메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 116, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 454-461

Perceptions of Randomness: Why Three Heads Are Better Than Four

Author keywords

gambler's fallacy; intuitive statistics; probability; randomness; representativeness

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; DECISION MAKING; HUMAN; INTUITION; PATHOLOGICAL GAMBLING; PROBABILITY; STATISTICS;

EID: 65349109151     PISSN: 0033295X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/a0015241     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (111)

References (40)
  • 3
    • 48049092277 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting World Cup results: Do goals seem more likely when they pay off?
    • Bar-Hillel M., Budescu D.V., and Amar M. Predicting World Cup results: Do goals seem more likely when they pay off?. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 15 (2008) 278-283
    • (2008) Psychonomic Bulletin & Review , vol.15 , pp. 278-283
    • Bar-Hillel, M.1    Budescu, D.V.2    Amar, M.3
  • 5
    • 0038458652 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Small feedback-based decisions and their limited correspondence to description-based decisions
    • Barron G., and Erev I. Small feedback-based decisions and their limited correspondence to description-based decisions. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 16 (2003) 215-233
    • (2003) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.16 , pp. 215-233
    • Barron, G.1    Erev, I.2
  • 9
    • 12044259660 scopus 로고
    • Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes
    • Erev I., Wallsten T.S., and Budescu D.V. Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review 101 (1994) 519-527
    • (1994) Psychological Review , vol.101 , pp. 519-527
    • Erev, I.1    Wallsten, T.S.2    Budescu, D.V.3
  • 10
    • 0347877168 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Making sense of randomness: Implicit encoding as a basis for judgment
    • Falk R., and Konold C. Making sense of randomness: Implicit encoding as a basis for judgment. Psychological Review 104 (1997) 301-318
    • (1997) Psychological Review , vol.104 , pp. 301-318
    • Falk, R.1    Konold, C.2
  • 11
    • 0034295335 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Beware of samples! A cognitive-ecological sampling approach to judgment biases
    • Fiedler K. Beware of samples! A cognitive-ecological sampling approach to judgment biases. Psychological Review 107 (2000) 659-676
    • (2000) Psychological Review , vol.107 , pp. 659-676
    • Fiedler, K.1
  • 12
    • 0034277667 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A sampling approach to biases in conditional probability judgments: Beyond base rate neglect and statistical format
    • Fiedler K., Brinkmann B., Betsch T., and Wild B. A sampling approach to biases in conditional probability judgments: Beyond base rate neglect and statistical format. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 129 (2000) 399-418
    • (2000) Journal of Experimental Psychology: General , vol.129 , pp. 399-418
    • Fiedler, K.1    Brinkmann, B.2    Betsch, T.3    Wild, B.4
  • 15
    • 34250201608 scopus 로고
    • String overlaps, pattern matching, and nontransitive games
    • Guibas L.J., and Odlyzko A.M. String overlaps, pattern matching, and nontransitive games. Journal of Combinatorial Theory 30 (1981) 183-208
    • (1981) Journal of Combinatorial Theory , vol.30 , pp. 183-208
    • Guibas, L.J.1    Odlyzko, A.M.2
  • 16
    • 84868929332 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The naïve statistician: Organism-environment relations from yet another angle
    • Chater N., and Oaksford M. (Eds), Oxford University Press, New York
    • Hansson P., Juslin P., and Winman A. The naïve statistician: Organism-environment relations from yet another angle. In: Chater N., and Oaksford M. (Eds). The probabilistic mind: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science (2008), Oxford University Press, New York 237-260
    • (2008) The probabilistic mind: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science , pp. 237-260
    • Hansson, P.1    Juslin, P.2    Winman, A.3
  • 17
    • 4043119771 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events in risky choice
    • Hertwig R., Barron G., Weber E.U., and Erev I. Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events in risky choice. Psychological Science 15 (2004) 534-539
    • (2004) Psychological Science , vol.15 , pp. 534-539
    • Hertwig, R.1    Barron, G.2    Weber, E.U.3    Erev, I.4
  • 18
    • 51249108858 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The conjunction fallacy and the many meanings of and
    • Hertwig R., Benz B., and Krauss S. The conjunction fallacy and the many meanings of and. Cognition 108 (2008) 740-753
    • (2008) Cognition , vol.108 , pp. 740-753
    • Hertwig, R.1    Benz, B.2    Krauss, S.3
  • 19
    • 44249123884 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The game of life: How small samples render choice simpler
    • Chater N., and Oaksford M. (Eds), Oxford University Press, New York
