Urban runoff modelling uncertainty: Comparison among Bayesian and pseudo-Bayesian methods

Environmental Modelling and Software

Volumn 24, Issue 9, 2009, Pages 1100-1111

  Freni, Gabriele ^a   Mannina, Giorgio ^a   Viviani, Gaspare ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PALERMO   (Italy)

Author keywords

Bayesian methods; Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation; Uncertainty assessment; Urban stormwater modelling

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN; BAYESIAN METHODS; BOLOGNA , ITALY; GENERALISED LIKELIHOOD UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION; GLUE METHODS; LIMITED DATUM; MEASURED DATUM; MODEL RELIABILITIES; MODEL RESULTS; PHYSICAL PROCESS; QUALITY DATUM; RECEIVING WATERS; SURFACE POLLUTIONS; UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT; URBAN RUNOFFS; URBAN STORMWATER MODELLING;

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; CALIBRATION; CATCHMENTS; GLUES; GLUING; HYDRAULIC MODELS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; QUALITY CONTROL; RUNOFF; SEWAGE; STORM SEWERS;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CALIBRATION; CATCHMENT; COMPARATIVE STUDY; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; RUNOFF; STORMWATER; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; URBAN AREA; WATER QUALITY;

BOLOGNA [EMILIA-ROMAGNA]; EMILIA-ROMAGNA; EURASIA; EUROPE; FOSSOLO; ITALY; SOUTHERN EUROPE;

