Expert elicitation and its interface with technology: A review with a view to designing Elicitator

18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation: Interfacing Modelling and Simulation with Mathematical and Computational Sciences, Proceedings

Volumn , Issue , 2009, Pages 4269-4275

  Low Choy, S ^a   James, A ^a   Mengersen, K ^a  

^a QUEENSLAND UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Design; Expert elicitation; Human computer interface; Informative Bayesian analysis; Prior information; Software tool

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; EXPERT ELICITATION; HUMAN COMPUTER INTERFACES; PRIOR INFORMATION; SOFTWARE TOOL;

COMMUNICATION; DESIGN; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; TECHNOLOGY; USER INTERFACES;

BAYESIAN NETWORKS;

EID: 69949173740     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (27)

1. Al-Awadhi, S. A. and Garthwaite, P. H. (2006). Quantifying expert opinion for modelling fauna habitat distributions. Computational Statistics, 21:121-140. (Pubitemid 44598961)
2. Bedrick, E. J., Christensen, R., and Johnson, W. (1996). A new perspective on priors for generalized linear models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91(436):1450-1460.
3. Chaloner, K., Church, T., Louis, T. A., and Matts, J. P. (1993). Graphical elicitation of a prior distribution for a clinical trial. The Statistician, 42(4):341-353.
4. Chaloner, K. M. and Duncan, G. T. (1983). Assessment of a Beta prior distribution: PM elicitation. The Statistician, 32:174-180.
5. Denham, R. and Mengersen, K. (2007). Geographically assisted elicitation of expert opinion for regression models. Bayesian Analysis, 2(1):99-136.
6. Du Mouchel, W. (1988). A Bayesian model and a graphical elicitation procedure for multiple comparisons. In Bernardo, J. M., de Groot, M. H., Lindley, D. V., and Smith, A. F. M., editors, Bayesian Statistics 3, pages 127-145. Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK.
7. Garthwaite, P. H. and O'Hagan, A. (2000). Quantifying expert opinion in the UK water industry: an experimental study. The Statistician, 49:455-477.
8. Goldman, L., E.F. Cook, D.A. Brand, T.H. Lee, G.W. Rouan, M.C. Weisberg, D. Acampora, C. Stasiulewicz, Walshon, J., Terranova, G., Gottlieb, L., Kobernick, M., Goldstein-Wayne, B., Cohen, D., Daley, K., Brandt, A. A., Jones, D., Mellors, J. and Jakubowski, R. (1988) A computer protocol to predict myocardial infarction in emergency department patients with chest pain. New Eng. J. Med., 318, 797-803. (Pubitemid 18083626)
9. Kadane, J. B., Dickey, J. M., Winkler, R. L., Smith, W. S., and Peters, S. C. (1980). Interactive elicitation of opinion for a normal linear model. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75:845-854.
10. Kadane, J. B. and Wolfson, L. J. (1998). Experiences in elicitation. The Statistician, 47:3-19. (Pubitemid 128469059)
11. Kuhnert, P. M., T. G. Martin, K. Mengersen and H. P. Possingham. (2005). Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion. Environmetrics 16:717-747. (Pubitemid 41539857)
12. Kynn, M. (2006). Designing elicitor: Software to graphically elicit expert priors for logistic regression models in ecology. http://www.winbugs- development.org.uk/elicitor/files/designing.elicitor.pdf.
13. Kynn, M. (2008). The "heuristics and biases" bias in expert elicitation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 171(1):239-264.
14. Landrum, M. B. and Normand, S.-L. T. (1999). Applying Bayesian ideas to the development of medical guidelines. Statistics in Medicine, 18:117-137. (Pubitemid 29027694)
15. Leal, J., Wordsworth, S., Legood, R., and Blair, E. (2007). Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: An applied example. Value in Health, 10(3):195-203. (Pubitemid 46802277)
16. Lehmann, A., Overton, J. M., and Leathwick, J. R. (2002). GRASP: generalized regression analysis and spatial prediction. Ecological Modelling, 157:189-207. (Pubitemid 35255415)
17. Low Choy, S., Murray, J., James, A. and Mengersen, K. (in press). Indirect elicitation from ecological experts: from methods and software to habitat modelling and rock-wallabies. In Handbook for Applied Bayesian Analysis, eds A. O'Hagan and M. West, Oxford University Press: OUP.
18. Low Choy, S., O'Leary, R., and Mengersen, K. (2009). Elicitation by design for ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models. Ecology, 90:265-277.
19. Martin, T. G., Kuhnert, P. M., Mengersen, K., and Possingham, H. P. (2005). The power of expert opinion in ecological models: A Bayesian approach examining the impact of livestock grazing on birds. Ecological Applications, 15(1):266-280. (Pubitemid 40263584)
20. Murray, J.V., A.W. Goldizen, R.A. O'Leary, C.A. McAlpine, H.P. Possingham and S. Low-Choy (in press), How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabies (Petrogale penicillata), J. Appl. Ecol.
21. O'Hagan, A. (1998). Eliciting expert beliefs in substantial practical applications. The Statistician, 47:21-35.
22. O'Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, R., Garthwaite, P., Jenkinson, D., Oakley, J., and Rakow, T. (2006). Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
23. O'Hagan, A. (1997). The ABLE story: Bayesian asset management in the water industry. In The Practice of Bayesian Analysis, eds French, S. and Smith, J. Q., pp173-198. London: Arnold.
24. O'Leary, R. A., Low Choy, S. J., Murray, J. V., Kynn, M., Denham, R., Martin, T. G., and Mengersen, K. (2008). Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brushtailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata). Environmetrics, 19:1-20.
25. Spetzler, C. S. and Stäel von Holstein, C.-A. S. (1975). Probability encoding in decision analysis. Management Science, 22(3):340-358.
26. Uusitalo, L. (2007). Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling, Ecological Modelling, 203: 312-318.
27. Willems, A., Janssen, M., Verstegen, C., and Bedford, T. (2005). Expert quantification of uncertainties in a risk analysis for an infrastructure project. J. Risk Research, 8:3-17. (Pubitemid 43203440)