Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago

Journal of Great Lakes Research

Volumn 36, Issue SUPPL. 2, 2010, Pages 65-73

  Hayhoe, Katharine ^a,b   Sheridan, Scott ^c   Kalkstein, Laurence ^d   Greene, Scott ^e  

^a TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b ATMOS Research & Consulting   (United States)

^c KENT STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

Author keywords

Chicago; Climate change; Extreme heat; Health impacts; Heat waves; Mortality

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES; ANNUAL AVERAGE; CHICAGO; CLIMATE PROJECTION; EMISSION SCENARIO; EXTREME TEMPERATURES; FUTURE PROJECTIONS; HEALTH IMPACT; HEAT WAVES; MORTALITY RATE; PREVENTIVE MITIGATION; WEATHER CONDITIONS;

POPULATION STATISTICS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT; HEALTH IMPACT; HEALTH RISK; MORTALITY; NATURE-SOCIETY RELATIONS; PUBLIC HEALTH; TEMPERATURE PROFILE; VULNERABILITY;

CHICAGO; ILLINOIS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 77949420384     PISSN: 03801330     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2009.12.009     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Browning C.R., Wallace D., Feinber S., Cagney K.A. Neighborhood social processes, physical conditions, and disaster-related mortality: the case of the 1995 Chicago hear wave. Am. Sociol. Rev. 2006, 71(4):661-678.
2. Census, 2008. U.S. Census population estimates. Website: http://census.gov. Accessed 10 June 2008.
3. Changnon S.A., Kunkel K., Reinke B. Impacts and responses to the 1995 heat wave: a call to action. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1996, 77:1497-1506.
4. Davis R.E., Knappenberger P.C., Novicoff W.M., Michaels P.J. Decadal changes in heat-related human mortality in the eastern United States. Clim. Res. 2002, 22:175-184.
5. Dematte J.E., O'Mara K., Buescher J., Whitney C.G., Forsythe S., McNamee T., Adiga R.B., Ndukwu M. Near-fatal heat stroke during the 1995 heat wave in Chicago. Ann. Intern. Med. 1998, 129(3):173-181.
6. Dettinger M.D., Cayan D.R., Meyer M.K., Jeton A.E. Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099. Climatic Change 2004, 62:283-317.
7. Dhainaut J.F., Claessens Y.E., Ginsburg C., Riou B. Unprecedented heat-related deaths during the 2003 heat wave in Paris: consequences on emergency departments. Critical Care 2004, 8:1-2.
8. Dolney T., Sheridan S. The relationship between extreme heat and ambulance response calls for the city of Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Environ. Res. 2005, 101:94-103.
9. Ebi K.L., Teisberg T.J., Kalkstein L.S., Robinson L., Weiher R.F. Heat watch/warning systems save lives: estimated costs and benefits for Philadelphia 1995-1998. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2004, 85:1067-1074.
10. Ellis F.P., Nelson F. Mortality in the elderly in a heat wave in New York City, August, 1975. Environ. Res. 1978, 15:504-512.
11. Filleul L., Cassadou S., Medina S., Fabres P., Lefranc A., Ellstein D., Le Tertre A., Pascal L., Chardon B., Blanchard M., Declercq C., Jusot J.F., Brouvost H., Ledrans M. The relation between temperature, ozone, and mortality in nine French cities during the heat wave of 2003. Environ. Health Perspect. 2006, 114:1344-1347.
12. Fouillet A., Rey G., Laurent F., Pavillon G., Bellec S., Guihenneuc-Jouyaux C., Clavel J., Jougla E., Hemon D. Excess mortality related to the August 2003 heat wave in France. Int. Arch. Occup. Environ. Health 2006, 80:16-24.
13. Fouillet A., Rey G., Wagner V., Laaidi K., Empereur-Bissonnet P., Le Tertre A., Frayssinet P., Bessemouline P., Laurent F., De Crouy-Chanel P., Jougla E., Hemon D. Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave. Int. J. Epidemiol. 2008, 37:309-317.
14. Hayhoe K., Cayan D., Field C.B., Frumhoff P.C., Maurer E.P., Miller N.L., Moser S.C., Schneider S.H., Cahill K.N., Cleland E.E., Dale L., Drapek R., Hanemann R.M., Kalkstein L.S., Lenihan J., Lunch C.K., Neilson R.P., Sheridan S.C., Verville J.H. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2004, 101:12422-12427.
