Connectivity sustains disease transmission in environments with low potential for endemicity: Modelling schistosomiasis with hydrologic and social connectivities

Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Volumn 6, Issue 35, 2009, Pages 495-508

  Gurarie, David ^a   Seto, Edmund Y W ^b  

^a CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Connectivity; Disease control; Infectious diseases; Mathematical modelling; Metapopulations; Network

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; FORESTRY; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PLANTS (BOTANY);

CONNECTIVITY; INFECTIOUS DISEASES; MATHEMATICAL MODELLING; METAPOPULATIONS; NETWORK;

DISEASE CONTROL;

ARTICLE; ENDEMIC DISEASE; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; HOST PARASITE INTERACTION; HYDROLOGY; LARVA; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; METAPOPULATION; PARASITE CONTROL; PARASITE TRANSMISSION; SCHISTOSOMIASIS; SOCIAL BEHAVIOR;

EID: 66749153364     PISSN: 17425689     EISSN: 17425662     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2008.0265     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. 1991 Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
2. Appleton, C. C., Ngxongo, S. M., Braack, L. E. & le Sueur, D. 1996 Schistosoma mansoni in migrants entering South Africa from Mocambique - a threat to public health in north-eastern KwaZulu-Natal? S. Afr. Med. J. 86, 350-353.
3. Barbera, J., Macintyre, A., Gostin, L., Inglesby, T., O'Toole, T., DeAtley, C., Tonat, K. & Layton, M. 2001 Large-scale quarantine following biological terrorism in the United States - scientific examination, logistic and legal limits, and possible consequences. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 286, 2711-2717. (doi:10.1001/jama.286.21.2711)
4. Barbour, A. D. 1978 Macdonald's model and the transmission of bilharzia. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 72, 6-15. (doi:10.1016/0035-9203(78)90290-0)
5. Bella, H., de C Marshall, T. F., Omer, A. H. & Vaughan, J. P. 1980 Migrant workers and schistosomiasis in the Gezira, Sudan. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 74, 36-39. (doi:10.1016/0035-9203(80)90008-5) (Pubitemid 10095300)
6. Benziger, V. 1996 Urban access and rural productivity growth in post-Mao China. Econ. Dev. Cult. Change 44, 539-570. (doi:10.1086/452231)
7. Brown, J. K. M. & Hovmoller, M. S. 2002 Epidemiology - aerial dispersal of pathogens on the global and continental scales and its impact on plant disease. Science 297, 537-541. (doi:10.1126/science.1072678)
8. Cetron, M. S., Chitsulo, L., Sullivan, J. J., Pilcher, J., Wilson, M., Noh, J., Tsang, V. C., Hightower, A. W. & Addiss, D. G. 1996 Schistosomiasis in Lake Malawi. Lancet 348, 1274-1278. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(96)01511-5) (Pubitemid 26377239)
9. Chitsulo, L., Engels, D., Montresor, A. & Savioli, L. 2000 The global status of schistosomiasis and its control. Acta Trop. 77, 41-51. (doi:10.1016/S0001-706X(00)00122-4)
10. Fang, C. & Dewen, W. 2003 Migration as marketization: what can we learn from China's 2000 census data? China Rev. 3, 73-93.
11. Grais, R. F., Ellis, J. H. & Glass, G. E. 2003 Assessing the impact of airline travel on the geographic spread of pandemic influenza. Eur. J. Epidemiol. 18, 1065-1072. [Erratum in Eur. J. Epidemiol. 19, 395.]
12. Grenfell, B. & Harwood, J. 1997 (Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases. Trends Ecol. Evol. 12, 395-399. (doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(97) 01174-9)
13. Gurarie, D. & King, C. H. 2005 Heterogeneous model of schistosomiasis transmission and long-term control: the combined influence of spatial variation and age-dependent factors on optimal allocation of drug therapy. Parasitology 130, 49-65. (doi:10.1017/S0031182004006341)
14. Hagenaars, T. J., Donnelly, C. A. & Ferguson, N. M. 2004 Spatial heterogeneity and the persistence of infectious diseases. J. Theor. Biol. 229, 349-359. (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.04.002)
15. Halloran, M. 2001 Concepts of transmission and dynamics. In Epidemiologic methods for the study of infectious diseases (eds J. C. Thomas & D. J. Weber), pp. 56-85. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
16. Hanski, I. 2001 Spatially realistic theory of metapopulation ecology. Naturwissenschaften 88, 372-381. (doi:10.1007/s001140100246) (Pubitemid 32912449)
17. Haynes, K. A. & Fotheringham, A. S. 1984 Gravity and spatial interaction models. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.
18. Leuck, D., Haley, M. & Harvey, D. 2004 US 2003 and 2004 livestock and poultry trade influenced by animal disease and trade restrictions. Outlook report no. LDPM12001. United States Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC.
