Temporal shift in density dependence among North American breeding duck populations

Ecology

Volumn 91, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 571-581

  Murray, Jdennis L ^a   Anderson, Michael G ^b   Steury, Todd D ^c  

^a TRENT UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^b Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research   (Canada)

^c WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

Author keywords

Density dependence; Ducks; Growth rate; Population regulation; Temporal shifts; Time series analysis

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; AUTOCORRELATION; BIRD; BREEDING POPULATION; BREEDING SITE; DENSITY DEPENDENCE; GROWTH RATE; LIFE HISTORY TRAIT; PERTURBATION; TEMPORAL VARIATION; TIME SERIES;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BREEDING; DUCK; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENT; NORTH AMERICA; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; REPRODUCTION; TIME;

ANIMALS; BREEDING; DUCKS; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENT; NORTH AMERICA; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; REPRODUCTION; TIME FACTORS;

NORTH AMERICA;

ANAS; ANIMALIA;

EID: 77949311592     PISSN: 00129658     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/MS08-1032.1     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Beauchamp, W. D., T. D. Nudds, and R. G. Clark. 1996. Duck nest success declines with and without predator management. Journal of Wildlife Management 60:258-264.
2. Bethke, R. W., and T. D. Nudds. 1995. Effects of climate change and land use on duck abundance in Canadian prairieparklands. Ecological Applications 5:588-600.
3. Brook, B. W., and C. J. A. Bradshaw. 2006. Strength of evidence for density dependence in abundance time series of 1198. Ecology 87:1445-1451.
4. Burnham, K. P., and D. R. Anderson. 2002. Model selection and multimodel inference. Springer, New York, New York, USA.
5. Cowardin, L.M., D. S. Gilmer, and C. W. Schaiffer. 1985. Mallard recruitment in the agricultural environment of North Dakota. Wildlife Monographs 92.
6. Dennis, B., P. L. Munholland, and J. M. Scott. 1991. Estimation of growth and extinction parameters for endangered. Ecological Monographs 61:15-143.
7. Dennis, B., and M. R. M. Otten. 2000. Joint effects of density dependence and rainfall on abundance of San Joaquin kit fox. Journal of Wildlife Management 64:388-400.
8. Dennis, B., J. M. Ponciano, S. R. Lele, M. L. Taper, and D. F. Staples. 2006. Estimating density dependence, process noise, and observation error. Ecological Monographs 76:323-341.
9. Dennis, B., and M. L. Taper. 1994. Density dependence in time series observations of natural populations: estimation and testing. Ecological Monographs 64:205-224.
10. Dixon, P. M., and J. H. K. Pechmann. 2005. A statistical test to show negligible trend. Ecology 86:1751-1756.
11. Drever, M. C. 2006. Spatial synchrony of prairie ducks: roles of climate, distance and agricultural cover. Oecologia 147:725-733.
12. Drever, M. C., A. Wins-Purdy, T. D. Nudds, and R. G. Clark. 2004. Decline of duck nest success revisited: relationships with predators and wetlands in dynamic prairie environments. Auk 121:497-508.
13. Efron, B., and R. J. Tibshirani. 1993. An Introduction to the bootstrap. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
14. Freckleton, R. P., A. R. Watkinson, R. E. Green, and W. J. Sutherland. 2006. Census error and detection of density dependence. Journal of Animal Ecology 75:837-851.
15. Hassell, M. P. 1986. Detecting density dependence. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 1:90-93.
16. Hassell, M. P., J. Latto, and R. M. May. 1989. Seeing the wood for the trees: detecting density dependence from existing lifetable studies. Journal of Animal Ecology 58:883-892.
17. Hoekman, S. T., L. S. Mills, D. W. Howeter, J. H. DeVries, and I. J. Ball. 2002. Sensitivity analyses of the life cycle of midcontinent mallards. Journal of Wildlife Management 66:883-900.
18. Jamieson, L. E., and S. P. Brooks. 2004. Density dependence in North American ducks. Animal Biodiversity and Conservation 27:113-128.
19. Johnson, D. H., and J. W. Grier. 1988. Determinants of breeding distributions of ducks. Wildlife Monographs 100.
20. Johnson, D. H., J. D. Nichols, and M. D. Schwartz. 1992. Population dynamics of breeding waterfowl. Pages 446-485 in B. D. J. Batt, A. D. Afton, M. G. Anderson, C. D. Ankney, D. H. Johnson, J. A. Kadlec, and G. L. Krapu, editors. Ecology and management of breeding waterfowl. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA.
21. Lande, R., S. Engen, and B.-E. Ssether. 2003. Stochastic population dynamics in ecology and conservation. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
22. Ljung, G. M., and G. E. P. Box. 1978. On a measure of lack of fit in time series models. Biometrika 65:297-303.
