A weights-of-evidence model for mapping the probability of fire occurrence in lincoln county, Nevada

Annals of the Association of American Geographers

Volumn 99, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 712-727

  Dilts, Thomas E ^a   Sibold, Jason S ^a   Biondi, Franco ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEVADA   (United States)

Author keywords

Great Basin; Lightning strike density; Pinyon juniper woodlands; Spatial analysis; Wildfire

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; ELEVATION; LIGHTNING; MAPPING; NUMERICAL MODEL; PROBABILITY; SOIL WATER; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; SPATIAL DATA; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; TOPOGRAPHY; VEGETATION COVER; WILDFIRE; WOODLAND;

BASIN AND RANGE PROVINCE; GREAT BASIN; LINCOLN COUNTY [NEVADA]; NEVADA; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

JUNIPERUS; PINUS EDULIS;

EID: 70049113477     PISSN: 00045608     EISSN: 14678306     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00045600903066540     Document Type: Article

References (76)

1. Adams, D. K., and A. C. Comrie. 1997. The North American monsoon. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (10): 2197-213.
2. Agee, J. K. 1993. Fire ecology of Pacific Northwest forests. Washington, DC: Island Press.
3. Agterberg, F. P., and Q. Cheng. 2002. Conditional independence test for weights-of-evidence modeling. Natural Resources Research 11 (4): 249-55.
4. Allen, C. D. 2002. Lots of lightning and plenty of people: An ecological history of fire in the upland Southwest. In Fire, native peoples, and the natural landscape, ed. T. R. Vale, 143-93. Washington, DC: Island Press.
5. Aspinall, R. J. 1992. An inductive modeling procedure based on Bayes' theorem for analysis of pattern in spatial data. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems 6 (2): 105-21.
6. Baisan, C. H., and T. W. Swetnam. 1990. Fire history on a desert mountain range: Rincon Mountain Wilderness, Arizona, U.S.A. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 20:1559-69.
7. Baker, W. L. 2003. Fires and climate in forested landscape in the U.S. Rocky Mountains. In Fire and climatic change in temperate ecosystems of the western Americas, ed. T. T. Veblen, W. L. Baker, G. Montenegro, and T. W. Swetnam, 120-57. New York: Springer.
8. Baker, W. L., and D. J. Shinneman. 2004. Fire and restoration of piñon-juniper woodlands in the western United States: A review. Forest Ecology and Management 189:1-21.
9. Bonham-Carter, G.F. 1994.Geographicinformationsystemsfor geoscientists: Modelling with GIS. Ottawa, ON, Canada: Pergamon.
10. Bonham-Carter, G. F., F. P. Agterberg, and D. F. Wright. 1988. Integration of geological datasets for gold exploration in Nova Scotia. American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 54:1585-92.
11. Bonham-Carter, G. F., F. P. Agterberg, and D. F. Wright. 1989. Weights of evidence modeling: A new approach to mapping mineral potential. Ottawa, ON, Canada: Geological Survey of Canada.
12. Charlet, D. A. 1996. Atlas of Nevada conifers: A phytogeographic reference. Reno: University of Nevada Press.
13. Chew, J. 2007. User guide for SIMPPLLE, version 2.5 Missoula, MT: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.
14. Chung, C.F.,and A.G. Fabbri.1999.Probabilisticprediction models for landslide hazard mapping. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing 65 (12): 1389-99.
15. Clark, J. S. 1990. Fire and climate change during the last 750 yr in northwestern Minnesota. Ecological Monographs 60 (2): 135-59.
16. Daly, C., R. P. Neilson, and D. L. Phillips. 1994. A statistical- topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. Journal of Applied Meteorology 33:140-58.
17. Davis, A.C. 2007.Schwarzenegger orders wildfire review. The Associated Press, 6 November. http://www.firerescue1.com/wildland/articles/317838-Schwarzenegger-order s-wildfire-review/ (last accessed 22 June 2009).
18. Dickson, B. G., J. W. Prather, Y. Xu, H. M. Hampton, E. N. Aumack, and T. D. Sisk. 2006. Mapping the probability of large fire occurrence in northern Arizona, USA. Landscape Ecology 21:747-61.
19. ESRI. 2007. ArcGIS, version 9.1. Redlands, CA: ESRI.
20. Felicísimo, A. M., E. Francés, J. M. Fernández, A. González- Diez, and J. Varas. 2002. Modeling the potential distribution of forests with a GIS. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 68 (5):455-61.
21. Grayson, D. K. 1993. The desert's past: A natural prehistory of the Great Basin. Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution Press.
22. Hall, B. L. 2007. Precipitation associated with lightning- ignited wildfires in Arizona and New Mexico. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16:242-54.
23. Hann, W., D. Havline, A. Shlisky, K. Schon, S. Barrett, T. DeMeo, K. Pohl et al. 2003. Interagency and the Nature Conservancy fire regime condition class website. Washington, DC: U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of the interior, The Nature Conservancy, and Systems for Environmental Management.