EID: 67349206153     PISSN: 13648152     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.03.003     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Alley W.M., and Smith P.E. Estimation of accumulation parameters for urban runoff quality modelling. Water Resources Research 17 46 (1981) 1657-1664
2. Artina S., Maglionico M., Marinelli A., Raffaelli G., Anzalone C., Lanzarini S., and Guzzinati E. Le misure di qualità nel bacino urbano Fossolo. L'acqua 2 (1997) 17-25 (in Italian)
3. Ashley R.M., Bertrand-Krajewski J.L., Hvitved-Jacobsen T., and Verbanck M. Solids in Sewers (May 2004), IWA Publishing, London (UK) Scientific and Technical Report No. 14
4. Ashley R.M., Hvitved-Jacobsen T., and Bertrand-Krajewski J.L. Quo Vadis sewer process modelling?. Water Science and Technology 39 9 (1999) 9-22
5. Bayes, T., 1978. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 53, 53 (previous term1763) next term, pp. 370-418 (reprinted with biographical note by G.A. Barnard, in Biometrika, 45, 293-315).
6. Beck M.B. Coping with even larger problems, models, and data bases. Water Science and Technology 39 4 (1999) 1-11
7. Bertrand-Krajewski J.L., Briat P., and Scrivener O. Sewer sediment production and transport modelling: a literature review. Journal of Hydraulic Research 31 4 (1993) 435-460
8. Bertrand-Krajewski J.L. A model for solid production and transport for small urban catchments: preliminary results. Water Science and Technology 25 8 (1992) 29-35
9. Bertrand-Krajewski J.L. Stormwater pollutant loads modelling: epistemological aspects and case studies on the influence of field data sets on calibration and verification. Water Science and Technology 55 4 (2007) 1-17
10. Bertrand-Krajewski J.L., and Muste M. Understanding and managing uncertainty. In: Fletcher T.D., and Deletić A. (Eds). Data Requirements for Integrated Urban Water Management (2007) 333
11. Bertrand-Krajewski J.L., Barraud S., and Bardin J.P. Uncertainties, performance indicators and decision aid applied to storm water facilities. Urban Water 4 (2002) 163-179
12. Beven K., Smith P., and Freer J. So just why would a modeller choose to be incoherent?. Journal of Hydrology 354 (2008) 15-32
13. Beven K.J., and Binley A.M. The future of distributed models - model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological. Processes. 6 3 (1992) 279-298
14. Box G.E.P., and Cox D.R. An analysis of transformations. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (1964) 211-252
15. Box G.E.P., and Cox D.R. An analysis of transformations revisited, rebutted. Journal of the American Statistical Association 77 377 (1982) 209-210
16. Crabtree R.W. Sediments in sewers. Journal of the Institute of Water and Environmental Management 3 6 (1989) 569-578
17. Freer J., Beven K., and Ambroise B. Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in runoff prediction and the value of data: an application of the GLUE approach. Water Resources Research 32 7 (1996) 2161-2173
18. Freni G., Mannina G., and Viviani G. Uncertainty in urban stormwater quality modelling: the effect of acceptability threshold in the GLUE methodology. Water Research 42 8-9 (2008) 2061-2072
19. Freni G., Mannina G., and Viviani G. Uncertainty assessment of sewer sediment erosion modelling. Urban Water 5 1 (2008) 21-31
20. Freni, G., Mannina, G., Viviani, G., 2007. Integrated urban drainage uncertainty assessment: the influence of the likelihood efficiency measures. In: Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Sustainable Techniques and Strategies in Urban Water Management - NOVATECH 2007. Lyon, 25-28 June 2007.
21. Gaume E., Villeneuve J., and Desbordes M. Uncertainty assessment and analysis of the calibrated parameter values of an urban storm water quality model. Journal of Hydrology 210 (1998) 38-50
22. Gupta, H. V., Beven, K. J., Wagener, T., Model Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation. Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences. Edited by M. Anderson. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2005.
23. Gupta A.K., and Shrivastava R.K. Uncertainty analysis of 1 conventional water treatment plant design for suspended solids removal. Journal of Environmental Engineering 132 11 (2006) 1413-1421
24. Harremoës P. Stochastic models for estimation of extreme pollution from urban runoff. Water Resources 22 8 (1988) 1017-1026
25. Harremoës P., and Madsen H. Fiction and reality in the modelling world-balance between simplicity and complexity, calibration and identifiability, verification and falsification. Water Science and Technology 39 9 (1999) 1-8
26. Haydon S., and Deletic A. Model output uncertainty of a coupled pathogen indicator-hydrologic catchment model due to input data uncertainty. Environmental Modelling & Software 24 3 (2009) 322-328
27. Huber W.C. Deterministic modeling of urban runoff quality. In: Torno H.C., Marsalek J., and Desbordes M. (Eds). Urban Runoff Pollution. NATO ASI Series vol. G10 (1986), Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg
28. Jewell T.K., and Adrian D.D. SWMM storm water pollutant washoff function. Journal of Environmental Engineering 104 5 (1978) 1036-1040
29. Kanso A., Chebbo G., and Tassin B. Application of MCMC-GSA model calibration method to urban runoff quality modelling. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 91 10-11 (2006) 1398-1405
