Planning of technical flood retention measures in large river basins under consideration of imprecise probabilities of multivariate hydrological loads

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science

Volumn 9, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 1349-1363

  Nijssen, D ^a   Schumann, A ^a   Pahlow, M ^a   Klein, B ^a  

^a RUHR UNIVERSITY BOCHUM   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; DESIGN FLOOD; FLOOD CONTROL; FLOOD DAMAGE; FLOODING; FUZZY MATHEMATICS; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; PROBABILITY; RETENTION; RISK ASSESSMENT; RIVER BASIN; SAMPLING BIAS; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 76149092515     PISSN: 15618633     EISSN: 16849981     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-9-1349-2009     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Berlekamp, J., Zerger, A., Lauterbach, S., Graf, N., Matthies, M., and Argent, R. M.: A decision support system for integrated river basin management of the German Elbe, Australia, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc., 2005.
2. Beven, K. J.: On undermining the science?, Hydrol. Process., 20, 3141-3146, 2006.
3. Blazkova, S. and Beven, K.: Flood frequency estimation by continous simulation for a catchment treated as ungauged (with uncertainty), Water Resour. Res., 38, 1139, doi:10.1029/2001WR000500, 2002.
4. Boender, C. G. E., De Graan, J. G., and Lootsma, F. A.: Multicriteria decision analysis with fuzzy pairwise comparison, Fuzzy Set. Syst., 29, 133-143, 1989.
5. Chang, D.-Y.: Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 95, 649-655, 1996.
6. Cameron, D. S., Beven, K. J., Tawn, J., Blazkova, S., and Naden, P.: Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged upland catchment (with uncertainty), J. Hydrol., 219, 169-187, 1999.
7. Deng, H.: Multicriteria analysis with fuzzy pairwise comparison, the treatment of uncertainity in artificial intelligence, Int. J. Approx. Reason., 21, 215-232, 1999.
8. Favre, A. C., El Adlouni, S., Perreault, L., Thiemonge, N., and Bobee, B.: Multivariate hydrological frequency analysis using copulas, Water Resour. Res., 40, 1-12, W01101, 2004.
9. Fell, R. and Hartford, D.: Landslide Risk Management, in: Landslide Risk Assessment, edited by: Cruden, D. and Fell, R., Balkema, 51-110, 1997.
10. Genest, C. and Favre, A. C.: Everything you always wanted to know about copula modeling but were afraid to ask, J. Hydrol. Eng., 12(4), 347-368, 2007.
11. Grimaldi, S. and Serinaldi, F.: Asymmetric copula in multivariate flood frequency analysis, Adv.Water Resour., 29(8), 1155-1167, 2006.
12. Haimes, Y. Y.: Risk analysis of fracture and failure, Mater. Res. Innov., 2, 16-21, 1998.
13. Hundecha, Y., Pahlow, M., Klein, B., and Schumann, A.: Modelling of daily rainfall for flood risk assessment using a mixed distribution, Water Resour. Res., submitted, 2009.
14. Joe, H.: Multivariate Models and Dependence Concepts, Chapman and Hall, New York, 1997.
15. Kachroo, R. K.: Storage required to augment low flows - a regional study, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 37, 247-261, 1992.
16. Kamrath, P., Disse, M., Hammer, M. and Köngeter, J.: Assessment of discharge through a dike breach and simulation of flood wave propagation, Nat. Hazards, 38, 63-78, 2006.
17. Klein, B., Pahlow, M., Hundecha, Y., and Schumann, A.: Probability analysis of hydrological loads for the design of flood control systems using copulas, J. Hydrol. Eng., submitted, 2009.
18. Klir, G. J. and Smith, R. M.: On measuring uncertainty and uncertainty-based information: Recent developments, Ann. Math. Artif. Intel., 32, 5-33, 2001.
