Believing is seeing: Laypeople's views of future socio-economic and climate change in England and in Italy

Public Understanding of Science

Volumn 18, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 383-400

  Lorenzoni, Irene ^a   Hulme, Mike ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change; cross cultural comparison; participation; perceptions; public; scenarios

Indexed keywords

EID: 67650783502     PISSN: 09636625     EISSN: 13616609     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0963662508089540     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Alcamo, J. (2001) Scenarios as Tools for International Environmental Assessments. Experts' Corner Report: Prospects and Scenarios. Copenhagen and Luxembourg: EEA and Official Publications of the European Communities.
2. BBC World Service (2007) " All Countries Need to Take Major Steps on Climate Change: Global Poll," GlobeScan with P IPA.
3. Berkhout, F. and Hertin, J. (2000) " Viewpoint: Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Impact Assessment, " Global Environmental Change 10: 165-8.
4. Berkhout, F., Hertin, J. and Jordan, A. (2002) " Socio-economic Futures in Climate Change Impact Assessment: Using Scenarios as 'Learning Machines, '" Global Environmental Change 12: 83-95. (Pubitemid 34949487)
5. Bickerstaff, K., Simmons, P. and Pidgeon, N. (2004) " Public Perceptions of Risk, Science and Governance: Main Findings of a Qualitative Study of Five Risk Cases, " CER (Centre for Environmental Risk) Working paper. Norwich: University of East Anglia.
6. Blake, J. (1999) " Overcoming the 'Value-Action Gap' in Environmental Policy: Tensions between National Policy and Local Experience, " Local Environment 4 (3). 257-78.
7. Burris, C.T., Harmon-Jones, E. and Tarpley, W.R. (1997) " 'By Faith Alone': Religious Agitation and Cognitive Dissonance, " Basic and Applied Social Psychology 19: 17-31. (Pubitemid 127361861)
8. Carter, T.R., Hulme, M., Crossley, J.F., Malystev, S., Schlesinger, M.E. and Tuomenvirta, H. (2000) " Climate Change in the 21st Century-Interim Characterisations Based on the New IPCC Emissions Scenarios," The Finnish Environment 433. Helsinki: Finnish Environment Institute.
9. Cianciullo, A. (2003) " Italia, aumentano i gas serra, Kyoto diventa un miraggio, " La Repubblica 27 July. URL: http://www.repubblica.it/2003/ g/sezioni/scienza-e-tecnologia/effettoserra/effettoserra/effettoserra.html (accessed 16 February 2007).
10. Dahinden, U., Querol, C., Jsignger, J. and Nilsson, M. (2003) " Citizen Interaction with Computer Models, " in B. Kasemir, J. JCurrency signger, C.C. Jaeger and M.T. Gardner (eds) Public Participation in Sustainability Science: A Handbook, Ch. 5, pp. 105-25. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
11. Dake, K. (1992) " Myths of Nature: Culture and the Social Construction of Risk, " Journal of Social Issues 48 (4). 21-37.
12. DEFRA (Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs) (2002) Public Attitudes to Quality of Life and the Environment: The 2001 Survey. London: DEFRA.
13. DEFRA (2007) " Greenhouse Gas Statistic Shows UK on Track to Double Kyoto Target, " DEFRA news release, 31 January. URL: http://www.defra.gov. uk/news/2007/070131b.htm (accessed 22 June 2007).
14. De Marchi, B., Funtowicz, S., Gough, C., Guimares Pereira, Â. and Rota, E. (1998) " The ULYSSES Voyage: The ULYSSES Project at the JRC, " EUR 17760EN. Ispra: Joint Research Centre. URL: http://alba.jrc.it/ ulysses/ (accessed 15 August 2007 ).
15. Douglas, M., Gasper, D., Ney, S. and Thompson, M. (1998) " Human Needs and Wants, " in S. Rayner and E.L. Malone (eds) Human Choice and Climate Change, vol. 1: The Societal Framework, Ch. 3, pp. 195-264. Columbus: Battelle Memorial Institute.
16. Downing, P. and Ballantyne, J. (2007) Tipping Point or Turning Point? Social Marketing and Climate Change. London: Ipsos MORI.
17. Dunlap, R.E. (1998) " Lay Perceptions of Global Risk, " International Sociology 13 (4). 473-98.
18. Eden, S.E. (1996) " Public Participation in Environmental Policy: Considering Scientific, Counter-scientific and Non-scientific Contributions, " Public Understanding of Science 5: 183-203.
19. EEA (Europe Environment Agency) (2005) Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends and Projections in Europe 2005. Copenhagen and Luxembourg: EEA and Official Publications of the European Communities.