15. Hayhoe K., VanDorn J., Croley T., Schlegal N., Wuebbles D. Regional climate change projections for Chicago and the US Great Lakes. J. Great Lakes Res. 2010, 36(Supplement 2):7-21.
16. Hoffmann B., Hertel S., Boes T., Welland D., Jockel K. Increased cause-specific mortality associated with 2003 heat wave in Essen, Germany. J. Toxicol. Env. Health 2008, 71:759-765.
17. Kaiser R., Tertre A.L., Schwartz J., Gotway C.A., Daley W.R., Rubin C.H. The effect of the 1995 heat wave in Chicago on all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Am. J. Public Health 2007, 97:S158-162.
18. Kalkstein L., Greene J. An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and possible impacts of a climate change. Environ. Health Perspect. 1997, 105:84-93.
19. Kalkstein, L.S., and Valimont, K.M., 1987. Climate effects on human health. In: Potential effects of future climate changes on forests and vegetation, agriculture, water resources, and human health. EPA Science and Advisory Committee Monograph 25389, 122-152.
20. Kalkstein L.S., Jamason P.F., Greene J.S., Libby J., Robinson L. The Philadelphia hot weather-health watch/warning system: development and application, summer 1995. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1996, 77:1519-1528.
21. Kalkstein L.S., Greene J.S., Mills D.M., Perrin A.D., Samenow J.P., Cohen J.C. The development of analog European heat waves for U.S. cities to analyze impacts on heat-related mortality. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2008, 89:75-85.
22. Klinenberg E. Heat wave: a social autopsy of disaster in Chicago 2002, 328. U. Chicago Press, Chicago.
23. Lagadec, P. and Laroche, H., (2005) Retour sur les rapports d'enqute et d'expertise suite la canicule de l't 2003 Grenoble - Cahiers du GIS Risques Collectifs et Situation de Crise No. 4.
24. Livezey R.E., Tinker R. Some meteorological, climatological, and microclimatological considerations of the severe U.S. heat wave of mid-July 1995. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1996, 77:2043-2054.
25. Martens W.J.M. Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes. Soc. Sci. Med. 1998, 46:331-344.
26. McGeehin M., Mirabelli M. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. Environ. Health Perspect. 2001, 109(Suppl. 2):185-189.
27. Meehl G.A., Tebaldi C. More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science 2004, 305(5686):994-997.
28. Nakićenović N., et al. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios 2000, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
29. National Center for Health Statistics, 2000. Standardized micro-data mortality transcripts. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
30. National Climate Data Center (NCDC), 2004. Billion-dollar weather disasters, 1980-2004. Website: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/reports/billionz.html. Accessed 13 March 2005.
31. Naughton M., Henderson A., Mirabelli M., Kaiser R., Wilhelm J., Kieszak S., Rubin C., McGeehin M. Heat-related mortality during a 1999 heat wave in Chicago. Am. J. Prev. Med. 2002, 22:221-227.
32. O'Neill M., Zanobetti A., Schwartz J. Disparities by race in heat-related mortality in four US cities: the role of air conditioning prevalence. J. Urban Health 2005, 82:191-197.
33. Palecki M.A., Changnon S.A., Kunkel K.E. The nature and impacts of the July 1999 heat wave in the Midwestern United States: learning from the lessons of 1995. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2001, 82:1353-1367.
34. Planton, S., Gillet, M., Deque, M., and Manach, J., 2004. Adaptation to Heat Waves Occurrence in France. Meteo France PowerPoint presentation. Available online at: http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/workshops/other_meetings/application/vnd.ms-powerpoint/planton.ppt.