19. Koutsoyiannis, D. and Onof, C.: Rainfall disaggregation using adjusting procedures on a Poisson cluster model, J. Hydrol., 246, 109-122, 2001.
20. Koutsoyiannis, D., Onof, C., and Weather, H.: Multivariate rainfall disaggregation at a fine time scale, Water Resour. Res., 39(7), 1173, doi:10.1029/2002WR001600, 2003.
21. Krupnick, A., Morgenstern, R., Batz, M., Nelson, P., Burtraw, D., Shih, J.-S., and McWilliams, M.: Not a Sure Thing: Making Regulatory Choices Under Uncertainty, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, 233 pp., 2006.
22. Lamb, R.: Confidence intervals for a spatially generalized, continuous simulation flood frequency model for Great Britain, Water Resour. Res., 40, W07501, doi:10.1029/2003WR002428, 2004.
23. Lindström, G., Johansson, B., Persson, M., Gardelin, M., and Bergström, S.: Development and test of the distributed HBV-96 model, J. Hydrol., 201, 272-288, 1997.
24. McMillan, H. K. and Brasington, J.: End-to-end flood risk assessment: A coupled model cascade with uncertainty estimation, Water Resour. Res., 44, W03419, doi:10.1029/2007WR005995, 2008. (Pubitemid 351628549)
25. Merz, B.: Hochwasserrisiken, Grenzen und Möglichkeiten der Risikoabschätzung, E. Schweizerbart'sche Verlagsbuchhandlung (Nägele u. Obermiller) Stuttgart, 2006.
26. Merz, B. and Thieken, A.: Die Bedeutung von extremen Ereignissen in der Risikoquantifizierung, ÖWAV-Seminar 2007, TU Wien, 117-131, 2007.
27. Morss, R. E.: Flood Risk, Uncertainty, and Scientific Information for Decision Making - Lessons from an Interdisciplinary Project, American Meteorological Society, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86(11), 1593-1602, doi:10.1175/BAMS-86-11-1593, 2005.
28. Nelsen, R. B.: An Introduction to Copulas, Springer, New York,1999.
29. Plate, E. J. and Meon, G.: Stochastic aspects of dam safety analysis, Proc. Of JSCE, No. 393/II-9 (Hydraulic and Sanity Eng.), 1-8, 1988.
30. Plate, E. J.: Flood risk and flood management, J. Hydrol., 267, 2-11, 2002.
31. Saaty, T. L.: The analytic hierarchy process - planning, priority setting, resource allocation, 1980.
32. Salvadori, G. and De Michele, C.: Frequency analysis via copulas: Theoretical aspects and applications to hydrological events, Water Resour. Res., 40(12),W12511, doi:10,1029/2004WR003133, 2004.
33. Salvadori, G., De Michele, C., Kottegoda, N. T., and Rosso, R.: Extremes in Nature: An Approach Using Copulas, Springer, Dordrecht, 2007.
34. Sklar, A.: Fonctions de reparttion à n dimensions et leura Marges, Publ. Inst. Stat. Univ. Paris, 8, 220-231, 1959.
35. Slovic, P. and Weber, E. U.: Perception of Risk Posed by Extreme Events, Risk Management strategies in an Uncertain World, Columbia University and Wissenschaftskolleg zu Berlin, New York, 1-21, 2002.
36. Srdjevic, B. and Medeiros, Y.: Fuzzy AHP Assessment of Water Management Plans, Water Resour. Manag., 22, 877-894, 2008.
37. Thieken, A. H., Kreibich, H.,Müller, M., and Merz, B.: Coping withfloods: preparedness, response and recovery of flood-affected residents in Germany in 2002, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 52, 1016-1037, 2007.
38. Van Laarhoven, P. J. M. and Pedrycz, W.: A fuzzy extension of Saaty's priority theory, Fuzzy Set. Syst., 11, 229-241, 1983.
39. Walley, P.: Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities, Chapman and Hall, London, 1991.
40. Zadeh, L. A.: Fuzzy Sets, Information and Control, 8, 338-353, 1965.
41. Zadeh, L. A.: Probability measures of Fuzzy Events, J. Math. Anal. Appl., 23, No.2, August 1968.
42. Zadeh, L. A.: Toward a generalised theory of uncertainty (GTU) - an outline, Inform. Sciences, 172, 1-40, 2005.