24. Hessl, A. E., D. McKenzie, and R. Schellhaas. 2004. Drought and Pacific decadal oscillation affect fire occurrence in the inland Pacific Northwest. Ecological Applications 14:425-42.
25. Heyerdahl, E. K., L. B. Brubaker, and J. K. Agee. 2001. Spatial controls of historical fire regimes: A multiscale example from the interior West, USA. Ecology 82 (3): 660-78.
26. Heyerdahl, E. K., P. Morgan, and J. P. Riser II. 2008. Multiseason climate synchronized historical fires in dry forests (1650-1900), northern Rockies, USA. Ecology 89 (3): 705-16.
27. Higgins, R. W., Y. Yao, and X. L. Wang. 1997. Influence of the North American monsoon system on the U.S. summer precipitation regime. Journal of Climate 10:2600-22.
28. Huffines, G. R., and R. E. Orville. 1999. Lightning ground flash density and thunder storm duration in the continental United States: 1989-96. Journal of Applied Meteorology 38:1013-19.
29. Iversen, G. R. 1984. Bayesian statistical inference. London: Sage.
30. Knapp, P. A. 1996. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) dominance in the Great Basin desert: History, persistence, and influences to human activities. Global Environmental Change 6 (1): 37-52.
31. Knapp, P. A. 1997. Spatial characteristics of regional wildfire frequencies in Intermountain West grass-dominated communities. The Professional Geographer 47 (1): 39-51.
32. Knapp, P. A. 1998. Spatio-temporal characteristics of large Inter-mountain West grassland fires. Global Ecology and Bio-geography Letters 7:259-73.
33. Kolden, C. A., and T. J. Weigel. 2007. Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach. The California Geographer 47:1-17.
34. Landres, P. B., P. Morgan, and F. J. Swanson. 1999. Overview of the use of natural variability concepts in managing ecological systems. Ecological Applications 9 (4): 1179-88.
35. Lowry, J. H., Jr., R. D. Ramsey, K. Boykin, D. Bradford, P. Comer, S. Falzarano, W. Kepner, et al. 2005. South-west Regional Gap Analysis Project: Final report on land cover mapping methods. Logan: RS/GIS Laboratory, Utah State University.
36. Mensing, S. A., R. G. Elston, G. L. Raines, R. J. Tausch, and C. L. Nowak. 2000. A GIS model to predict the location of fossil packrat (Neotoma) middens in central Nevada. Western North American Naturalist 60 (2): 111-20.
37. Miller, R. F., and J. A. Rose. 1999. Fire history and western juniper encroachment in sagebrush steppe. Journal of Range Management 52:550-59.
38. Miller, R. F., and R. J. Tausch. 2001. The role of fire in juniper and pinyon woodlands: A descriptive analysis. In Proceedings of the Invasive Species Workshop: The role of fire in the control and spread of invasive species, ed. K. E. M. Galley and T. P. Wilson, 15-30. Tallahassee, FL: Tall Timbers Research Station.
39. Morgan, P., C. C. Hardy, T. W. Swetnam, M. G. Rollins, and D. G. Long. 2001. Mapping fire regimes across time and space: Understanding coarse and fire-scale fine patterns. International Journal of Wildland Fire 10:329-42.
40. O'Driscoll, P. 2007. Invasive weed a fuel for West's wildfires. USA Today 29 August 2007. http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/environment/2007-08-29-cheatgrassN.h tm (last accessed 22 June 2009).
41. Omernik, J. M. 1987. Ecoregions of the conterminous United States (map supplement; scale 1:7,000,000). Annals of the Association of American Geographers 77 (1): 118-25.
42. Orville, R. E., and G. R. Huffines. 2001. Cloud-to-ground lightning in the United States: NLDN results in the first decade, 1989-98. Monthly Weather Review 129:1179-93.
43. PRISM Group. 2006a. United States average monthly or annual maximum temperature, 1971-2000. Oregon State University. http://www.prismclimate.org (last accessed 26 August 2007).
44. PRISM Group. 2006b. United States average monthly or annual precipitation,1971-2000. OregonStateUniversity. http://www.prismclimate.org (last accessed 30 November 2009).
45. Raines, G. L., G. F. Bonham-Carter, and L. Kemp. Predictive probabilistic modeling using ArcView GIS 2000. http://www.esri.com/news/arcuser/0400/files/wofe.pdf (last accessed 26 August 2007).
46. Reap, R. M. 1986. Evaluation of cloud-to-ground lightning data from the western United States for the 1983-84 summer seasons. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 25:785-99.
47. Rollins, M. G., and C. K. Frame, eds. 2006. The LANDFIRE Prototype Project: Nationally consistent and locally relevant geospatial data for wildland fire management. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.
48. Rollins, M. G., P. Morgan, and T. W. Swetnam. 2002. Landscape-scale controls over 20th century fire occurrence in two large Rocky Mountain (USA) wilderness areas. Landscape Ecology 17:539-57.
49. Rollins, M. G., T. W. Swetnam, and P. Morgan. 2001. Evaluating a century of fire patterns in two Rocky Mountain wilderness areas using digital fire atlases. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31:2107-23.