19. Li, Y. S., Raso, G., Zhao, Z. Y., He, Y. K., Ellis, M. K. & McManus, D. P. 2007 Large water management projects and schistosomiasis control, Dongting Lake Region, China. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 13, 973-979.
20. Liang, S. et al. 2007 Environmental effects on parasitic disease transmission exemplified by schistosomiasis in western China. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 7110-7115. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0701878104)
21. Lowe, D., Xi, J. Y., Meng, X. H., Wu, Z. S., Qiu, D. C. & Spear, R. 2005 Transport of Schistosoma japonicum cercariae and the feasibility of niclosamide for cercariae control. Parasitol. Int. 54, 83-89. (doi:10.1016/j.parint.2004.12.003)
22. Macdonald, G. 1965 The dynamics of helminth infections, with special reference to schistosomes. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 59, 489-506. (doi:10.1016/0035-9203(65)90152-5)
23. May, R. M. 1977 Togetherness among schistosomes: its effects on the dynamics of the infection. Math. Biosci. 35, 301-343. (doi:10.1016/0025-5564(77) )
24. Olsen, B., Munster, V. J., Wallensten, A., Waldenstrom, J., Osterhaus, A. D. M. E. & Fouchier, R. A. M. 2006 Global patterns of influenza A virus in wild birds. Science 312, 384-388. (doi:10.1126/science.1122438)
25. Ooi, P. L., Lim, S. & Chew, S. K. 2005 Use of quarantine in the control of SARS in Singapore. Am. J. Infect. Control 33, 252-257. (doi:10.1016/j.ajic.2004.08.007)
26. Picquet, M., Ernould, J. C., Vercruysse, J., Southgate, V. R., Mbaye, A., Sambou, B., Niang, M. & Rollinson, D. 1996 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene meeting at Manson House, London, 18 May 1995. The epidemiology of human schistosomiasis in the Senegal river basin. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 90, 340-346. (doi:10.1016/S0035-9203(96)90501-5)
27. Ravaoalimalala, V., Leutscher, P., Esterre, P. & Roux, J. 1995 Epidémiologie de la schistosomose à Schistosoma haematobium dans le fivondronana de Mahabo: situation après la destruction du barrage de Dabara. Arch. Inst. Pasteur Madagascar 62, 133-135.
28. Ross, A. G., Sleigh, A. C., Li, Y., Davis, G. M., Williams, G. M., Jiang, Z., Feng, Z. & McManus, D. P. 2001 Schistosomiasis in the People's Republic of China: prospects and challenges for the 21st century. Clin. Microbiol. Rev. 14, 270-295. (doi:10.1128/CMR.14.2.270-295.2001)
29. Sattenspiel, L. & Herring, D. A. 2003 Simulating the effect of quarantine on the spread of the 1918-19 flu in central Canada. Bull. Math. Biol. 65, 1-26. (doi:10.1006/bulm.2002.0317)
30. Savioli, L., Stansfield, S.,Bundy,D. A., Mitchell, A.,Bhatia, R., Engels, D., Montresor, A., Neira, M. & Shein, A. M. 2002 Schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminth infections: forging control efforts. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 96, 577-579. (doi:10.1016/S0035-9203(02)90316-0)
31. Seto, E. Y., Lee, Y. J., Liang, S. & Zhong, B. 2007a Individual and village-level study of water contact patterns and Schistosoma japonicum infection in mountainous rural China. Trop. Med. Int. Health 12, 1199-1209.
32. Seto, E. Y. W., Knapp, F., Zhong, B. & Yang, C. 2007b The use of a vest equipped with a global positioning system to assess water-contact patterns associated with schistosomiasis. Geospat. Health 2, 233-241.
33. Spear, R. C. et al. 2004 Factors influencing the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in the mountains of Sichuan Province of China. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 70, 48-56.
34. Steinmann, P., Keiser, J., Bos, R., Tanner, M. & Utzinger, J. 2006 Schistosomiasis and water resources development: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimates of people at risk. Lancet Infect. Dis. 6, 411-425. (doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(06)70521-7)
35. Talla, I., Kongs, A., Verle, P., Belot, J., Sarr, S. & Coll, A. M. 1990 Outbreak of intestinal schistosomiasis in the Senegal River Basin. Ann. Soc. Belg. Med. Trop. 70, 173-180.
36. Woolhouse, M. E. 1991 On the application of mathematical models of schistosome transmission dynamics. I. Natural transmission. Acta Trop. 49, 241-270. (doi:10.1016/0001-706X(91)90077-W)
37. Woolhouse, M. & Donaldson, A. 2001 Managing foot-and-mouth-the science of controlling disease outbreaks. Nature 410, 515-516. (doi:10.1038/35069250)
38. World Health Organization Department of Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response 2004 WHO SARS Risk Assessment and Preparedness Framework. WHO/CDS/CSR/ARO/2004.2. See http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/WHO- CDS-CSR-ARO-2004-2/en/index.html.
39. Ximenes, R. A., Southgate, B., Smith, P. G. & Guimarães Neto, L. 2000 Migration and urban schistosomiasis. The case of São Lourenço da Mata, northeast of Brazil. Rev. Inst. Med. Trop. Sao Paulo 42, 209-217. (doi:10.1590/S0036-46652000000400006)