Predicting population survival under future climate change: Density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep

Journal of Animal Ecology

Volumn 78, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 666-673

  Colchero, Fernando ^a,b   Medellin, Rodrigo A ^c   Clark, James S ^a,d   Lee, Raymond ^e   Katul, Gabriel G ^a  

^a DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH   (Germany)

^c UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO   (Mexico)

^d Duke University   (United States)

^e Foundation for North American Wild Sheep   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian state space model; Bighorn sheep; Climate change; Density dependence; Population dynamics

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT; DATA SET; DENSITY DEPENDENCE; DROUGHT STRESS; ENDANGERED SPECIES; INTRODUCED SPECIES; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PROBABILITY; SHEEP; SURVIVAL;

ADAPTATION; ANIMAL; ARTICLE; DROUGHT; GEOGRAPHY; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; MEXICO; MONTE CARLO METHOD; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SHEEP; SPECIES EXTINCTION; TIME;

ADAPTATION, BIOLOGICAL; ANIMALS; DROUGHTS; EXTINCTION, BIOLOGICAL; GEOGRAPHY; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; MEXICO; MONTE CARLO METHOD; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SHEEP, BIGHORN; TIME FACTORS;

MEXICO [NORTH AMERICA]; NORTH AMERICA; SONORA; TIBURON;

OVIS ARIES; OVIS CANADENSIS; UNGULATA;

