메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 28, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 698-711

Can consumer sentiment and its components forecast Australian GDP and consumption?

Author keywords

Bayesian; Cointegration; Composite forecast; Consumer sentiment

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING;

EID: 63049115628     PISSN: 02776693     EISSN: 1099131X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/for.1120     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (14)

References (33)
  • 1
    • 0002591728 scopus 로고
    • Consumer confidence and rational expectations: Are agents' beliefs consistent with the theory?
    • Acemoglu D, Scott A. 1994. Consumer confidence and rational expectations: are agents' beliefs consistent with the theory? Economic Journal 104: 1-19.
    • (1994) Economic Journal , vol.104 , pp. 1-19
    • Acemoglu, D.1    Scott, A.2
  • 2
    • 2242430277 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting cointegrated series with BVAR models
    • Amisano G, Serati M. 1999. Forecasting cointegrated series with BVAR models. Journal of Forecasting 18: 463-476.
    • (1999) Journal of Forecasting , vol.18 , pp. 463-476
    • Amisano, G.1    Serati, M.2
  • 4
    • 0000428582 scopus 로고
    • Advertising and aggregate consumption: An analysis of causality
    • Ashley R, Granger CWJ, Schmalensee R. 1980. Advertising and aggregate consumption: an analysis of causality. Econometrica 48: 1149-1167.
    • (1980) Econometrica , vol.48 , pp. 1149-1167
    • Ashley, R.1    Granger, C.W.J.2    Schmalensee, R.3
  • 5
    • 0000412860 scopus 로고
    • Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why?
    • Carroll CD, Fuhrer JC, Wilcox DW. 1994. Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why? American Economic Review 84: 1397-1408.
    • (1994) American Economic Review , vol.84 , pp. 1397-1408
    • Carroll, C.D.1    Fuhrer, J.C.2    Wilcox, D.W.3
  • 6
    • 33645735904 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting the global electronics cycle with leading indicators: A Bayesian VAR approach
    • Chow HK, Choy KM. 2006. Forecasting the global electronics cycle with leading indicators: a Bayesian VAR approach. International Journal of Forecasting 22: 301-315.
    • (2006) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.22 , pp. 301-315
    • Chow, H.K.1    Choy, K.M.2
  • 7
    • 0037403873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: A step beyond
    • Clarida RH, Sarno L, Taylor MP, Valente G. 2003. The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond. Journal of International Economics 60: 61-83.
    • (2003) Journal of International Economics , vol.60 , pp. 61-83
    • Clarida, R.H.1    Sarno, L.2    Taylor, M.P.3    Valente, G.4
  • 8
    • 45249128876 scopus 로고
    • Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography
    • Clemen RT. 1989. Combining forecasts: a review and annotated bibliography. International Journal of Forecasting 5: 559-583.
    • (1989) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.5 , pp. 559-583
    • Clemen, R.T.1
  • 10
    • 0035622020 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive power of the index of consumer sentiment
    • Howrey EP. 2001. Predictive power of the index of consumer sentiment. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 175-207.
    • (2001) Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , vol.1 , pp. 175-207
    • Howrey, E.P.1
  • 13
    • 73949158595 scopus 로고
    • The Mass Consumption Society. McGraw-Hill: New York
    • Katona G. 1964. The Mass Consumption Society. McGraw-Hill: New York.
    • (1964)
    • Katona, G.1
  • 15
    • 0039263257 scopus 로고
    • Predicting the turning points of business and economic time series
    • Kling JL. 1987. Predicting the turning points of business and economic time series. Journal of Business 60: 201-238.
    • (1987) Journal of Business , vol.60 , pp. 201-238
    • Kling, J.L.1
  • 16
    • 0000435804 scopus 로고
    • A comparison of the forecasting ability of ECM and VAR models
    • LeSage JP. 1990. A comparison of the forecasting ability of ECM and VAR models. Review of Economics and Statistics 72: 664-671.
    • (1990) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.72 , pp. 664-671
    • LeSage, J.P.1
  • 17
    • 33645008997 scopus 로고
    • Analysis and development of leading indicators using a Bayesian turning-points approach
    • LeSage JP. 1991. Analysis and development of leading indicators using a Bayesian turning-points approach. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 9: 305-316.
    • (1991) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.9 , pp. 305-316
    • LeSage, J.P.1
  • 18
    • 21444437852 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Co-integration constraint and forecasting: An empirical examination
