Projected future runoff of the Breede river under climate change

Water SA

Volumn 35, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 433-440

  Steynor, A C ^a   Hewitson, B C ^b   Tadross, M A ^b  

^a Environmental Change Institute   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Breede river; Climate change; Ecological sustainability; Runoff

Indexed keywords

CATCHMENTS; CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; ECOLOGY; HYDROLOGY; RIVERS; RUNOFF; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT;

ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY; HIGH FREQUENCY HF; HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; LONG-TERM POLICIES; MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFFS; RUNOFF GAUGING STATIONS; SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; GAUGE; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; RUNOFF; SUSTAINABILITY;

AFRICA; BREEDE RIVER; SOUTH AFRICA; SOUTHERN AFRICA; SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA; WESTERN CAPE;

EID: 68649127092     PISSN: 03784738     EISSN: 18167950     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4314/wsa.v35i4.76803     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. 2 using a large ensemble of GCM simulations. Clim. Dyn. 26 (5) 489-511.
2. CAPE METROPOLITAN COUNCIL (2001) Water Services Development Plan (Internal report). Cape Metropolitan Council, City of Cape Town, South Africa.
3. CAVAZOS T (1999) Large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to extreme precipitation events and derivation of daily rainfall in north-eastern Mexico and south-eastern Texas. J. Clim. 12 1506-1523.
4. CAVAZOS T (2000) Using self-organizing maps to investigate extreme climate events: and application to wintertime precipitation in the Balkans. J. Clim. 13 1718-1732.
5. CAVAZOS T, COMRIE A and LIVERMAN D (2002) Intraseasonal variability associated with wet monsoons in southeast Arizona. J. Clim. 15 2477-2490.
6. CRANE R and HEWITSON B (2003) Clustering and upscaling of station precipitation records to regional patterns using self-organizing maps (SOMs). Clim. Res. 25 95-107.
7. DAYHOFF J (1990) Neural Network Architectures: An introduction. Van Nostrand Reinhold. New York. 259 pp.
8. DEPARTMENT OF WATER AFFAIRS AND FORESTRY (2002a) Breede River Basin Study. Hydrology Second Draft. Prepared by Ninham Shand. DWAF Report No. P H 000/8718. DWAF, Pretoria, South Africa.
9. DEPARTMENT OF WATER AFFAIRS AND FORESTRY (2002b) Breede River Basin Study. Agricultural Water Demand. Prepared by L Bruwer of Louis Bruwer Inc. DWAF Report No. PH 00/00/1802. DWAF, Pretoria, South Africa.
10. DEPARTMENT OF WATER AFFAIRS AND FORESTRY (2002c) Proposed 1st edn. National Water Resource Strategy. DWAF, Pretoria, South Africa.
11. DEPARTMENT OF WATER AFFAIRS AND FORESTRY (2003) Summary Report. Prepared by H Beuster and M J Shand of Ninham Shand (Pty) Ltd as Part of the Breede River Basin Study. DWAF Report No. P H 00/00/3302. DWAF, Pretoria, South Africa.
12. DESSAI S, HULME M, LEMPERT R and PIELKE R (Jr.) (2009) Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation? In: Adger W, Lorenzoni I and O'Brien K (eds.) Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance. Cambridge University Press. 64-78.
13. GUTI ÉRREZ J, CANO R, COFINO A and SORDO C (2005) Analysis and dowscaling multi-model seasonal forecasts in Peru using self-organizing maps. Te ll u s 57A 435-447.
14. HEWITSON B and CRANE R (2002) Self-organizing maps: Applications to synoptic climatology. Clim. Res. 22 13-26.
15. HEWITSON B and CRANE R (2005) Gridded area average daily precipitation via conditional interpolation. J. Clim. 18 41-57.
16. HEWITSON B and CRANE R (2006) Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa. int. J. Clim. 26 (10) 1315-1337.
17. KALNAY E, KANAMITSU M, KISTLER R, COLLINS W, DEAVEN D, GANDIN L, IREDELL M, SAHA S, WHITE G, WOOLLEN J, ZHU Y, LEETMAA A, REYNOLDS B, CHELLIAH M, EBISU-ZAKI W, HIGGINS W, JANOWIAK J, MO K, ROPELEWSKI C, WANG J, JENNE R and JOSEPH D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 77 437-471.
18. KOHONEN T, HYNNINEN J, KANGAS J and LAAKSONEN J (1996) SOM PAK: The Self-Organizing Map Program Package. Helsinki University of Technology, Helsinki, Finland.
19. MACKELLAR N, TADROSS M and HEWITSON B (2009) Synoptic-based evaluation of climatic response to vegetation change over southern Africa. int. J. Clim. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1925.
20. MAIN J (1997) Seasonality of Circulation in Southern Africa Using the Kohonen Self-organising Maps. M.Sc. Thesis. University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
21. MALGREM B and WINTER A (1999) Climate zonation in Puerto Rico based on principle component analysis and an artifcial neural network. J. Clim. 12 977-985.
22. NEW M (2002) Climate Change and Water Resources in the southwestern Cape, South Africa. S. Afr. J. Sci. 98 369-376.
23. NAKIĆENOVIĆ N, DAVIDSON O, DAVIS G, GRÜBLER A, KRAM T, LA ROVERE E, METZ B, MORITA T, PEPPER W, PITCHER H, SANKOVSKI A, SHUKLA P, SWART R, WATSON R and DADI Z (2000) iPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. United Kingdom and New York. USA, 599 pp.
24. OFWAT (1998) Setting Price Limits for Water and Sewerage Services: The Framework and Business Planning Process for the 1999 Periodic Review. Offce of Water Services. Birmingham, United Kingdom.
25. 2 emissions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104 (24) 10288-10293.
26. STEYNOR A (2002) The Impact of Global Climate Change on Apple Farming: A Study of the Overberg. B.Sc. (Hons) Thesis. University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
27. STEYNOR A (2005) The Impact of Global Climate Change on the Runoff and Ecological Sustainability of the Breede River. M.Sc. Thesis. University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
28. TADROSS M, GUTOWSKI W, HEWITSON B, JACK C and NEW M (2006) MM5 simulations of interannual change and the diurnal cycle of Southern African regional climate. Theor. Appl. Clim. 86 63-80.
29. TENNANT W (2003) An assessment of intra-seasonal variability from 13-year GCM simulations. Mon. Weather. Rev. 131 1975-1991. TENNANT W and HEWITSON B (2002) Intraseasonal rainfall characteristics and their importance to the seasonal prediction problem. int. J. Clim. 22 1033-1048
30. TENNANT W and REASON C (2005) Associations between the global energy cycle and regional rainfall in South Africa and southwest Australia. J. Clim. 18 3032-3047.
31. THOMAS C, TWYMAN C, OSBAHR H and HEWITSON B (2007) Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa. Clim. Change 83 301-322.