On forecasting large and infrequent snow avalanches

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Volumn 59, Issue 2-3, 2009, Pages 234-241

  Schweizer, Jürg ^a   Mitterer, Christoph ^a   Stoffel, Lukas ^a  

^a WSL INSTITUTE FOR SNOW AND AVALANCHE RESEARCH SLF   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Avalanche forecasting; Avalanche frequency; Snow avalanche; Snow stability evaluation

Indexed keywords

AVALANCHE FORECASTING; AVALANCHE FREQUENCY; CONTROL SERVICES; EUROPEAN ALPS; FALSE ALARM RATIO; PRECIPITATION DATA; PROTECTION WORK; RESIDENTIAL AREAS; RETURN PERIODS; SAFETY CONCEPTS; SNOW AVALANCHE; SNOW DEPTHS; SNOW STABILITY EVALUATION; SNOW STORMS;

FORECASTING; METEOROLOGICAL PROBLEMS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); SNOW MELTING SYSTEMS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

AVALANCHES (SNOWSLIDES);

AVALANCHE; FORECASTING METHOD; FREQUENCY ANALYSIS; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; SNOW;

EID: 70350120724     PISSN: 0165232X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2009.01.006     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Ancey C., Meunier M., and Richard D. Inverse problem in avalanche dynamics models. Water Resour. Res. 39 4 (2003) 1099 10.1029/2002WR001749
2. Ancey C., Gervasoni C., and Meunier M. Computing extreme avalanches. Cold Reg. Sci. Technol. 39 2-3 (2004) 161-180
3. Barbolini M., Natale L., and Savi F. Effects of release conditions uncertainty on avalanche hazard mapping. Nat. Hazards 25 (2002) 225-244
4. Blattenberger G., and Fowles R. Road closure to mitigate avalanche danger: a case study for Little Cottonwood Canyon. Int. J. Forecast. 11 1 (1995) 159-174
5. Breiman L., Friedman J.H., Olshen R.A., and Stone C.J. Classification and Regression Trees (1998), CRC Press, Boca Raton, U.S.A 368 pp.
6. Bründl M., McAlpin M.C., Gruber U., and Fuchs S. Application of the marginal cost approach and cost-benefit analysis to measures for avalanche risk reduction - a case study from Davos, Switzerland. In: Ammann W.J., Dannenmann S., and Vulliet L. (Eds). RISK 21 - Coping with Risks due to Natural Hazards in the 21th Century, Ascona, Switzerland, 28 November - 3 December 2004 (2006), Taylor & Francis Group, London 155-168
7. Burkard A., and Salm B. Die Bestimmung der mittleren Anrissmächtigkeit d0 zur Berechnung von Fliesslawinen. Interner Bericht vol. 668 (1992), Eidg. Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung 16 pp.
8. Doswell C.A., Davie-Jones R., and Keller D.L. On summary measures of skill in rare event forecasting based on contingency-tables. Weather Forecast. 5 4 (1990) 576-585
9. Fawcett T. An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recogn. Lett. 27 8 (2006) 861-874
10. Föhn P., and Meister R. Determination of avalanche magnitude and frequency by direct observations and/or with aid of indirect snowcover data. Proceedings IUFRO/FAO Colloquium on Research on Small Torrential Watersheds (incl. Avalanches), Grenoble, France, June 1981. Mitteilungen der forstlichen Bundesversuchsanstalt, Vienna, Austria vol. 144 (1982) 207-228
11. Floyer J.A., and McClung D.M. Numerical avalanche prediction: Bear Pass, British Columbia, Canada. Cold Reg. Sci. Technol. 37 3 (2003) 333-342
12. Gruber U., and Margreth S. Winter 1999: a valuable test of the avalanche-hazard mapping procedure in Switzerland. Ann. Glaciol. 32 (2001) 328-332
13. Hendrikx J., Owens I., Carran W., and Carran A. Avalanche activity in an extreme maritime climate: the application of classification trees for forecasting. Cold Reg. Sci. Technol. 43 1-2 (2005) 104-116
14. Kantz H., Altmann E.G., Hallerberg S., Holstein D., and Riegert A. Dynamical interpretation of extreme events: predictability and predictions. In: Jentsch V., Kantz H., and Albeverio S. (Eds). Extreme Events in Nature and Society (2006), Springer, Berlin, Germany 69-93
15. McClung D.M. The encounter probability for mountain slope hazards. Can. Geotech. J. 36 (1999) 1195-1196
16. Mears A.I. Snow-avalanche hazard analysis for land-use planning and engineering. Bulletin. Colorado Geological Survey vol. 59 (1992), Department of Natural Resources, Denver CO, U.S.A 55 pp.
17. Salm B. Lawinenkunde für den Praktiker (1982), Verlag des Schweizer Alpen-Club SAC, Bern, Switzerland 148 pp.
18. Schneebeli M., Laternser M., Föhn P., and Ammann W. Wechselwirkungen zwischen Klima, Lawinen und technischen Massnahmen. Nationales Forschungsprogramm "Klimaänderungen und Naturkatastrophen" (NFP 31), Schlussbericht. vdf Hochschulverlag an der ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland (1998) 134 pp.
19. Schweizer J. On the predictability of snow avalanches. In: Campbell C., Conger S., and Haegeli P. (Eds). Proceedings ISSW 2008, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, Canada, 21-27 September 2008 (2008) 688-692
20. Schweizer J., and Wiesinger T. Snow profile interpretation for stability evaluation. Cold Reg. Sci. Technol. 33 2-3 (2001) 179-188
21. Sovilla B., Burlando P., and Bartelt P. Field experiments and numerical modeling of mass entrainment in snow avalanches. J. Geophys. Res. 111 F3 (2006) F03007
22. Spiegel M.R., and Stephens L.J. Schaum's Outline of Theory and Problems of Statistics. Schaum's Outline Series (1999), McGraw-Hill, New York 538 pp
23. Stoffel A., Meister R., and Schweizer J. Spatial characteristics of avalanche activity in an alpine valley - a GIS approach. Ann. Glaciol. 26 (1998) 329-336
24. Stoffel L., and Schweizer J. Guidelines for avalanche control services: organization, hazard assessment and documentation - an example from Switzerland. In: Campbell C., Conger S., and Haegeli P. (Eds). Proceedings ISSW 2008, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, Canada, 21-27 September 2008 (2008) 483-489
25. Wilhelm C. Quantitative risk analysis for evaluation of avalanche protection projects. In: Hestnes E. (Ed). 25 Years of Snow Avalanche Research, Voss, Norway, 12-16 May 1998 (1998), Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway 288-293
26. Wilks D.S. Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences: an introduction. International Geophysics, 59 (1995), Academic Press, San Diego CA, U.S.A 467 pp.