    • Hertwig R., and Pleskac T.J. The game of life: How small samples render choice simpler. In: Chater N., and Oaksford M. (Eds). The probabilistic mind: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science (2008), Oxford University Press, New York 209-236
    • (2008) The probabilistic mind: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science , pp. 209-236
    • Hertwig, R.1    Pleskac, T.J.2
  • 20
    • 11944263355 scopus 로고
    • The social context of reasoning: Conversational inference and rational judgment
    • Hilton D.J. The social context of reasoning: Conversational inference and rational judgment. Psychological Bulletin 118 (1995) 248-271
    • (1995) Psychological Bulletin , vol.118 , pp. 248-271
    • Hilton, D.J.1
  • 21
    • 0034169210 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effect
    • Juslin P., Winman A., and Olsson H. Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effect. Psychological Review 107 (2000) 384-396
    • (2000) Psychological Review , vol.107 , pp. 384-396
    • Juslin, P.1    Winman, A.2    Olsson, H.3
  • 22
    • 0013305901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment
    • Gilovich T., Griffin D., and Kahneman D. (Eds), Cambridge University Press, New York
    • Kahneman D., and Frederick S. Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. In: Gilovich T., Griffin D., and Kahneman D. (Eds). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (2001), Cambridge University Press, New York 49-81
    • (2001) Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment , pp. 49-81
    • Kahneman, D.1    Frederick, S.2
  • 23
    • 49649138413 scopus 로고
    • Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
    • Kahneman D., and Tversky A. Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology 3 (1972) 430-454
    • (1972) Cognitive Psychology , vol.3 , pp. 430-454
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 24
  • 26
    • 0034168019 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seven (indeed, plus or minus two) and the detection of correlations
    • Kareev Y. Seven (indeed, plus or minus two) and the detection of correlations. Psychological Review 107 (2000) 397-402
    • (2000) Psychological Review , vol.107 , pp. 397-402
    • Kareev, Y.1
  • 27
    • 33846114810 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The influence of outcome desirability on optimism
    • Krizan Z., and Windschitl P.D. The influence of outcome desirability on optimism. Psychological Bulletin 133 (2007) 95-121
    • (2007) Psychological Bulletin , vol.133 , pp. 95-121
    • Krizan, Z.1    Windschitl, P.D.2
  • 29
    • 61349095626 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mathworks, Author, Natick, MA
    • Mathworks. MATLAB (Version 7.4) (2007), Author, Natick, MA
    • (2007) MATLAB (Version 7.4)
  • 30
    • 11144290736 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Framing effects in inference tasks-and why they are normatively defensible
    • McKenzie C.R.M. Framing effects in inference tasks-and why they are normatively defensible. Memory & Cognition 32 (2004) 874-875
    • (2004) Memory & Cognition , vol.32 , pp. 874-875
    • McKenzie, C.R.M.1
  • 32
    • 85047674337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The production and perception of randomness
    • Nickerson R.S. The production and perception of randomness. Psychological Review 109 (2002) 330-357
    • (2002) Psychological Review , vol.109 , pp. 330-357
    • Nickerson, R.S.1
  • 33
    • 21844522687 scopus 로고
    • A rational analysis of the selection task as optimal data selection
    • Oaksford M., and Chater N. A rational analysis of the selection task as optimal data selection. Psychological Review 101 (1994) 608-631
    • (1994) Psychological Review , vol.101 , pp. 608-631
    • Oaksford, M.1    Chater, N.2
  • 34
    • 5344244656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R Development Core Team Available from http://www.r-project.org
    • R Development Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing (2008). http://www.r-project.org Available from http://www.r-project.org
    • (2008) R: A language and environment for statistical computing
  • 35
  • 37
    • 0002931074 scopus 로고
    • Judgments of and by representativeness
    • Kahneman D., Slovic P., and Tversky A. (Eds), Cambridge University Press, New York
    • Tversky A., and Kahnemen D. Judgments of and by representativeness. In: Kahneman D., Slovic P., and Tversky A. (Eds). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982), Cambridge University Press, New York 84-98
    • (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , pp. 84-98
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahnemen, D.2
  • 40
    • 0040659220 scopus 로고
    • Variables that influence random generation: An alternative hypothesis
    • Weiss R.L. Variables that influence random generation: An alternative hypothesis. Perceptual and Motor Skills 20 (1965) 307-310
    • (1965) Perceptual and Motor Skills , vol.20 , pp. 307-310
    • Weiss, R.L.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.