Downscaling transient climate change using a Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses stochastic rainfall model

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 381, Issue 1-2, 2010, Pages 18-32

  Burton, A ^a   Fowler, H J ^a   Blenkinsop, S ^a   Kilsby, C G ^a  

^a NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Downscaling; Multi model ensemble; NSRP; Stochastic rainfall model; Transient climate change

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL MAXIMA; ANNUAL RAINFALL; CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS; CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS; CLIMATE SYSTEM; CLIMATIC CHANGES; DAILY RAINFALL; DOWN-SCALING; EXTREME RAINFALL; FUTURE CLIMATE; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; HIGHLY SENSITIVE; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; HYDROLOGICAL SYSTEM; IMPACT STUDY; MANAGEMENT DECISIONS; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; NATURAL VARIABILITY; NONSTATIONARY; PARAMETERIZATIONS; PIECE-WISE; RAINFALL MODELS; RAINFALL SIMULATIONS; RAINFALL STATISTICS; RECTANGULAR PULSE; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; RETURN PERIODS; SCALING FACTORS; SIMULATED TRANSIENTS; SIMULATION METHODOLOGY; SPATIAL SCALE; SPRING-IN; STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING; STOCHASTIC PROPERTIES; TIME HORIZONS; TRANSIENT CLIMATE CHANGE; WINTER RAINFALL;

CLIMATE MODELS; DECISION MAKING; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; RAIN; STOCHASTIC MODELS; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS; TIME SERIES; WATER POLLUTION; WATER QUALITY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DECISION MAKING; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; HYDROLOGICAL REGIME; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; TIME SERIES; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER PLANNING; WATER QUALITY;

FRANCE;

