Estimating future prices for stationary fuel cells with empirically derived experience curves

International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

Volumn 34, Issue 14, 2009, Pages 5617-5628

  Staffell, I ^a   Green, R J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Domestic micro CHP; ENEFARM; Experience curve cost estimation; Learning by doing; PEM fuel cell

Indexed keywords

DOMESTIC MICRO-CHP; ENEFARM; EXPERIENCE CURVE COST ESTIMATION; LEARNING BY DOING; PEM FUEL CELL;

CELL MEMBRANES; COSTS; ELECTROLYTIC REDUCTION; ESTIMATION; PROTON EXCHANGE MEMBRANE FUEL CELLS (PEMFC);

COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS;

EID: 67650744261     PISSN: 03603199     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2009.05.075     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. James D.B., Lomax F.D., and Thomas C.E. Manufacturing cost of stationary polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cell systems (1999), Directed Technologies Inc.
2. Kamarudin S.K., et al. Technical design and economic evaluation of a PEM fuel cell system. Journal of Power Sources 157 (2006) 641-649
3. Singhal SC. Innovative solid oxide fuel cell systems for small scale power generation. In: Presented at the Tenth Grove Fuel Cell Symposium. 2007. London, UK.
4. Wene C.-O. Experience curves for energy technology policy (2000), OECD/IEA, Paris
5. Neij L. Cost development of future technologies for power generation - a study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments. Energy Policy 36 6 (2008) 2200-2211
6. Schwoon M. Learning by doing, learning spillovers and the diffusion of fuel cell vehicles. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 16 9 (2008) 1463-1476
7. Mock P., and Schmid S.A. Fuel cells for automotive power trains - a techno-economic assessment. Journal of Power Sources 190 1 (2009) 133-140
8. Jun E., Jeong Y.H., and Chang S.H. Simulation of the market penetration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Korea. International Journal of Energy Research 32 4 (2008) 318-327
9. Tsuchiya H., and Kobayashi O. Mass production cost of PEM fuel cell by learning curve. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 29 (2004) 985-990
10. Schlecht L. Competition and alliances in fuel cell power train development. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 7 (2003) 717-723
11. Lipman TE, Sperling D. Experience curves for policy-making. The case of energy technologies. Presented at the IEA International Workshop. 1999. Stuttgart, Germany. Available at: [accessed May 2009].
12. Thomas C.E., James B.D., and Lomax F.D. Market penetration scenarios for fuel cell vehicles. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 23 10 (1998) 949-966
13. Rogner H.H. Hydrogen technologies and the technology learning curve. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 23 9 (1998) 833-840
14. Neuhoff K. Learning by doing with constrained growth rates. The Energy Journal 29 2 (2008) 165-182 [special issue]
15. Dutton J.M., and Thomas A. Treating progress functions as a managerial opportunity. Academy of Management Review 9 (1984) 235
16. McDonald A., and Schrattenholzer L. Learning rates for energy technologies. Energy Policy 29 4 (2001) 255-261
17. Shindo H. Japan's approach to commercialization of fuel cell/hydrogen technology. Presented at Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure Technologies Program Annual Review. 2005. Arlington, USA. Available at: .
18. New Energy Foundation. {A figure is presented}{A figure is presented} (Large scale residential fuel cell demonstration project (the number of operations from 2005 to 2009)). Available at: (2008). [accessed May 2009] [in Japanese]
19. Kogaki T. Japan's approach to the commercialization of fuel cell and hydrogen technology. Presented at Fuel Cell Seminar & Exposition. 2007. San Antonio, USA. Available at: [accessed Feb 2009].
20. Yamada Y. Performance of residential FC CHP LIFUEL in actual and daily use for years. Presented at Tenth Grove Fuel Cell Symposium. 2007. London, UK.
21. Yamamoto A. Activities toward commercialization of fuel cell/hydrogen technology in Japan. Presented at Fuel Cell Seminar & Exposition. 2008. Phoenix, Arizona.
