How much can we trust causal interpretations of fixed-effects estimators in the context of criminality?

Journal of Quantitative Criminology

Volumn 25, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 391-417

  Bjerk, David ^a  

^a CLAREMONT MCKENNA COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

Crime; Fixed effects; Gangs; Marriage; Selection

Indexed keywords

EID: 70450285191     PISSN: 07484518     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10940-009-9073-y     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Acierno R, Kilpatrick DG, Resnick H, Saunders B, De Arellano M, Best C (2000) Assault, PTSD, family substance use, and depression as risk factors for cigarette use in youth: findings from the national survey of adolescents. J Trauma Stress 13(3): 381-396.
2. Acri JB, Grunberg NE (1992) A psychophysical task to quantify smoking cessation-induced irritability: the reactive irritability scale (RIS). Addict Behav 17: 587-601.
3. Apel R, Bushway S, Paternoster R, Brame R, Sweeten G (2008) Using state child labor laws to identify the causal effect of youth employment on deviant behavior and academic achievement. J Quant Criminol 24: 337-362.
4. Ashenfelter O (1978) Estimating the effect of training programs on earnings. Rev Econ Stat 60: 47-57.
5. Berntson GG, Beattie MS, Walker JM (1976) Effects of nicotinic and muscarinic compounds on biting attack in the cat. Pharmacol Biochem Behav 5: 235-239.
6. Bloklund AAJ, Nieuwbeerta P (2005) The effects of life circumstances on longitudinal trajectories of offending. Criminology 43: 1203-1240.
7. Bryk AS, Raudenbush SW (1992) Hierarchical linear models: application and data analysis methods. Sage, Newbury Park.
8. Burt RD, Dinh KT, Peterson AV Jr, Sarason IG (2000) Predicting adolescent smoking: a prospective study of personality variables. Prev Med 30: 115-125.
9. Bushway S, Brame R, Paternoster R (1999) Assessing stability and change in criminal offending: a comparison of random effects, semiparametric, and fixed effects modeling strategies. J Quant Criminol 15(1): 23-61.
10. Chaiken JM, Chaiken MR (1990) Drugs and predatory crime. In: Tonry M, Wilson JQ (eds) Drugs and crime. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
11. Chen X, Unger JB, Palmer P, Weiner MC, Johnson CA, Wong MM, Austin G (2002) Prior cigarette smoking initiation predicting current alcohol use: evidence for a gateway drug effect among California adolescents from eleven ethnic groups. Addict Behav 27(5): 799-817.
12. Cherek DR (1981) Effects of smoking different doses of nicotine on human aggressive behavior. Psychopharmacology 75: 339-345.
13. Driscoll P, Baettig K (1981) Selective inhibition by nicotine of shock-induced fighting in the rat. Pharmacol Biochem Behav 14: 175-179.
14. Farrington DP (1988) Studying changes within individuals: the causes of offending. In: Ruter M (ed) Studies of psychosocial risk: the power of longitudinal data. Cambridge University Press, New York.
15. Farrington DP, West DP (1995) Effects of marriage, separation, and children on offending by adult males. In: Blau ZS, Hagan J (eds) Current perspectives on aging and the life cycle, volume 4: delinquency and disrepute in the life course. JAI, Greenwich, CT.
16. Farrington DP, Gallagher B, Morley L, Ledger RJ, West DJ (1986) Unemployment, school leaving, and crime. Br J Criminol 26: 335-356.
17. Fleming R, Leventhal H, Glynn K, Ershler J (1989) The role of cigarettes in the initiation and progression of early substance use. Addict Behav 14: 261-272.
18. French MT, McGeary KA, Chitwood D, McCoy CB, Inciardi JA, McBride D (2000) Chronic drug use and crime. Subst Abuse 21(2): 95-109.
19. Furgusson DM, Swain-Campell NR, John Horwood L (2000) Deviant peer affiliations, crime and substance use: a fixed effects regression analysis. August, Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology.
20. Giordano PC, Cernkovich SA, Rudolph JL (2002) Gender crime, and desistance: toward a theory of cognitive transformation. Am J Sociol 107: 990-1064.
21. Gordon RA, Lahey BB, Kawai E, Loeber R, Stouthamer-Loeber M, Farrington D (2004) Anti-social behavior and youth gang membership: selection and socialization. Criminology 42(1): 55-87.
22. Grogger J (1995) The effects of arrests on the employment and earnings of young men. Q J Econ 110(1): 51-71.
23. Halaby CN (2004) Panel models in sociological research: theory into practice. Annu Rev Sociol 30: 507-544.
24. Hausman J, Taylor W (1981) Panel data and unobervable individual effects. Econometrica 49: 1377-1398.
25. Haynie DL, Giordano PC, Manning WD, Longmore MA (2005) Adolescent romantic relationships and delinquency involvement. Criminology 43(1): 177-210.
26. Heckman JJ, Smith JA (1999) The pre-programme earnings dip and the determinants of participation in a social programme. Implications for simple programme evaluation strategies. Econ J 109: 313-348.