20. EST (Energy Saving Trust) (2007) Green Barometer: Measuring Environmental Attitude. London: EST.
21. Festinger, L. (1957) A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
22. Futerra (2005) The Rules of the Game: Evidence Base for the Climate Change Communication Strategy. London: Futerra.
23. Gallopin, G., Hammond, A., Raskin, P. and Swart, R. (1997) Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice. Stockholm: Stockholm Environment Institute.
24. Gallup Organization (2007) Attitudes on Issues Related to EU Energy Policy: Analytical Report. Flash EB series 206, European Commission.
25. GlobeScan (2006) " Global Views on Climate Change: Questionnaire and Methodology, " GlobeScan, PIPA, World Public Opinion.Org. URL: http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/apr06/ClimateChange-Apr06-quaire.pdf (accessed 10 July 2007).
26. GOEE and DETR (2000) RPG6: Regional Planning Guidance for East Anglia to 2016: Based on the Regional Strategy for East Anglia, 1995-2016. London: Stationery Office.
27. Green, K., Shackley, S., Dewick, P. and Miozzo, M. (2002) " Long-wave Theories of Technological Change and the Global Environment, " Global Environmental Change 12 (2). 79-81. (Pubitemid 34949486)
28. Hammond, A. (1998) Which World? Scenarios for the 21st Century: Global Destinies, Regional Choices. London: Earthscan.
29. Hargreaves, I., Lewis, J. and Speers, T. (2003) Towards a Better Map: Science, the Public and the Media. Swindon: ESRC (Economic and Social Research Council).
30. Holloway, L. (1999) " Understanding Climate Change and Farming: Scientific and Farmers' Constructions of 'Global Warming' in Relation to Agriculture, " Environment and Planning A 31: 2017-32.
31. Hulme, M. and Jenkins, G.J. (1998) Climate Change Scenarios for the UK: Scientific Report. UKCIP (UK Climate Impacts Programme) Technical Report 1. Norwich: University of East Anglia.
32. Hulme, M., Jenkins, G.J., Lu, X., Turnpenny, J.R., Mitchell, T.D., Jones, R.G., Lowe, J., Murphy, J.M., Hassall, D., Boorman, P., McDonald, R. and Hill, S. (2002 a) Climate Change Scenarios for the UK: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report. Norwich: University of East Anglia.
33. Hulme, M., Turnpenny, J. and Jenkins, G.J. (2002 b) Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Briefing Report. Norwich: University of East Anglia.
34. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007) " Summary for Policymakers, " in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
35. IPPR (Institute for Public Policy Research) (2005) " Two Thirds of EU Countries Set to Miss Kyoto Commitments." URL: http://www.ippr.org.uk/ pressreleases/?id=1863 (accessed 5 January 2007).
36. Irwin, A. and Wynne, B. (eds) (1996) Misunderstanding Science? The Public Reconstruction of Science and Technology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
37. Kasemir, B., Dahinden, U., Gerger Swartling, & Acircle;., Schibli, D., Schüle, R., Tbara, D. and Jaeger, C.C. (2003) " Collage Processes and Citizens' Visions for the Future, " in B. Kasemir, J. JCurrency signger, C.C. Jaeger and M.T. Gardner (eds) Public Participation in Sustainability Science: A Handbook, Ch. 4, pp. 81-104. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
38. Kok, K., Patel, M., Rothman, D.S. and Quaranta, G. (2006) " Multi-scale Narratives from an IA Perspective: Part II. Participatory Local Scenario Development, " Futures 38: 285-311. (Pubitemid 43141621)
39. Kollmuss, A. and Agyeman, J. (2002) " Mind the Gap: Why Do People Act Environmentally and What Are the Barriers to Pro-environmental Behavior, " Environmental Education Research 8: 239-60.
40. LC and LNE (2007) " Effetto ambiente: come cambia il nostro stile di vita, " Presented at the "Qualenergia?" Forum, Rome, 14 June. URL: http://www.lanuovaecologia.it/documenti/ Ricerca%20La%20Nuova%20Ecologia%20%20Lorien%20Consulting%20(commenti).ppt (accessed 5 July 2007).
41. Leiserowitz, A.A. (2005) " American Risk Perceptions: Is Climate Change Dangerous?, " Risk Analysis 25 (6). 1433-42.
42. Lorenzoni, I. and Pidgeon, N. (2006) " Public Views on Climate Change: European and USA Perspectives, " Climatic Change 77 (1-2). 73-95. (Pubitemid 44273012)
43. Lorenzoni, I., Jordan, A., Hulme, M., Turner, R.K. and O'Riordan, T. (2000 a) " A Co-Evolutionary Approach to Climate Change Impact Assessment (I): Integrating Socio-economic and Climate Change Scenarios, " Global Environmental Change 10 (1). 57-68. (Pubitemid 30622675)