30. Kanso A., Gromaire M.C., Gaume E., Tassin B., and Chebbo G. Bayesian approach for the calibration of models: application to an urban stormwater pollution model. Water Science and Technology 47 4 (2003) 77-84
31. Kanso, A., Tassin, B., Chebbo, G., 2004. Managing uncertainties in urban runoff quality models: a benchmarking methodology. In: 5th Novatech, Lyon, France, pp. 199-406.
32. Kanso A., Tassin B., and Chebbo G. A benchmark methodology for managing uncertainties in urban runoff quality models. Water Science and Technology 51 2 (2005) 163-170
33. Korving H., and Clemens F. Impact of dimension uncertainty and model calibration on sewer system assessment. Water Science and Technology 52 5 (2005) 35-42
34. Kuczera G., Kavetski D., Franks S., and Thyer M. Towards a Bayesian total error analysis of conceptual rainfall-runoff models: characterising model error using storm-dependent parameters. Journal of Hydrology 331 1-2 (2006) 161-177
35. Lindblom E., Ahlman S., and Mikkelsen P.S. Uncertainty in model-based prediction of copper loads in stormwater runoff. Water Science and Technology 56 6 (2007) 11-18
36. Lindenschmidt K.E. The effect of complexity on parameter sensitivity and model uncertainty in river water quality modelling. Ecological Modelling 190 (2006) 72-86
37. Mannina, G. (2005). Integrated urban drainage modelling with uncertainty for stormwater pollution management. PhD thesis, Università di Catania, Italy.
38. Mannina, G., Freni, G., Viviani, G., Sægrov S., and Hafskjold, L.S., 2006. Integrated urban water modelling with uncertainty analysis, Water Science and Technology 54 (6-7), 379-386.
39. Mannina G., Viviani G., and Freni G. Modelling the integrated urban drainage systems. Sewer networks and processes within urban water systems. In: Bertrand-Krajewski J.L., Almeida M., Matos J., and Abdul-Talib S. (Eds). Water and Environment Management Series (WEMS) (2004), IWA Publishing 3-12
40. Mantovan P., and Todini E. Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: incoherence of the GLUE methodology. Journal of Hydrology 330 (2006) 368-381
41. McCarthy D.T., Deletic A., Mitchell V.G., Fletcher T.D., and Diaper C. Uncertainties in stormwater E. coli levels. Water Research 42 (2008) 1812-1824
42. Nash J.E., and Sutcliffe J.V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models. Journal of Hydrology 10 3 (1970) 282-290
43. Parchure T.M., and Mehta A.J. Erosion of soft cohesive sediment deposits. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 111 10 (1985) 1308-1326
44. Pearl J. On the connection between the complexity and credibility of inferred models. International Journal of General Systems 4 (1978) 255-264
45. Refsgaard J.C., Van der Sluijs J.P., Højberg A.L., and Vanrolleghem P.A. Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process - a framework and guidance. Environmental Modelling & Software 22 (2007) 1543-1556
46. Ristenpart E. Sediment properties and their changes in sewer. Water Science and Technology 25 8 (1995) 1-12
47. Romanowicz R., Higson H., and Teasdale I. Bayesian uncertainty estimation methodology applied to air pollution modelling. Environmetrics 11 3 (2000) 351-371
48. Sansalone J.J., and Chad M.C. First flush concepts for suspended and dissolved solids in small impervious watersheds. Journal of Environmental Engineering 130 11 (2004) 1301-1314
49. Schellart A., Buijs F.A., Tait S.J., and Ashley R.M. Estimation of uncertainty in long term combined sewer sediment behaviour predictions, a UK case study. In: van der Meulen M., ten Veldhuis J.A.E., and Schilperoort R.P.S. (Eds). Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Sewer Processes and Networks. Delft, 29-31 August 2007 (2007) 191-198
50. Skipworth P.J., Tait S.J., and Saul A.J. Erosion of beds in sewers: model development. Journal of Environmental Engineering 125 6 (1999) 566-573
51. Snowling S.D., and Kramer J.R. Evaluating modelling uncertainty for model selection. Ecological Modelling 138 (2001) 17-30
52. Thorndahl S., Beven K.J., Jensen J.B., and Schaarup-Jensen K. Event based uncertainty assessment in urban drainage modelling, applying the GLUE methodology. Journal of Hydrology 357 3-4 (2008) 421-437
53. Thorndahl S., and Willems P. Probabilistic modelling of over-flow, surcharge, and flooding in urban drainage using the first order reliability method and parameterization of local rain series. Water Research 42 1 (2008) 455-466
54. Willems, P., 2000. Probabilistic immission modelling for receiving surface waters. PhD thesis, Faculty of Engineering, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. Leuven, Belgium.
55. Willems P. Random number generator or sewer water quality model?. Water Science and Technology 54 6-7 (2006) 387-394
56. Willems P. Quantification and relative comparison of different types of uncertainties in sewer water quality modelling. Water Research 42 13 (2008) 3539-3551
57. Wiuff R. Transport of suspended material in open and submerged streams. Journal of Environmental Engineering ASCE 111 5 (1985) 774-792
58. Yang J., Reichert P., Abbaspour K., Xia J., and Yang H. Comparing uncertainty analysis techniques for a SWAT application to the Chaohe Basin in China. Journal of Hydrology 358 (2008) 1-23