22. New Energy Foundation. {A figure is presented} (Report data from the large scale residential fuel cell demonstration project in 2008). Available at: (2009). [accessed May 2009] [in Japanese]. p. 9, 38
23. Hosaka Y. ENE farm fuel cell system for residential use. Presented at 5th International Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Expo. 2009. Tokyo, Japan.
24. Tokyo Gas Co. {A figure is presented}{A figure is presented}LIVING ONLINE (Tokyo Gas: my home power generation: ENEFARM: line-up of gas apparatus and equipment). Available at:. [accessed Aug 2008] [in Japanese]
25. Homma T. The latest fuel cell news in Japan. Number 153. Available at:. [accessed Apr 2009]
26. Fuel Cell Today. 6 Japan firms to launch home fuel cell sales. Available at: (2009). [accessed Feb 2009]
27. Butler J., and Hugh M. Event report: 5th International Fuel Cell Expo. Fuel Cell Today (2009). Available at: [accessed May 2009]
28. Watanabe H, Kameyama H, Okamura K, Nishizaki K. Commercialization of residential fuel cell systems at tokyo gas. Presented at the 20th World Energy Congress. 2007. Rome, Italy. Available at: [accessed May 2009].
29. Lyon K. Subsidizing policy for residential fuel cells. Presented at 11th IPHE Implementation and Liaison Committee Meeting. 2009, Oslo, Norway. Available at: [accessed May 2009].
30. Statistics Bureau. Consumer price index. 2009. Available at:. [accessed Apr 2009]
31. Homma T. The latest fuel cell news in Japan. Available at: (December 2007). [accessed Dec 2008]
32. Schoots K., Ferioli F., Kramer G.J., and Van der Zwaan B.C.C. Learning curves for hydrogen production technology: an assessment of observed cost reductions. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 33 11 (2008) 2630-2645
33. McLean G.F., Niet T., Prince-Richard S., and Djilali N. An assessment of alkaline fuel cell technology. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 27 5 (2001) 507-526
34. Veenhoven W.A. Decentralized electricity generation with natural gas in one-family houses: the situation in Japan (2005), Tokyo, Japan: Hastex International
35. Homma T. The latest fuel cell news in Japan. Available at: (May 2001). [accessed Dec 2008]
36. Homma T. The latest fuel cell news in Japan. Available at: (May 2002). [accessed Dec 2008]
37. Nishizaki K. The Japanese experience in micro CHP for residential use. Presented at Gas Industry Micro CHP Workshop. 2008. Paris. Available at: [accessed May 2009].
38. New Energy Foundation. {A figure is presented} (Report data from the Large Scale Residential Fuel Cell Demonstration Project in 2007). Available at: (2008). [accessed May 2009] [in Japanese]
39. Komiya J, Sekine D, Shiraki M, Itsuki H, Hoshi F, Hondo M, et al. Development of fuel processor and catalyst for a 1 kW class residential PEFC co-generation system. Presented at Fuel Cell Seminar & Exposition. 2008. Phoenix, Arizona. Available at: [accessed May 2009].
40. Homma T. The latest fuel cell news in Japan. Available at: (September 2001). [accessed Dec 2008]
41. Adamson K.-A. Fuel cell today small stationary survey. Available at: (2008). [accessed May 2008]
42. Shorrock L.D., and Utley J.I. Domestic energy fact file (2003), London, UK: BRE p. 11
43. 2 refrigerant heat pump hot water system). Tokugikon 236 (2005) 122-133 [in Japanese]
44. R744. Heat pumps-a global market update. Available at: (2008). [accessed Dec 2008]
45. Homma T. The latest fuel cell news in Japan. Available at: (July 2008). [accessed Dec 2008]
46. National Academy of Engineering and Board on Energy and Environmental Systems. The hydrogen economy: opportunities, costs, barriers, and R&D needs (2004), Washington, DC, USA: The National Academies Press p. 33
47. Staffell I., Green R., and Kendall K. Cost targets for domestic fuel cell CHP. Journal of Power Sources 181 2 (2008) 339-349
48. Zhang J., Xie Z., Zhang J., Tang Y., Song C., Navessin T., et al. High temperature PEM fuel cells. Journal of Power Sources 160 2 (2006) 872-891
49. Sopian K., and Wan Daud W.R. Challenges and future developments in proton exchange membrane fuel cells. Renewable Energy 31 5 (2006) 719-727