EID: 73649097219     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.10.031     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Allen M.R., Stott P.A., Mitchell J.F.B., Schnur R., and Delworth T.L. Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Nature 407 (2000) 617-620
2. Barth, J.A.C., Grathwohl, P., Fowler, H.J., Bellin, A., Gerzabek, M.H., Lair, G.J., Barceló, D., Petrovic, M., Navarro, A., Négrel, P., Petelet-Giraud, E., Darmendrail, D., Rijnaarts, H., Langenhoff, A., de Weert, J., Slob, A., van der Zaan, B.M., Gerritse, J., Frank, E., Gutierrez, A., Kretzschmar, R., Gocht, T., Steidle, D., Garrido, F., Jones, K.C., Meijer, S., Moeckel, C., Marsman, A., Klaver, G., Vogel, T., Bürger, C., Kolditz, O., Broers, H.P., Baran, N., Joziasse, J., Von Tümpling, W., Van Gaans, P., Merly, C., Chapman, A., Brouyère, S., Aguilar, J.B., Orban, Ph., Tas, N., Smidt, H., 2009. Mobility, turnover and storage of pollutants in soils, sediments and waters: achievements and results by the EU project AquaTerra. A review. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 28(1), 161-173. doi:10.1051/agro:2007060.
3. Benestad R.E. Empirically downscaled multimodel ensemble temperature and precipitation scenarios for Norway. Journal of Climate 15 (2002) 3008-3027
4. Burlando P., and Rosso R. Effects of transient climate change on basin hydrology. 1. Precipitation scenarios for the Arno River, central Italy. Hydrological Processes 16 (2002) 1151-1175
5. Burton A., Kilsby C.G., Fowler H.J., Cowpertwait P.S.P., and O'Connell P.E. RainSim: a spatial temporal stochastic rainfall modelling system. Environmental Modelling and Software 23 12 (2008) 1356-1369 10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.04.003
6. Cavazos T., and Hewitson B.C. Performance of NCEP-NCAR reanalysis variables in statistical downscaling of daily precipitation. Climate Research 28 (2005) 95-107
7. Christensen J.H., Carter T.R., Rummukainen M., and Amanatidis G. Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project. Climatic Change 81 Supplement 1 (2007) 1-6
8. Covey C., AchutaRao K.M., Cubasch U., Jones P., Lambert S.J., Mann M.E., Phillips T.J., and Taylor K.E. An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Global Planetary Change 37 (2003) 103-133
9. Cowpertwait P.S.P. Further developments of the Neyman-Scott clustered point process for modelling rainfall. Water Resources Research 27 (1991) 1431-1438
10. Cowpertwait P.S.P. A generalized spatial-temporal model of rainfall based on a clustered point process. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A 450 (1995) 163-175
11. Cowpertwait P.S.P. A Poisson-cluster model of rainfall: high-order moments and extreme values. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A 454 (1998) 885-898
12. Cowpertwait P.S.P., and O'Connell P.E. A regionalised Neyman-Scott model of rainfall with convective and stratiform cells. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 1 (1997) 71-80
13. Cowpertwait P.S.P., Kilsby C.G., and O'Connell P.E. A space-time Neyman-Scott model of rainfall: empirical analysis of extremes. Water Resources Research 38 8 (2002) 1131 10.1029/2001WR000709
14. Déqué M., Rowell D.P., Lüthi D., Giorgi F., Christensen J.H., Rockel B., Jacob D., Kjellström E., de Castro M., and van den Hurk B. An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Climatic Change 81 Suppl. 1 (2007) 53-70
15. Dwyer, I.J., Reed, D.W., 1995. Allowance for discretization in hydrological and environmental risk estimation, Report No. 123, Institute of Hydrology, UK, 45pp.
16. Fowler H.J., and Kilsby C.G. Implications of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters 30 (2003) 1720 10.1029/2003GL017327
17. Fowler H.J., and Wilby R.L. Beyond the downscaling comparison study. International Journal of Climatology 27 12 (2007) 1543-1545
18. Fowler H.J., and Ekström M. Multi-model ensemble estimates of climate change impacts on UK seasonal precipitation extremes. International Journal of Climatology 29 3 (2009) 385-416
19. Fowler H.J., Kilsby C.G., and O'Connell P.E. A stochastic rainfall model for the assessment of regional water resource systems under changed climatic conditions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 4 2 (2000) 263-282
20. Fowler H.J., Kilsby C.G., O'Connell P.E., and Burton A. A weather-type conditioned multi-site stochastic rainfall model for the generation of scenarios of climatic variability and change. Journal of Hydrology 308 1-4 (2005) 50-66
21. Fowler H.J., Blenkinsop S., and Tebaldi C. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. International Journal of Climatology 27 (2007) 1547-1578
22. Frich P., Alexander L.V., Della-Marta P., Gleason B., Haylock M., Tank A.M.G.K., and Peterson T. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research 19 (2002) 193-212
23. Giorgi F., and Francisco R. Evaluating uncertainties in the prediction of regional climate change. Geophysical Research Letters 27 (2000) 1295-1298
24. Giorgi, F., Hewitson, B., Christensen, J., Hulme, M., Von Storch, H., Whetton, P., Jones, R., Mearns, L., Fu, C., 2001. Regional climate information - evaluation and projections (Chapter 10). In: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C.A., (Eds.), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, pp. 583-638.
25. Goodess C.M., and Palutikof J. Development of daily rainfall scenarios for southeast Spain using a circulation-type approach to downscaling. International Journal of Climatology 18 (1998) 1051-1083
26. Haylock M.R., Cawley G.C., Harpham C., Wilby R.L., and Goodess C.M. Downscaling heavy precipitation over the United Kingdom: a comparison of dynamical and statistical methods and their future scenarios. International Journal of Climatology 26 (2006) 1397-1415
27. Hellström C., Chen D., Achberger C., and Räisänen J. Comparison of climate change scenarios for Sweden based on statistical and dynamical downscaling of monthly precipitation. Climate Research 19 (2001) 45-55
28. Hewitt C.D., and Griggs D.J. Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. Eos 85 (2004) 566
29. Jacob D., Bärring L., Christensen O.B., Christensen J.H., de Castro M., Déqué M., Giorgi F., Hagemann S., Hirschi M., Jones R., Kjellström E., Lenderink G., Rockel B., Sánchez E., Schär C., Seneviratne S.I., Somot S., van Ulden A., and van den Hurk B. An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate. Climatic Change 81 Suppl. 1 (2007) 31-52