44. Lorenzoni, I., Jordan, A., O'Riordan, T., Turner, R.K. and Hulme, M. (2000 b) " A Co-Evolutionary Approach to Climate Change Impact Assessment (II): A Scenario-Based Case Study in East Anglia (UK), " Global Environmental Change 10 (1). 145-55.
45. Lorenzoni, I., Leiserowitz, A., Doria, M.F., Poortinga, W. and Pidgeon, N. (2006) " Cross-national Comparisons of Image Associations with 'Global Warming' and 'Climate Change' among Laypeople in the United States of America and Great Britain, " Journal of Risk Research 9 (3). 265-81.
46. Lorenzoni, I., Nicholson-Cole, S. and Whitmarsh, L. (2007) " Barriers Perceived to Engaging with Climate Change among the UK Public and their Policy Implications, " Global Environmental Change 17: 445-59.
47. Lowe, T., Brown, K., Dessai, S., de Franca Doria, M., Haynes, K. and Vincent, K. (2006) " Does Tomorrow Ever Come? Disaster Narrative and Public Perceptions of Climate Change, " Public Understanding of Science 15: 435-57.
48. Masini, E.B. (1999) " Rethinking Future Studies, " in Z. Sardar (ed.) Rescuing all our Futures: The Future of Futures Studies, Ch. 3, pp. 38-48. Westport, CT: Praeger.
49. Moser, S.C. and Dilling, L. (2004) " Making Climate Hot: Communicating the Urgency and Challenge of Global Climate Change, " Environment 46 (10). 32-46. (Pubitemid 39571757)
50. Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R. (eds) (2000) Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
51. Olson, R.L. (1995) " Sustainability as a Social Vision, " Journal of Social Issues 51: 15-35. (Pubitemid 26478366)
52. O'Neill, B.C. and Oppenheimer, M. (2002) " Dangerous Climate Impacts and the Kyoto Protocol, " Science 296: 1971-2.
53. OST (Office of Science and Technology) (1998) Environmental Futures. Report for the UK's National Foresight Programme. London: Department of Trade and Industry.
54. Palutikof, J.P., Agnew, M.D. and Hoar, M.R. (2004) " Public Perceptions of Unusually Warm Weather in the UK: Impacts, Responses and Adaptations, " Climate Research 26: 43-59. (Pubitemid 39130912)
55. Parry, M.L. (ed.) (2000) Assessment of the Potential Effects of Climate Change in Europe: The Europe ACACIA Project. Norwich: University of East Anglia.
56. Parry, M. and Carter, T. (1998) Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment. London: Earthscan.
57. Poortinga, W. and Pidgeon, N.F. (2003) Public Perceptions of Risk, Science and Governance: Main Findings of a British Survey on Five Risk Cases. CER (Centre for Environmental Risk) Technical Report. Norwich: University of East Anglia.
58. Poortinga, W., Pidgeon, N.F. and Lorenzoni, I. (2006) " Public Perceptions of Nuclear Power, Climate Change and Energy Options in Britain: Summary Findings of a Survey Conducted during October and November 2005," WP 06-02. Norwich: University of East Anglia.
59. Schellnhuber, H.J., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., Wigley, T. and Yohe, G. (eds) (2006) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
60. Shackley, S. and Deanwood, R. (2003) " Constructing Social Futures for Climate-change Impacts and Response Studies: Building Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios with the Participation of Stakeholders, " Climate Research 24 (1). 71-90. (Pubitemid 36821909)
61. Stoll-Kleemann, S., O'Riordan, T. and Jaeger, C.C. (2001) " The Psychology of Denial Concerning Climate Mitigation Measures: Evidence from Swiss Focus Groups, " Global Environmental Change 11: 107-17.
62. TNS Opinion and Social (2005) " Attitudes of Europeans towards Environment, " Special Eurobarometer 217, European Commission.
63. Tonn, B., Hemrick, A. and Conrad, F. (2006) " Cognitive Representations of the Future: Survey Results, " Futures 38: 810-29.
64. Trumbo, C.W. and Shanahan, J. (2000) " Social Research on Climate Change: Where We Have Been, Where Are We and Where We Might Go, " Public Understanding of Science 9: 199-204.
65. UCEA (2006) " Progretti: Climagri " URL: http://www.climagri. it/ (accessed 17 August 2007 ).
66. UKCIP (UK Climate Impacts Programme) (2001) Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Impact Assessment: A Guide to their Use in the UK Climate Impacts Programme. Oxford: UKCIP.
67. Viner, D., Jordan, A., Lorenzoni, I. and Favis-Mortlock, D. (2000) The Potential Impact of Climate Change in the Norfolk Arable Land Management Initiative (NALMI) Area over the next 30-50 Years. Norwich: University of East Anglia.