"Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises

Journal of International Economics

Volumn 78, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 192-205

  Manasse, Paolo ^a   Roubini, Nouriel ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA   (Italy)

^b NEW YORK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Crises; Default; Sovereign debt

Indexed keywords

DEBT CRISIS; ECONOMETRICS; MACROECONOMICS; PREDICTION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SOVEREIGNTY;

EID: 67349195354     PISSN: 00221996     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2008.12.002     Document Type: Article

References (18)

1. Berg A., and Pattillo C. Are currency crises predictable? A test. Staff Papers vol. 46 (1999) 107-138 (June), No. 2
2. Berg A., Pattillo C., and Borensztein E. Assessing early warning systems: how have they worked in practice?. Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund 52 3 (2005) 462-502
3. Breiman L. Random Forest. Machine Learning (2001). http://oz.berkeley.edu/users/breiman/randomforest2001.pdf 45, 5-32. http://oz.berkeley.edu/users/breiman/randomforest2001.pdf.
4. Breiman L., Friedman J.H., Olshen R.A., and Stone C.J. Classification and Regression Trees (1984), Chapman & Hall, London
5. Beers D.T., and Bhatia A. Sovereign defaults: history. Standard & Poor's Credit Week (1999) December 22
6. Beim D.O., and Calomiris C.W. Emerging Financial Markets (2001), McGraw-Hill/Irwin, New York
7. Catão L., and Sutton B. Sovereign defaults: the role of volatility. IMF Working Paper 02/149 (2002), International Monetary Fund, Washington
8. Chamon M., Manasse P., and Prati A. Can we predict the next capital account crisis?. IMF Staff Papers 54 2 (2007)
9. Detragiache E., and Spilimbergo A. Crises and liquidity: evidence and interpretation. IMF Working Paper 01/2 (2001), International Monetary Fund, Washington
10. Frankel J., and Wei S.-J. Managing macroeconomic crises: policy lessons. NBER Working Paper 10907 (2004). http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~jfrankel/Managing%20Macroeconomic%20Crises%2 0Policy%20Lessons.pdf November. Available via the Internet http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~jfrankel/Managing%20Macroeconomic%20Crises%2 0Policy%20Lessons.pdf.
11. Friedman J.H. Greedy function approximation: a gradient boosting machine. The Annals of Statistics 29 5 (2001) 1189-1232
12. Ghosh S., and Ghosh A. Structural vulnerabilities and currency crises. IMF Working Paper 02/9 (2002), International Monetary Fund, Washington
13. Henisz W.J. The institutional environment for infrastructure investment. Industrial and Corporate Change 11 Number 2 (2002) 355-389
14. Manasse P., Roubini N., and Schimmelpfennig A. Predicting sovereign debt crises. IMF Working Paper 03/221 (2003), International Monetary Fund, Washington
15. Mody, Ashoka, and Saravia, Diego 2003, Catalyzing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF-Supported Programs Work as Commitment Devices? Working Paper, 03/100.
16. Reinhart C.M. Default, currency crises and sovereign credit ratings. NBER Working Paper 8738. The World Bank Economic Review vol. 16, No. 2 (2002) 151-170
17. Roubini N., and Setser B. Bailouts or bail-ins?. Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies (2004), Institute for International Economics, Washington
18. Standard and Poor's, 2002. Sovereign Defaults: Moving Higher Again in 2003? (September 24) [Reprinted for Ratings Direct].