30. Jones, P.D., Salmon, M., 1995. Development and integration of a stochastic weather generator into a crop growth model for European agriculture. Mars Project, Final Report to Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Agricultural Information Systems, UK.
31. Jones P.D., Kilsby C.G., Harpham C., Glenis V., and Burton A. UK Climate Projections Science Report: Projections of Future Daily Climate for the UK from the Weather Generator (2009), University of Newcastle, UK ISBN 978-1-906360-06-1
32. Kilsby, C.G., Burton, A., Birkinshaw, S.J., Hashemi, A.M., O'Connell, P.E., 2000. Extreme rainfall and flood frequency distribution modelling for present and future climates. In: Proceedings of the British Hydrological Society Seventh National Hydrology Symposium, pp. 3.51-3.56.
33. Kilsby, C.G., Moaven-Hashemi, A., O'Connell, P.E., 2004. Simulation of rainfall extremes: fitting to observed annual maxima. In: First International Conference on Flood Risk, Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Bath, UK, 7-8 September.
34. Kilsby C.G., Jones P.D., Burton A., Ford A.C., Fowler H.J., Harpham C., James P., Smith A., and Wilby R.L. A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Environmental Modelling and Software 22 (2007) 1705-1719
35. Mitchell T.D. Pattern scaling: an examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates. Climatic Change 60 (2003) 217-242
36. Murphy J.M., Sexton D.M.H., Barnett D.N., Jones G.S., Webb M.J., Collins M., and Stainforth D.A. Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430 (2004) 768-772
37. Murphy J.M., Booth B.B.B., Collins M., Harris G.R., Sexton D.M.H., and Webb M.J. A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 365 (2007) 1993-2028
38. Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, H.J.M., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grubler, A., Jung, T.Y., Kram, T., La Rovere, E.L., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Papper, W., Pitcher, H., Price, L., Riahi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H.-H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., Swart, R., van Rooijen, S., Victor, N., Dadi, Z., 2000. Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 559pp.
39. NERC, 1975. Flood Studies Report, vol. II. Natural Environment Research Council, UK.
40. Onof C., Chandler R.E., Kakou A., Northrop P., Wheater H.S., and Isham V. Rainfall modelling using Poisson-cluster processes: a review of developments. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 14 6 (2000) 384-411
41. Palmer T.N., Shutts G.J., Hagedorn R., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Jung T., and Leutbecher M. Representing model uncertainty in weather and climate prediction. Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Science 33 (2005) 163-193
42. Pope V.D., Gallani M.L., Rowntree P.R., and Stratton R.A. The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Climate Dynamics 16 (2000) 123-146
43. Prudhomme C., Reynard N., and Crooks S. Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now?. Hydrological Processes 16 (2002) 1137-1150
44. Rodriguez-Iturbe I., Cox D.R., and Isham V. Some models for rainfall based on stochastic point processes. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A 410 (1987) 269-288
45. Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Christoph, M., Claussen, M., Dümenil, L., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., 1996. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Report No. 218, Hamburg, Germany, 90pp.
46. Roulier S., Baran N., Mouvet C., Stenemo F., Morvan X., Albrechtsen H.J., Clausen L., and Jarvis N. Controls on atrazine leaching through a soil-unsaturated fractured limestone sequence at Brévilles, France. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology 84 (2006) 81-105
47. Santer, B.D., Wigley, T.M.L., Schlesinger, M.E., Mitchell, J.F.B., 1990. Developing climate scenarios from equilibrium GCM results. Report No. 47, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, 29pp.
48. Scibek J., and Allen D.M. Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels. Water Resources Research 42 (2006) W11405 10.1029/2005WR004742
49. Serrat-Capdevila A., Valdés J.B., Pérez J.G., Baird K., Mata L.J., and Maddock III T. Modeling climate change impacts - and uncertainty - on the hydrology of a riparian system: the San Pedro Basin (Arizona/Sonora). Journal of Hydrology 347 (2007) 48-66 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.08.028
50. Shaw E.M. Hydrology in practice. third ed. (1994), Chapman & Hall 569pp
51. Svensson, C., 2007. Review of methods for deriving areal reduction factors, Report to DEFRA, Project WS194/2/39 (Reservoir safety - long return period rainfall). Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, 23pp.
52. Tebaldi, C., Nychka, D., Mearns, L.O., 2004. From global mean responses to regional signals of climate change: simple pattern scaling, its limitations (or lack of) and the uncertainty in its results In: Proceedings of the 17th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, AMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA.
53. Tebaldi C., Hayhoe K., Arblaster J.M., and Meehl G.A. Going to the extremes; an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change 79 (2006) 185-211
54. Velghe T., Troch P.A., De Troch F.P., and Van de Velde J. Evaluation of cluster-based rectangular pulses point process models for rainfall. Water Resources Research 30 10 (1994) 2847-2857
55. Watts, M., Goodess, C.M., Jones, P.D., 2004. The CRU Daily Weather Generator. BETWIXT Technical Briefing Note 1, Version 2, February 2004, 8pp.
56. Wilby R.L., and Harris I. A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resources Research 42 (2006) W02419 10.1029/2005WR004065
57. Wilby R.L., and Wigley T.M.L. Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Progress in Physical Geography 21 (1997) 530-548
58. Wilks D.S. Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate change studies. Climatic Change 22 (1992) 67-84
59. Zorita E., and von Storch H. The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique: comparison with more complicated methods. Journal of Climate 12 8 (1999) 2474-2489