23. Morris, W. F., and D. F. Doak. 2002. Quantitative conservation biology. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts, USA.
24. Myers, R. A., K. G. Bowen, and N. J. Barrowman. 1999. Maximum reproductive rate of fish at low densities. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 56: 2404-2419.
25. Nichols, J. D., F. A. Johnson, and B. K. Williams. 1995. Managing North American waterfowl in the face of uncertainty. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26: 177-199.
26. Patterson, J. H. 1979. Can ducks be managed by regulation? Experiences in Canada. Transactions of the North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference 44:130-139.
27. Podružný, K., J. H. Devries, L. M. Armstrong, and J. J. Rotella. 2002. Long-term response of northern pintails to changes in wetlands and agriculture in the Canadian prairie pothole region. Journal of Wildlife Management 66:993-1010.
28. Redfern, J. V., S. J. Ryan, and W. M. Getz. 2006. Defining herbivore assemblages in the Kruger National Park: a correlative coherence approach. Oecologia 146:632-640.
29. Rodenhouse, N. L., T. W. Sherry, and R. T. Holmes. 1997. Site-dependent regulation of population size: a new synthesis. Ecology 78:2025-2042.
30. Royama, T. 1992. Analytical population dynamics. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
31. Sæther, B.-E., and S. Engen. 2002. Pattern of variation in avian population growth rates. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 357:1185-1195.
32. Sæther, B.-E., S. Engen, and E. Matthysen. 2002. Demographic characteristics and population dynamical patterns of solitary birds. Science 295:2070-2073.
33. Sæther, B.-E., M. Lillegaård, V. Grøtan, M. C. Drever, S. Engen, T. D. Nudds, and K. M. Podruzny. 2008. Geographical gradients in the population dynamics of North American prairie ducks. Journal of Animal Ecology 77:869-882.
34. Sargeant, A. B., R. J. Greenwood, M. A. Sovada, and T. L. Shaffer. 1993. Distribution and abundance of predators that affect duck production: Prairie Pothole Region. Resource Publication 194. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Jamestown, North Dakota, USA.
35. Shenk, T. M., G. C. White, and K. P. Burnham. 1998. Sampling variance effects on detecting density dependence from temporal trends in natural populations. Ecological Monographs 68:445-463.
36. Sibly, R. M., D. Barker, M. C. Denham, J. Hone, and M. Pagel. 2005. On the regulation of populations of mammals, birds, fish, and insects. Science 309:607-610.
37. Smith, G. 1995. A critical review of the aerial and ground surveys of breeding waterfowl in North America. Biological Sciences Report #5, U.S. Department of the Interior, National Biological Service, Washington, D.C, USA.
38. Sokal, R. R., and F. J. Rohlf. 1995. Biometry. Freeman, New York, New York, USA.
39. Solow, A. R., and J. H. Steele. 1990. On sample size, statistical power, and the detection of density dependence. Journal of Animal Ecology 59:1973-1976.
40. Sovada, M. A., R. M. Anthony, and B. D. J. Batt. 2001. Predation on waterfowl in Arctic tundra and prairie breeding areas: a review. Wildlife Society Bulletin 29:6-15.
41. Staples, T. M., M. L. Taper, and B. Dennis. 2004. Estimating population trend and variation for PVA in the presence of sampling error. Ecology 85:9223-9929.
42. Turchin, P. 2003. Complex population dynamics: a theoretical/empirical synthesis. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
43. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2005. Waterfowl population status, 2005. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C, USA.
44. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Canadian Wildlife Service. 1987. Standard operating procedures for waterfowl population and habitat surveys in North America. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, D.C, USA, and Canadian Wildlife Service, Ottawa, Ontario, USA.
45. Vickery, W. L., and T. D. Nudds. 1984. Detection of densitydependent effects on annual duck censuses. Ecology 65:96-104.
46. Viljugrein, H., M. C. Stenseth, G. W. Smith, and G. H. Steinbakk. 2005. Density dependence in North American ducks. Ecology 86:245-254.
47. Wang, G., N. T. Hobbs, R. B. Boone, A. W. Illius, I. J. Gordon, J. E. Gross, and K. L. Hamlin. 2005. Spatial and temporal variability modify density dependence in populations of large herbivores. Ecology 87:95-102.
48. Wilkins, K. A., M. C. Otto, and M. D. Koneff. 2005. Trends in duck breeding populations, 1955-2005. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Bird Management, Laurel, Maryland, USA.
49. Woiwod, I. P., and I. Hanski. 1992. Patterns of density dependence in moths and aphids. Journal of Animal Ecology 61:619-629.
50. Yoccoz, N. G., J. D. Nichols, and T. Boulinier. 2001. Monitoring of biological diversity in space and time. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 16:446-453.