50. Romero-Calcerrada, R., and J. D. A. Millington. 2007. Spatial analysis of patterns and causes of fire ignition probabilities using logistic regression and weights-of-evidence based GIS modeling. Geophysical Research Abstracts 9:01337.
51. Romme, W. H., L. Floyd-Hanna, and D. D. Hanna. 2003. Ancient pinon-juniper forests of Mesa Verde and the West: A cautionary note for forest restoration programs. In Proceedings RMRS-P-29, technical ed. P. N. Omi and L. A. Joyce, 335-50. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.
52. Sawatzky, D. L., G. L. Raines, G. F. Bonham-Carter, and C. G. Looney. 2004. ARCSDM3.1: ArcMap extension for spatial data modelling using weights of evidence, logistic regression, fuzzy logic and nerual network analysis. http://www.ige.unicamp.br/sdm.ArcSDM31/ (last accessed 26 August 2007).
53. Sherriff, R. L., and T. T. Veblen. 2007. A spatially-explicit reconstruction of historical fire occurrence in the ponderosa pine zone of the Colorado Front Range. Ecosystems 10:311-23.
54. Sibold, J. S., and T. T. Veblen. 2006. Relationships of subalpine forest fires in the Colorado Front Range with interannual and multidecadal-scale climatic variation. Journal of Biogeography 33:833-42.
55. Sibold, J. S., T. T. Veblen, and M. E. Gonzalez. 2006. Spatial and temporal variation in historic fire regimes in subalpine forests across the Colorado Front Range in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. Journal of Biogeography 33 (4): 631-47.
56. Smith, E., and S. Sistare. 2007. Summit impact report: An evaluation of the 2007 Nevada Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Summit 37. Reno: University of Nevada Cooperative Extension.
57. Spiegelhalter, D. J. 1986. Probabilistic prediction in patient management and clinical trials. Statistics in Medicine 5 (5): 421-33.
58. Stewart, J. H., and J. E. Carlson. 1978. Geologic map of Nevada. Reno, NV: U.S. Geological Survey.
59. Swetnam, T. W., and C. H. Baisan. 2003. Tree-ring reconstructions of fire and climate history in the Sierra Nevada and Southwestern United States. In Fire and climatic change in temperate ecosystems of the western Americas, ed. T. T. Veblen, W. L. Baker, G. Montenegro, and T. W. Swetnam, 158-95. New York: Springer.
60. Taylor, A. H., and R. M. Beaty. 2005. Climatic influences on fire regimes in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains, Lake Tahoe Basin, Nevada, USA. Journal of Biogeography 32 (3): 425-38.
61. Trimble, S. A. 1989. The sagebrush ocean. Reno: University of Nevada Press.
62. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2006. TIGER line files. http://www.census.gov/geo/www/tiger/index.html (last accessed 26 August 2007).
63. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2007. State and county quickfacts: Lincoln County, NV. http://quickfacts.census.gov (last accessed 26 August 2007).
64. U.S. Bureau of Land Management. 2006. Nevada fire history 1910-2005. http://www.nv.blm.gov/gis/geospatialdata.htm (last accessed 26 August 2007).
65. U.S. Forest Service. 1999. National fire occurrence data 1986-1996 http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/fuelman/ (last accessed 26 August 2007).
66. U.S. Geological Survey. 2007. National elevation database. http://ned.usgs.gov (last accessed 26 August 2007).
67. U.S. National Climatic Data Center. 2005. Climate of 2005-August U.S. drought indicators. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html (last accessed 26 August 2007).
68. U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service. 2006a. Soil data viewer 5.1. http://soildataviewer.nrcs.usda.gov (last accessed 26 August 2007).
69. U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service. 2006b. State soil geographic (STATSGO) database. http://soildatamart.nrcs.usda.gov (last accessed 26 August 2007)
70. U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service. 2007. Historical accumulated precipitation (daily) for Site 334 in the state of Nevada. http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snotel/ (last accessed 26 August 2007).
71. U.S. Western Regional Climate Center. 2007. Monthly climate summary for Caliente, Nevada 1928-2007. http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.p1?nvcali (last accessed 26 August 2007).
72. Vaisala Global Atmospherics. 2007. National Lightning Detection System. Tucson, AZ: Vaisala Inc.
73. Veblen, T. T., T. Kitzberger, and J. Donnegan.2000.Climatic and human influences on fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front Range. Ecological Applications 10 (4): 1178-95.
74. Weigel, T. J. 2007. Assessing post-fire reseeding potential using Bureau of Land Management criteria in northeastern Nevada: A spatial modeling approach. Master's thesis, University of Nevada, Reno.
75. Westerling, A. L., A. Gershunov, T. J. Brown, D. R. Cayan, and M. D. Dettinger. 2003. Climate and wildfire in the western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84 (5): 595-604.
76. Westerling, A. L., H. G. Hidalgo, D. R. Cayan, and T. W. Swetnam. 2006. Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 313 (18 August): 940-43.