EID: 63849337489     PISSN: 00218790     EISSN: 13652656     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01528.x     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Bleich, V.C., Wehausen, J.D. Holl, S.A. (1990) Desert-dwelling mountain sheep: conservation implications of a naturally fragmented distribution. Conservation Biology, 4, 383 390.
2. Choquenot, D. (1991) Density-dependent growth, body condition, and demography in feral donkeys: testing the food hypothesis. Ecology, 72, 805 813.
3. Clark, J.S. Bjornstad, O.N. (2004) Population time series: process variability, observation errors, missing values, lags, and hidden states. Ecology, 85, 3140 3150.
4. Clutton-Brock, T.H., Illius, A.W., Wilson, K., Grenfell, B.T., MacColl, A.D.C. Albon, S.D. (1997) Stability and instability in ungulate populations: an empirical analysis. The American Naturalist, 149, 195 219.
5. Collins, M., Tett, S.F.B. Cooper, C. (2001) The internal climate variability of HadCMw, a version of the Hadley Center coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics, 17, 61 81.
6. Coulson, T., Milner-Gulland, E.J. Clutton-Brock, T. (2000) The relative roles of density and climatic variation on population dynamics and fecundity rates in three contrasting ungulate species. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 267, 1771 1779.
7. Coulson, T., Catchpole, E.A., Albon, S.D., Morgan, B.J.T., Pemberton, J.M., Clutton-Brock, T.H., Crawley, M.J. Grenfell, B.T. (2001) Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Nature, 292, 1528 1531.
8. DeForge, J.R. Valdez, R. (1984) Status of investigations of desert bighorn sheep in Sonora, Mexico. Desert Bighorn Council Transactions, 28, 41 43.
9. Deming, O.V. (1961) Bighorn sheep transplants at the Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge. Desert Bighorn Sheep Council Transaction, 5, 56 57.
10. DeYoung, R.W., Hellgren, E.C., Fulbright, T.E., Robbins, Jr., W.F. Humphreys, I.D. (2000) Modeling nutritional carrying capacity for translocated desert bighorn sheep in Western Texas. Restoration Ecology, 8, 57 65.
11. Epps, C.W., McCullough, D.R., Wehausen, J.D., Bleich, V.C. Rechel, J.L. (2004) Effect of climate change on population persistence of desert-dwelling mountain sheep in California. Conservation Biology, 18, 102 113.
12. Ezcurra, E. Rodrigues, V. (1986) Rainfall patterns in the Gran Desierto, Sonora, Mexico. Journal of Arid Environments, 10, 13 28.
13. Ezcurra, E., Equihua, M. Lopez-Portillo, J. (1987) The desert vegetation of El Pinacate, Sonora, Mexico. Vegetatio, 71, 49 60.
14. Festa-Bianchet, M., Coulson, T., Gaillard, J.M., Hogg, J.T. Pelletier, F. (2006) Stochastic predation events and population persistence in bighorn sheep. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 273, 1537 1543.
15. Gaillard, J.M., Festa-Bianchet, M. Yoccoz, N.G. (1998) Population dynamics of large herbivores: variable recruitment with constant adult survival. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 13, 58 63.
16. Gelfand, A.E. Ghosh, S.K. (1998) Model choice: a minimum posterior predictive loss approach. Biometrika, 85, 1 11.
17. Gelfand, A.E. Smith, A.F.M. (1990) Sampling-based approach to calculating marginal densities. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85, 398 409.
18. Grenfell, B.T., Price, O.F., Albon, S.D. Clutton-Brock, T.H. (1992) Overcompensation and population cycles in an ungulate. Nature, 355, 823 826.
19. Gross, J.E., Singer, F.J. Moses, M.E. (2000) Effects of disease, dispersal, and area on bighorn sheep restoration. Restoration Ecology, 8, 25 37.
20. Hayes, C.L., Robin, E.S., Jorgensen, M.C., Botta, R.A. Boyce, W.M. (2000) Mountain lion predation of bighorn sheep in the peninsular ranges, California. Journal of Wildlife Management, 64, 954 959.
21. Heim, Jr. R.R. (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83, 1149 1165.
22. Hulme, P.E. (2005) Adapting to climate change: is there scope for ecological management in the face of a global threat? Journal of Applied Ecology, 42, 784 794.
23. IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
24. Jacobson, A.R., Provenzale, A., von Hardenberg, A., Bassano, B. Festa-Bianchet, M. (2004) Climate forcing and density dependence in a mountain ungulate population. Ecology, 85, 1598 1610.
25. Larter, N.C., Sinclair, A.R.E., Ellsworth, T., Nishi, J. Gates, C.C. (2000) Dynamics of reintroduction in an indigenous large ungulate: the wood bison of northern Canada. Animal Conservation, 4, 299 309.
26. Lee, R. (2001) The current status of desert bighorn sheep on Tiburon Island. Report prepared for the Center of Ecology of the Autonomous University of Mexico.
27. Lee, R. Lopez-Saavedra, E.E. (1993) Helicopter survey of desert bighorn sheep in Sonora, Mexico. Desert Bighorn Council Transaction 37, 29 32.
28. Mduma, S.A.R., Sinclair, A.R.E. Hiborn, R. (1999) Food regulates the Serengeti wildebeest: a 40-year record. Journal of Animal Ecology, 68, 1101 1122.
29. Medellín, R.A., Manterola, C., Valdez, M., Hewitt, D.G., Doan-Crider, D. Fulbright, T.E. (2005) History, ecology, and conservation of the pronghorn antelope, bighorn sheep, and black bear in Mexico. Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Conservation in Northern Mexico. (eds J.L. Cartron, G. Ceballos R.S. Felger), pp. 387 404. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
30. Miller, R., Remington, R., Lee, R.M., Van den Berge, R. Haderlie, M. (1989) Efficiency of Bighorn Sheep Helicopter Surveys. Arizona Game and Fish Department. Special report, Phoenix, Arizona.
31. Milner, O.S.M., Bonenfant, C., Mysterud, A., Gaillard, J.M., Csanyi, S. Stenseth, N.C. (2006) Temporal and spatial development of red deer harvesting in Europe: biological and cultural factors. Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 721 734.
32. Mitchell, T.D., Carter, T.R., Jones, P.D., Hulme, M. New, M. (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100). Working Paper 55, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Norwich (Vol. in review).
33. Montoya, B. Gates, G. (1975) Bighorn capture and transplant in Mexico. Desert Bighorn Council Transaction, 402, 28 32.
34. R Development Core Team (2008) r: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL http://www.R-project.org.
35. Rahmstorf, S., Cazenave, A., Church, J.A., Hansen, J.E., Keeling, R.F., Parker, D.E. Somerville, R.C.J. (2007) Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science, 316, 709.
36. Remington, R. Welsh, G. (1989) Surveying bighorn sheep. The Desert Bighorn Sheep in Arizona (ed. R. Lee), pp. 63 81. Arizona Game and Fish Department, Phoenix, Arizona.
37. Saether, B.E. (1997) Population dynamics of large herbivores: a search for mechanisms. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 12, 143 149.
38. Sinclair, A.R.E., Dublin, H. Borner, M. (1985) Population regulation of Serengeti wildebeest: a test of the food hypothesis. Oecologia, 65, 266 268.
39. Singer, F.J., Zeigenfuss, L.C. Spicer, L. (2001) Role of patch size, disease, and movement in rapid extinction of bighorn sheep. Conservation Biology, 15, 1347 1354.
40. Stenseth, N.C., Mysterud, A., Ottersen, G., Hurrell, J.W., Chan, K.S. Lima, M. (2002) Ecological effects of climate fluctuations. Science, 297, 1292 1296.
41. Svoboda, M., LeComte, D., Hayes, M., Heim, R., Gleason, K., Angel, J., Rippey, B., Tinker, R., Palecki, M., Stooksbury, D., Miskus, D. Stephens, S. (2002) The drought monitor. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83, 1181 1190.
42. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., Ferreira de Siqueira, M., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., van JaaRsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Peterson, A.T., Phillips, O.L. Williams, S.E. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145 148.
43. Torres, S.G., Bleich, V.C. Wehausen, J.D. (1994) Status of bighorn sheep in California, 1993. Desert Bighorn Council Transactions, 38, 17 28.
44. Turchin, P. (1990) Rarity of density dependence or population regulation with lags? Nature, 344, 660 663.
45. Turchin, P. (2003) Complex Population Dynamics. A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
46. Turchin, P., Taylor, A.D. Reeve, J.D. (1999) Dynamical role of predators in population cycles of a forest insect: an experimental test. Science, 285, 1068 1071.
47. Turner, J.C. Hansen, C.G. (1990) Reproduction. The Desert Bighorn. Its Life History, Ecology, and Management (eds G. Monson L. Sumner), pp. 145 151. The Univerisity of Arizona Press. Tucson, Arizona.
48. Woodgerd, W.R. (1964) Population dynamics of bighorn sheep on Wildrose Island. Journal of Wildlife Management, 28, 381 391.
49. Wright, R.G. (1999) Wildlife management in the National Parks: questions in search of answers. Ecological Applications, 9, 30 36.
50. Young, T.P. (1994) Natural die-offs of large mammals: implications for conservation. Conservation Biology, 8, 410 418.