A new prior for bayesian anomaly detection application to biosurveillance

Methods of Information in Medicine

Volumn 49, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 44-53

  Shen, Y ^a   Cooper, G F ^b  

^a NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

Author keywords

Anomaly detection; Bayesian methodS.; Biosurveillance; Efficient inference; Prior probability distributionS.

Indexed keywords

ALGORITHM; ANTHRAX; ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; BIOSURVEILLANCE; EMERGENCY HEALTH SERVICE; EPIDEMIC; HUMAN; LABORATORY DIAGNOSIS; MATHEMATICAL COMPUTING; METHODOLOGY; NORMAL DISTRIBUTION; REPRODUCIBILITY; STATISTICS; SYSTEM ANALYSIS;

ALGORITHMS; ANTHRAX; BAYES THEOREM; BIOSURVEILLANCE; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; EMERGENCY SERVICE, HOSPITAL; FALSE POSITIVE REACTIONS; HUMANS; NORMAL DISTRIBUTION; NUMERICAL ANALYSIS, COMPUTER-ASSISTED; PROBABILITY THEORY; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS;

EID: 76649099788     PISSN: 00261270     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3414/ME09-01-0008     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Wong W-K. Data mining for early disease outbreak detection. Doctoral Dissertation. Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh. 2004.
2. Hauskrecht M, Valko M, Kveton B, Visweswaran S, Cooper GF, editors. Evidence-based anomaly detection in clinical domains. In: Proceedings of the Fall Symposium of the American Medical Informatics Association; 2007. pp 319-332.
3. Fawcett T, Provost F. Adaptive fraud detection. Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery 1997; 1 (3): 291-316.
4. Denning D. An intrusion-detection model. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering. 1987; 13 (2): 222-232.
5. Shewhart WA. Economic control of quality of manufactured product. New York: D. Van Nostrand Company 1931. (A 1981 reprint is available from the American Society for Quality Control.)
6. Page ES. Continuous inspection schemes. Biometrika 1954; 41: 100-115.
7. Roberts SW. Control chart tests based on geometric moving averages. Technometrics 1959; 1: 239-250.
8. Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS, Rubin DB. Bayesian data analysis. London: Chapman & Hall; 1995.
9. Hardy GF. Insurance record. 1889; 8. (Reprinted in Transactions of Actuaries, 1920.)
10. Whitworth WA. Exercise in choice and chance. 1897. (Reprinted by Hafner, New York, 1965.)
11. Tuyl F, Gerlach R, Mengersen K. Posterior predictive arguments in favor of the Bayes-Laplace prior as the consensus prior for binomial and multinomial parameters. Bayesian Analysis 2009; 4 (1): 151-158.
12. Altun Y, Smola A. Unifying divergence minimization and statistical inference via convex duality. In: Proceedings of the 19th Annual Conference on Learning Theory. 2006. pp 139-153.
13. Barndorff-Nielsen O. Information and Exponential families in statistical theory. New York: Wiley; 1978.
14. Song L, Zhang X, Smola A, Gretton A, Scholkopf B. Tailoring density estimation via reproducing kernel moment matching. In: Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Machine Learning 2008; 307: 992-999.
15. Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS, Rubin DB. Appendix A: Standard probability distributions. Bayesian data analysis. London: Chapman & Hall; 1995. p 481.
16. Clayton DG, Kaldor J. Empirical Bayes estimates of age-standardized relative risks for use in disease mapping. Biometrics 1987; 43: 671-681.
17. Mollie A. Bayesian and empirical Bayes approaches to disease mapping. In: Lawson ABea, editor. Disease Mapping and Risk Assessment for Public Health. Chichester: Wiley; 1999.
18. Neill DB, Moore AW, Cooper GF. A Bayesian spatial scan statistic. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 2006; 18: 1003-1010.
19. Burkom HS, Elbert Y, Feldman A, Lin J. Role of data aggregation in biosurveillance detection strategies with applications from ESSENCE. MMWR Morbility and Mortality Weekly Report 2004; Sep 24 (53 Suppl): 67-73.
20. Hogan WR, Cooper GF, Wallstrom GL, Wagner MM, Depinay J-M. The Bayesian aerosol release detector: An algorithm for detecting and characterizing outbreaks caused by an atmospheric release of Bacillus anthracis. Statistics in Medicine 2007; 26: 5225-5252.
21. Weisstein EW. "Incomplete Beta Function." From MathWorld - A Wolfram Web Resource. 2003. Available from: http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ IncompleteBetaFunction.html.
22. Casella G, Berger LR. Statistical Inference (second edition). Australia; Pacific Grove, CA: Thomson Learning; 2002.
23. Hogan WR, Cooper GF, Wagner MM. A Bayesian anthrax aerosol release detector. RODS Technical Report 2004.
24. Fawcett T, Provost F. Activity monitoring: Noticing interesting changes in behavior. In: Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 1999. pp 53-62.
25. Kaufmann A, Meltzer M, Schmid G. The economic impact of a bioterrorist attack: Are prevention and postattack intervention programs justifiable? Emerging Infectious Diseases 1997; 3 (2): 83-94.
26. Wagner MM, Tsui FC, Espino JU, Dato VM, Sittig DF, Caruana RA, et al. The emerging science of very early detection of disease outbreaks. Journal of Public Health Management Practice 2001; 7 (6): 51-59.
27. Edwards W, Miles RF, von Winterfeldt D, editors. Advances in Decision Analysis. Cambridge University Press; 2007.
28. Jiang X. A Bayesian network model for spatiotemporal event surveillance. Doctoral Dissertation. University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh. 2008.
29. Hutwagner LC, Thompson W, Seeman GM. The bioterrorism preparedness and response early aberration reporting system (EARS). Journal of Urban Health 2003; 80 (2, Supplement 1): i89-i96.
30. Serfling RE. Methods for current statistical analysis of excess pneumonia-influenza deaths. Public Health Reports 1963; 78: 494-506.
31. Reis BY, Mandl KD. Time series modeling for syndromic surveillance. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 2003; 3 (2).
32. Goldenberg A, Shmueli G, Caruana RA. Early statistical detection of anthrax outbreaks by tracking over-the-counter medication sales. In: Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences 2002; 99 (8): 5237-5240.
33. Zhang J, Tsui FC, Wagner MM, Hogan WR. Detection of outbreaks from time series data using wavelet transform. AMIA Annual Symposium Proceedings 2003. pp 748-752.
34. West M, Harrison J. Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models. New York: Springer-Verlag; 1989.
35. LeStrat Y, Carrat F. Monitoring epidemiologic surveillance data using hidden Markov models. Statistics in Medicine 1999; 18: 3463-3478.
36. Nobre FF, Monteiro ABS, Telles PR, Williamson GD. Dynamic linear models and SARIMA: a comparison of their forecasting performance in epidemiology. Statistics in Medicine 2001; 20: 3051-3069.
37. Rath T, Carreras M, Sebastiani P. Automated detection of influenza epidemics with hidden Markov models. Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Intelligent Data Analysis 2003; 2810: 521-532.
38. Weisstein EW. "Binomial Theorem." From Math- World - A Wolfram Web Resource. 2006. Available from: http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ BinomialTheorem.html.