27. Hernan MA, Brumback B, Robins JM (2000) Marginal structural models to estimate the causal effect of zidovudine on the survival of HIV-positive men. Epidemiology 11: 561-570.
28. Hirschi T, Gottfredson M (1995) Control theory and the life-course perspective. Stud Crime Crime Prev 4(2): 131-142.
29. Hoffman JP, Xu J (2002) School activities, community service, and delinquency. Crime Delinq 48: 568-591.
30. Horney J, Wayne Osgood D, Marshall IH (1995) Criminal careers in the short-term: intra-individual variability in crime and its relation to local life circumstances. Am Sociol Rev 60: 655-673.
31. Hsiao C (1986) Chapter 3: Simple regression with variable intercepts. Analysis of panel data. University of Cambridge Press, Cambridge UK.
32. Hutchinson RR, Emley GB (1973) Effects of nicotine on avoidance, conditioned suppression and aggression response measures in animals and man. In: Dunn WL (ed) Smoking behavior: motives and incentives. Winston, Washington.
33. Imbens G, Angrist J (1994) Identification and estimation of local average treatment effects. Econometrica 62(2): 467-475.
34. Jamner LD, Shapiro D, Jarvik ME (1999) Nicotine reduces the frequency of anger reports in smokers and nonsmokers with high but not low hostility: an ambulatory study. Exp Clin Psychopharmacol 7: 454-463.
35. Kassel JD, Paronis CA, Stoud LR (2003) Smoking, stress, and negative affect: correlation, causation, and context across stages of smoking. Psychol Bull 129(2): 270-304.
36. King RD, Massoglia M, Macmillan R (2007) The context of marriage and crime: gender, the propensity to marry, and offending in early adulthood. Criminology 45: 33-65.
37. Koval JJ, Pederson LL (1999) Stress-coping and other psychosocial risk factors: a model for smoking in grade 6 students. Addict Behav 24(2): 207-218.
38. Laub JH, Sampson RJ (1993) Turning points in the life course: why change matters to the study of crime. Criminology 31: 301-325.
39. Lloyd D, Taylor J (2004) Stress as a distal predictor of heavy smoking initiation in young people. Paper presented at the Annual meeting of the American Sociological Association.
40. McKinnish T (2008) Panel data models and transitory fluctuations in the explanatory variable. Adv Econom 21: 335-358.
41. Nagin DS, Farrington DP (1992a) The stability of criminal potential from childhood to adulthood. Criminology 30: 235-260.
42. Nagin DS, Farrington DP (1992b) The onset and persistence of offending. Criminology 30: 501-523.
43. Osgood DW, Wilson JK, O'Malley PM, Bachman JG, Johnston LD (1996) Routine activities and individual deviant behavior. Am Sociol Rev 61: 635-655.
44. Robins JM, Hernan MA, Brumback B (2000) Marginal structural models and causal inference in epidemiology. Epidemiology 11(5): 550-560.
45. Rodgers RJ (1979) Effects of nicotine, mecamylamine, and hexamethonium on shock-induced fighting, pain reactivity, and locomotor behavior in rats. Psychopharmacology 66: 93-98.
46. Sampson RJ, Laub JH (1990) Crime and deviance over the life course: the salience of adult social bonds. Am Sociol Rev 55: 609-627.
47. Sampson RJ, Laub JH (1993) Crime in the making: pathways and turning points through life. Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
48. Sampson RJ, Laub JH, Wimer C (2006) Does marriage reduce crime? A counterfactual approach to within-individual causal effects. Criminology 44(3): 465-508.
49. Schechter MD, Rand MJ (1974) Effects of acute deprivation of smoking on aggression and hostility. Psychopharmacologia 35: 19-28.
50. Siqueira L, Diab M, Bodian C, Rolnitzky L (2000) Adolescents becoming smokers: the roles of stress and coping methods. J Adolesc Health 2000(27): 399-408.
51. Solon G (1989) The value of panel data in economic research. In: Kasprzyk D, Duncan G, Kalton G, Singh MP (eds) Panel surveys. Wiley, New York, pp 486-496.
52. Stewart L, Livson N (1966) Smoking and rebelliousness: a longitudinal study from childhood to maturity. J Consult Psychol 30(3): 225-229.
53. Stolzenberg L, D'Alessio SJ (2007) The effect of divorce on domestic crime. Crime Delinq 53: 281-302.
54. Torabi M, Bailey WJ, Maid-Jabbari M (1993) Cigarette smoking as a predictor of alcohol and other drug use by children and adolescents: evidence of the 'gateway drug' effect. J Sch Health 63(7): 302-306.
55. Turner CF, Kim L, Rogers SM, Lindberg LD, Pleck JH, Sonenstein FL (1998) Adolescent sexual behavior, drug use, and violence: increased reporting with computer survey technology. Science 280: 867-873.
56. Warr M (1998) Life-course transitions and desistance from crime. Criminology 36: 183-216.
57. Wills TA, Sandy JM, Yaeger AM (2002) Stress and smoking in adolescence: a test of directional hypotheses. Health Psychol 21(2): 122-130.
58. Winship C, Morgan SL (1999) The estimation of causal effects from observational data. Annu Rev Sociol 25: 659-706.
59. Wooldridge JM (2002) Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. MIT, Cambridge.