    • Lin JL, Tsay RS. 1996. Co-integration constraint and forecasting: an empirical examination. Journal of Applied Econometrics 11: 519-538.
    • (1996) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.11 , pp. 519-538
    • Lin, J.L.1    Tsay, R.S.2
  • 19
    • 70350098001 scopus 로고
    • Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions
    • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
    • Litterman RB. 1979. Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions. Working paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • (1979) Working Paper
    • Litterman, R.B.1
  • 20
    • 84952504842 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions: Five years of experience
    • Litterman RB. 1986. Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions: five years of experience. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4: 25-38.
    • (1986) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.4 , pp. 25-38
    • Litterman, R.B.1
  • 21
    • 84979340104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • To combine or not to combine? Issues of combining forecasts
    • Palm FC, Zellner A. 2006. To combine or not to combine? Issues of combining forecasts. Journal of Forecasting 11: 687-701.
    • (2006) Journal of Forecasting , vol.11 , pp. 687-701
    • Palm, F.C.1    Zellner, A.2
  • 22
    • 84954220021 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decision-based methods for forecast evaluation
    • Clements MP, Hendry DF (eds), Blackwell: Oxford
    • Pesaran MH, Skouras S. 2001. Decision-based methods for forecast evaluation. In A Companion to Economic Forecasting, Clements MP, Hendry DF (eds). Blackwell: Oxford; 241-267.
    • (2001) A Companion to Economic Forecasting , pp. 241-267
    • Pesaran, M.H.1    Skouras, S.2
  • 23
    • 0035608799 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving federal funds rate forecasts in VAR models used for policy analysis
    • Robertson JC, Tallman EW. 2001. Improving Federal Funds rate forecasts in VAR models used for policy analysis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 19: 324-330.
    • (2001) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.19 , pp. 324-330
    • Robertson, J.C.1    Tallman, E.W.2
  • 24
    • 0001239256 scopus 로고
    • Multiple cointegrating vectors, error correction, and forecasting with Litterman's model
    • Shoesmith GL. 1995. Multiple cointegrating vectors, error correction, and forecasting with Litterman's model. International Journal of Forecasting 11: 557-567.
    • (1995) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.11 , pp. 557-567
    • Shoesmith, G.L.1
  • 25
    • 0000997472 scopus 로고
    • Macroeconomics and reality
    • Sims CA. 1980. Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica 48: 1-48.
    • (1980) Econometrica , vol.48 , pp. 1-48
    • Sims, C.A.1
  • 26
    • 0347466670 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models
    • Sims CA, Zha T. 1998. Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models. International Economic Review 39: 949-968.
    • (1998) International Economic Review , vol.39 , pp. 949-968
    • Sims, C.A.1    Zha, T.2
  • 27
    • 1642416606 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Expectations, heterogenous forecast errors and consumption: Micro evidence from the Michigan consumer sentiment surveys
    • Souleles N. 2004. Expectations, heterogenous forecast errors and consumption: micro evidence from the Michigan consumer sentiment surveys. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 36: 39-72.
    • (2004) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , vol.36 , pp. 39-72
    • Souleles, N.1
  • 29
  • 30
    • 0041908397 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting australia's economic performance during the asian crisis
    • Summers PM. 2001. Forecasting Australia's economic performance during the Asian crisis. International Journal of Forecasting 17: 499-515.
    • (2001) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.17 , pp. 499-515
    • Summers, P.M.1
  • 32
    • 0000849261 scopus 로고
    • Combining probability distributions from dependent information sources
    • Winkler RL. 1981. Combining probability distributions from dependent information sources. Management Science 27: 479-488.
    • (1981) Management Science , vol.27 , pp. 479-488
    • Winkler, R.L.1
  • 33
    • 28344437687 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Confidence and the real economy: The Japanese case
    • Utaka A. 2003. Confidence and the real economy: the Japanese case. Applied Economics 35: 337-342.
    • (2003) Applied Economics , vol.35 , pp. 337-342
    • Utaka, A.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.