH SIZE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; REPRODUCTION; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR; STATISTICS;

ANIMALS; CLUTCH SIZE; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; REPRODUCTION; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR, ANIMAL; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES;

VERTEBRATA;

EID: 77949531335     PISSN: 00030147     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1086/650724     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Akçakaya, H. R. 1991. A method for simulating demographic sto-chasticity. Ecological Modelling 54:133-136.
2. -. 2002. Estimating the variance of survival rates and fecundities. Animal Conservation 5:333-336.
3. -. 2004. Using models for species conservation and management. Pages 3-14 in H. R. Akçakaya, M. A. Burgman, O. Kindvall, C. C. Wood, P. Sjögren-Gulve, J. S. Hatfield, and M. A. McCarthy, eds. Species conservation and management: case studies. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
4. Bartlett, M. S. 1955. An introduction to stochastic processes, with special reference to methods and applications. Cambridge University Press, London.
5. -. 1960. Stochastic population models in ecology and epidemiology. Methuen, London.
6. Chesson, P. 2000. Mechanisms of maintenance of species diversity. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 31:343-366.
7. Conner, M. M., and G. C. White. 1999. Effects of individual heterogeneity in estimating the persistence of small populations. Natural Resource Modeling 12:109-127.
8. Consul, P. C. 1989. Generalized Poisson distributions: properties and applications. Dekker, New York.
9. Consul, P. C., and G. C. Jain. 1973. A generalization of the Poisson distribution. Technometrics 15:791-799.
10. Doak, D. F., W. F. Morris, C. Pfister, B. E. Kendall, and E. M. Bruna. 2005.Correctly estimating how environmental stochasticity influences fitness and population growth. American Naturalist 166:E14-E21.
11. Engen, S., Ø. Bakke, and A. Islam. 1998. Demographic and environmental stochasticity: concepts and definitions. Biometrics 54: 840-846.
12. Ferson, S., L. Ginzburg, and A. Silvers. 1989. Extreme event risk analysis for age-structured populations. Ecological Modelling 47: 175-187.
13. Fox, G. A., and B. E. Kendall. 2002. Demographic stochasticity and the variance reduction effect. Ecology 83:1928-1934.
14. Fox, G. A., B. E. Kendall, J. W. Fitzpatrick, and G. E. Woolfenden. 2006. Consequences of heterogeneity in survival probability in a population of Florida scrub-jays. Journal of Animal Ecology 75: 921-927.
15. Gillespie, J. H. 1975. Natural selection for within-generation variance in offspring number II. Discrete haploid models. Genetics 81:403-413.
16. -. 1977. Natural selection for variances in offspring numbers: a new evolutionary principle. American Naturalist 111:1010-1014.
17. Goodman, D. 1987. The demography of chance extinction. Pages 11-34 in M. Soulé, ed. Viable populations for conservation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
18. Graham, E. M., A. H. Baird, and S. R. Connolly. 2008. Survival dynamics of scleratinian coral larvae and implications for dispersal. Coral Reefs 27:529-539.
19. Harris, T. E. 1963. The theory of branching processes. Springer, Berlin.
20. Johnson, N. L., and S. Kotz. 1969. Discrete distributions. Houghton Mifflin, Boston.
21. Kendall, B. E. 1998. Estimating the magnitude of environmental stochasticity in survivorship data. Ecological Applications 8:184-193.
22. Kendall, B. E., and G. A. Fox. 2003. Unstructured individual variation and demographic stochasticity. Conservation Biology 17:1170-1172.
23. Lacy, R. C. 1993. VORTEX: a computer simulation model for population viability analysis. Wildlife Research 20:45-65.
24. Lehmann, L., and F. Balloux. 2007. Natural selection on fecundity variance in subdivided populations: kin selection meets bet hedging. Genetics 176:361-377.
25. MacArthur, R. H., and E. O. Wilson. 1967. The theory of island biogeography. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
26. Melbourne, B. A., and A. Hastings. 2008. Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity. Nature 454:100-103.
27. Miller, P. S., and R. C. Lacy. 2005. VORTEX: a stochastic simulation of the extinction process. Version 9.50 user's manual. Conservation Breeding Specialist Group (SSC/IUCN), Apple Valley, MN.
28. Morris, W. F., and D. F. Doak. 2002. Quantitative conservation biology: theory and practice of population viability analysis. Sinauer, Sunderland, MA.
29. Morris, W. F., C. A. Pfister, S. Tuljapurkar, C. V. Haridas, C. L. Boggs, M. S. Boyce, E. M. Bruna, et al. 2008. Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability. Ecology 89:19-25.
30. Olaffson, E. B., C. H. Peterson, and W. G. Ambrose. 1994. Does recruitment limitation structure populations and communities of macroinvertebrates in marine soft sediments: the relative significance of presettlement and postsettlement processes. Oceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual Review 32:65-109.
31. Renshaw, E. 1990. Modelling biological populations in space and time. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
32. Richter-Dyn, N., and N. S. Goel. 1972. On the extinction of a colonizing species. Theoretical Population Biology 3:406-433.
33. Robert, A., F. O. Sarrazin, and D. Couvet. 2003. Variation among individuals, demographic stochasticity, and extinction: response to Kendall and Fox. Conservation Biology 17:1166-1169.
34. Shpak, M. 2007. Selection against demographic stochasticity in age-structured populations. Genetics 177:2181-2194.
35. Thorson, G. 1950. Reproductive and larval ecology of marine bottom invertebrates. Biological Reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 25:1-45.
36. Tuljapurkar, S., U. K. Steiner, and S. H. Orzack. 2009. Dynamic heterogeneity in life histories. Ecology Letters 12:93-106.
37. Walters, J. R., L. B. Crowder, and J. A. Priddy. 2002. Population viability analysis for red-cockaded woodpeckers using an individual-based model. Ecological Applications 12:249-260.
38. Wiegand, T., F. Knauer, P. Kaczensky, and J. Naves. 2004. Expansion of brown bears (Ursus arctos) into the eastern Alps: a spatially explicit population model. Biodiversity and Conservation 13:79-114.