Analysis of quantitative precipitation forecasts using the Dynamic State Index

Atmospheric Research

Volumn 94, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 694-703

  Claussnitzer A ^a   Nevir P ^a  

^a FREIE UNIVERSITÄT BERLIN   (Germany)

Author keywords

COSMO model; Dynamic State Index; Forecast time; Quantitative precipitation forecasts

Indexed keywords

ADIABATIC SOLUTION; ATMOSPHERIC FLOWS; COSMO MODEL; DEEP CONVECTION; DYNAMIC FORECAST; DYNAMIC PARAMETERS; DYNAMIC STATE; DYNAMIC THRESHOLD; FORECAST TIME; GRID RESOLUTION; INITIAL VALUES; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS; PRECIPITATION EVENTS; PRECIPITATION FORECAST; PRECIPITATION PROCESS; PRIMITIVE EQUATIONS; QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST; SPATIAL RESOLUTION; STATISTICAL EVALUATION; WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL; WEATHER SERVICES;

ATMOSPHERIC MOVEMENTS; DYNAMIC MODELS; FUNCTION EVALUATION; IMAGE RESOLUTION; NEON;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION; CLIMATE PREDICTION; FORECASTING METHOD; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; SPATIAL RESOLUTION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 70449646234     PISSN: 01698095     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.08.013     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. Ahrens B., and Beck A. On up-scaling of rain gauge data for evaluating numerical weather prediction models. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 99 (2008) 155-167
2. Banacos P.C., and Schultz D.M. The use of moisture flux convergence in forecasting convective initiation: historical and operational perspectives. Weather Forecast. 20 (2005) 351-366
3. Casati B., Ross G., and Stephenson B.B. A new intensity-scale approach for the verification of spatial precipitation forecasts. Meteorol. Appl. 11 (2004) 141-154
4. Claußnitzer A., Langer I., Névir P., Reimer E., and Cubasch U. Process-oriented statistical-dynamical evaluation of LM precipitation forecasts. Adv. Geosci. 16 (2008) 33-41
5. Claußnitzer A., Névir P., Langer I., Reimer E., and Cubasch U. Scale-dependent analyses of precipitation forecasts and cloud properties using the Dynamic State Index. Meteorol. Z. 17 6 (2008) 813-825
6. Cressman G.P. An operational objective analysis system. Mon. Weather Rev. 87 (1959) 367-374
7. Doms G., Schättler U., Doms G., and Schättler U. The Nonhydrostatic Limit-area Model LM (Lokal-Modell) of DWD. Part 1: Scientific Documentation (1999), Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach. http://www.cosmo-model.org (available from http://www.cosmo-model.org), P.O.Box 100465, D-63004, Offenbach
8. Döös B.R. Numerical weather forecasting with the barotropic model. Lectures on numerical short-range weather prediction, World Meteorological Organization Seminar at the World Meteorological Centre in Moscow 1965 (1969), USSR, Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad 188-209
9. Ebert E.E., and McBride J.L. Verification of precipitation in weather systems: determination of systematic errors. J. Hydrol. 239 (2000) 179-202
10. Heimann D., and Kurz M. The Munich hailstorm of July 12, 1984-a discussion of the synoptic situation. Beitr. Phys. Atmos. 58 (1985) 528-544
11. Hoskins B.J., McIntyre M.E., and Robertson A.W. On the use and significance of isentropic vorticity maps. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 111 (1985) 877-946
12. Houze Jr. R.A. Mesoscale convective systems. Rev. Geophys. 42 (2004) RG4003 10.1029/2004RG000150
13. Houze Jr. R.A., and Hobbs P.V. Organization and structure of precipitating cloud systems. Adv. Geophys. 24 (1982) 225-315
14. Konrad II Ch.E. Synoptic-scale features associated with warm season heavy rainfall over the interior southeastern United States. Weather Forecast. 12 (1997) 557-571
15. Langer I., and Reimer E. Separation of convective and stratiform precipitation for a precipitation analysis of the local model of the German Weather Service. Adv. Geosci. 10 (2007) 159-165
16. Murphy A.H., and Winkler R.L. A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Weather Rev. 115 (1987) 1330-1338
17. Névir P. Ertel's vorticity theorems, the particle relabelling symmetry and the energy-vorticity theory of fluid mechanics. Meteorol. Z. 13 6 (2004) 485-498
18. Palmén E., and Holopainen E.O. Divergence, vertical velocity and conversion between potential and kinetic energy in an extratropical disturbance. Geophysica 8 (1962) 89-113
19. Reimer E., and Scherer B. An operational meteorological diagnostic system for regional air pollution analysis and long term modelling. In: Dop X.H.V., and Kallos G. (Eds). Air Pollution Modelling and its Application. NATO Challenges of Modern Society (1992), Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publisher, New York 565-572
20. Rezacova D., Sokola Z., and Pecicea P. A radar-based verification of precipitation forecast for local convective storms. Atmos. Res. 83 (2007) 211-224
21. Rose B.E.J., and Lin Ch.A. Precipitation from vertical motion: a statistical diagnostic scheme. Int. J. Climatol. 23 (2003) 903-919
22. Schär C. A generalization of Bernoulli's theorem. J. Atmos. Sci. 50 (1993) 1437-1443
23. Schönwiese C.D. Praktische Statistik für Meteorologen und Geowissenschaftler, 4. Aufl (2006), Gebrüder Borntraeger, Berlin-Stuttgart
24. Schulz J.-P. Introducing the Lokal-Modell LME at the German Weather Service. COSMO Newsl. 5 (2005) 168-169. http://www.cosmo-model.org available from http://www.cosmo-model.org
25. Spar J. A suggested technique for quantitative precipitation forecasting. Mon. Weather Rev. 81 8 (1953) 217-221
26. Tutison B., Harris D., and Foufoula-Georgiou E. Scale issues in verification of precipitation forecasts. J. Geophys. Res. 106 D11 (2001) 11,775-11,784
27. Weber T., and Névir P. Storm tracks and cyclone development using the theoretical concept of the Dynamic State Index (DSI). Tellus 60A (2008) 1-10 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00272.x
28. Weiss J. The dynamics of enstrophy transfer in two-dimensional hydrodynamics. Physica D 48 (1991) 273-294
29. Wernli H., Paulat M., Hagen M., and Frei C. SAL-a novel quality measure for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts. Mon. Weather Rev. 136 11 (2008) 4470-4487
30. Wilks D.S. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2. ed. (2006), Academic Press, New York
31. Wulfmeyer V., Behrendt A., Bauer H.-S., Kottmeier C., Corsmeier U., Adrian G., Blyth A., Graig G., Schumann U., Hagen M., Crewell S., Di Girolamo P., Flamant C., Miller M., Mobbs S., Richard E., Rotach M., Arpagaus M., Ruschenberg H., Schlussel P., Koenig M., Gartner V., Steinacker R., Dorninger M., Turner D.D., Weckwerth T., Hense A., and Simmer C. The convective and orographically-induced precipitation study: a research and development project of the World Weather Research Program for improving quantitative precipitation forecasting in low-mountain regions. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89 10 (2008) 1477-1486 10.1175/2008BAMS2367.1