35. Pope V.D., Gallani M.L., Rowntree P.R., Stratton R.A. The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model - HadCM3. Climate Dynamics 2000, 16:123-146.
36. Robine J., Cheung S., Le Roy S., Van Oyen H., Griffiths C., Michel J.P., Herrmann F. Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. C. R. Biol. 2008, 331:171-U175.
37. Salagnac J. Lessons from the 2003 heat wave: a French perspective. Build. Res. Inf. 2007, 35:450-457.
38. Schär C., Vidale P.L., Lüthi D., Frei C., Häberli, Liniger M.A., Appenzeller C. The role of increasing temperature variability in the European summer heatwaves. Nature 2004, 427:332-336.
39. Schuman S., Anderson C., Oliver J. Epidemiology of successive heat waves in Michigan in 1962 and 1963. JAMA 1964, 189:733-738.
40. Semenza J., Rubin C., Falter K., Selanikio J., Flanders W., Howe H., Wilhelm J. Heat-related deaths during the July 1995 heat wave in Chicago. N. Engl. J. Med. 1996, 335:84-90.
41. Semenza J.C., McCullough J., Flanders D., McGeehin M., Lumpkin J. Excess hospital admissions during the 1995 heat wave in Chicago. Am. J. Prev. Med. 1999, 16:269-277.
42. Shen T., Howe H.L., Alo C., et al. Toward a broader definition of heat-related death: comparison of mortality estimates from medical examiners' classification with those from total death differentials during the July 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois. Am. J. Forensic Med. Pathol. 1998, 19:113-118.
43. Sheridan S.C. The redevelopment of a weather-type classification scheme for North America. Int. J. Climatol. 2002, 22:51-68.
44. Sheridan S.C., Kalkstein L.S. Progress in heat watch-warning system technology. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2004, 85:1931-1941.
45. Sheridan S.C., Kalkstein A.J., Kalkstein L.S. Trends in heat-related mortality in the United States, 1975-2004. Proc., Int. Congr. Biometeorol. 2008, 4.
46. Smoyer K.E. A comparative analysis of heat waves and associated mortality in St. Louis, Missouri-1980-1995. Int. J. Biometeorol. 1998, 42:44-50.
47. Stott P., Stone D., Allen M. Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 2004, 432:610-614.
48. Stouffer R.J., Broccoli A.J., Delworth T.L., Dixon K.W., Gudgel R., Held I., Hemler R., Knutson T., Lee H.C., Schwarzkopf M.D., Soden B., Spelman M.J., Winton M., Zeng F. GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part IV: Idealized Climate Response. Journal of Climate 2006, 19:723-740.
49. Tebaldi C., Hayhoe K., Arblaster J., Meehl G. Going to the extremes: an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change 2006, 79:185-211.
50. Toulemon L., Barbieri M. The mortality impact of the August 2003 heat wave in France: investigating the 'harvesting' effect and other long-term consequences. Popul. Stud. A Demography 2008, 62:39-53.
51. Trigo R., Garcia-Herrera R., Diaz J., Trigo I., Valente M. How exceptional was the early August 2003 heatwave in France?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2005, 32:L10701.
52. Early warning on emerging environmental threats: impacts of summer 2003 heat wave in Europe 2004, United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP, Nairobi.
53. Valleron A.J., Boumendil A. Epidemiology and heat waves: analysis of the 2003 episode in France. C.R. Biol. 2004, 327:1125-1141.
54. Vavrus S., Van Dorn J. Projected future temperature and precipitation extremes in Chicago. J. Great Lakes Res. 2010, 36(Supplement 2):22-32.
55. Washington W.M., Weatherly J.W., Meehl G.A., Semtner A.J., Bettge T.W., Craig A.P., Strand W.G., Arblaster J., Wayland V.B., James R., Zhang Y. Parallel Climate Model (PCM) Control and Transient Simulations. Climate Dynamics 2000, 16:755-774.
56. Whitman S., Good G., Donoghue E.R., Benbow N., Shou W., Mou S. Mortality in Chicago attributed to the July 1995 heat wave. Am. J. Public Health 1997, 87:1515-1518.