The affect of the base rate on the extreme dependency score

Meteorological Applications

Volumn 16, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 533-535

  Primo, Cristina ^a   Ghelli, Anna ^a  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Hedging; Rare events; Verification methods

Indexed keywords

BASE RATE; FORECASTING SYSTEM; HEDGING; HIT RATE; PAPER ANALYSIS; RARE EVENTS; STANDARD SCORES; VERIFICATION METHOD;

EXTREME EVENT; GUIDELINE; METHODOLOGY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 70749085122     PISSN: 13504827     EISSN: 14698080     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/met.152     Document Type: Article

References (4)

1. Brill KF. 2009. A general analytic method for assessing sensitivity to bias of performance measures for dichotomous forecasts. Weather and Forecasting 24: 307-318.
2. Coles S. 2001. An Introduction to Statistical Modelling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag: London, 208.
3. Ghelli A, Primo C. 2009. On the use of the extreme dependency score to investigate the performance of a NWP model for rare events. Meteorological Applications. (in press) DOI: 10.1002/met.153.
4. Stephenson DB, Casati B, Ferro CAT, Wilson CA. 2008. The extreme dependency score: a non-vanishing measure for forecasts of rare events. Meteorological Applications 15: 41-50.