On the use of the extreme dependency score to investigate the performance of an NWP model for rare events

Meteorological Applications

Volumn 16, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 537-544

  Ghelli, Anna ^a   Primo, Cristina ^a  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

ECMWF; Precipitation forecasts; Verification methods

Indexed keywords

ERRORS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS; ECMWF; EVENT PROBABILITY; FALSE ALARM RATE; PARTICULAR CONDITION; PRECIPITATION FORECAST; PRECIPITATION THRESHOLD; VERIFICATION METHOD;

PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

EXTREME EVENT; METHODOLOGY; NUMERICAL MODEL; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PROBABILITY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EUROPE;

EID: 70749093538     PISSN: 13504827     EISSN: 14698080     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/met.153     Document Type: Article

References (16)

1. Accadia C, Mariani S, Casaioli M, Lavagnini A, Speranza A. 2003. Sensitivity of precipitation forecast skill scores to bilinear interpolation and a simple nearest-neighbor average method on high-resolution verification grids. Weather and Forecasting 18: 918-932.
2. Bechtold P, Chaboureau J-P, Beljaars A, Betts AK, Koehler M, Miller M, Redelsperger J-L. 2004. The simulation of the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation over land in a global model. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society 130: 3119-3137.
3. Bechtold P, Lalaurette F, Ghelli A, Miller M. 2003. Forecasts of severe convection. ECMWF Newsletter 98: 8-16.
4. Cherubini T, Ghelli A, Lalaurette F. 2002. Verification of precipitation forecasts over the Alpine region using a high-density observing network. Weather and Forecasting 17: 238-249.
5. Coles S. 2001. An Introduction to Statistical Modelling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag: London; 208.
6. Doswell CA III, Davies-Jones R, Keller DL. 1990. On summary measures of skill in rare event forecasting based on contingency tables. Weather and Forecasting 5: 576-585.
7. Ghelli A, Ebert EE. 2008. Editorial, Special issue on forecast verification. Meteorological Applications 15: 1.
8. Goeber M, Wilson CA, Milton SF, Stephenson DB. 2004. Fairplay in the verification of operational quantitative precipitation forecasts. Journal of Hydrology 288: 225-236.
9. Hamill TM, Juras J. 2006. Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology? Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society 132: 2905-2923.
10. Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. 2003. Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science. John Wiley & Sons: Chichester, UK; 240.
11. Lahiri K, Wang JG. 2006. Subjective probability forecasts for recessions. Business Economics 41: 26-37.
12. Marzban C. 1998. Scalar measures of performance in rare-event situations. Weather and Forecasting 13: 753-763.
13. Rabier F, Jarvinen H, Klinker E, Mahfouf J-F, Simmons A. 2000. The ECMWF operational implementation of four-dimensional variational assimilation. I: experimental results with simplified physics. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society 126: 1143-1170.
14. Stephenson DB, Casati B, Ferro CAT, Wilson CA. 2008. The extreme dependency score: a non-vanishing measure for forecasts of rare events. Meteorological Applications 15: 41-50.
15. Thepaut J-N, Andersson E, Beljaars ACM, Hortal M, Janssen P. 2005. Two new cycles of the IFS: Cycle 26r3 and Cycle 28r1. ECMWF Newsletter 102: 26-35.
16. Tompkins AM, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, Benedetti A, Cheinet S, Janisková M, Köhler M, Lopez P, Morcrette J-J. 2004. Moist physical processes in the IFS: progress and plans. ECMWF Technical Memorandum 452: 91.