메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 19, Issue 3, 2001, Pages 324-330

Improving federal-funds rate forecasts in VAR models used for policy analysis

Author keywords

Futures market; Impulse responses; Overfitting; Shrinkage estimator

Indexed keywords


EID: 0035608799     PISSN: 07350015     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1198/073500101681019972     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (28)

References (25)
  • 1
    • 70449089152 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monetary shocks: What have we learned, and to what end?
    • eds. J. Taylor and M. Woodford, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science
    • Christiano, L. J., Eichenbaum, M., and Evans, C. L. (1999), "Monetary Shocks: What Have We Learned, and to What End?" in Handbook of Macroeconomics (Vol. 1A), eds. J. Taylor and M. Woodford, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, pp. 65-148.
    • (1999) Handbook of Macroeconomics , vol.1 A , pp. 65-148
    • Christiano, L.J.1    Eichenbaum, M.2    Evans, C.L.3
  • 3
    • 84945763545 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions
    • Doan, T., Litterman, R. B., and Sims, C. A. (1984), &Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions,& Econometric Reviews, 3, 1-100.
    • (1984) Econometric Reviews , vol.3 , pp. 1-100
    • Doan, T.1    Litterman, R.B.2    Sims, C.A.3
  • 4
    • 70350091109 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian analysis of simultaneous equation systems
    • eds. Z. Griliches and M. D. Intriligator, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science
    • Dréze, J. H., and Richard, J.-F. (1983), "Bayesian Analysis of Simultaneous Equation Systems," in Handbook of Econometrics, Vol I, eds. Z. Griliches and M. D. Intriligator, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, pp. 517-598.
    • (1983) Handbook of Econometrics , vol.1 , pp. 517-598
    • Dréze, J.H.1    Richard, J.-F.2
  • 5
    • 78449235050 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can VARs describe monetary policy?
    • Basle: Bank of International Settlements
    • Evans, C. L., and Kuttner, K. N. (1998), "Can VARs Describe Monetary Policy?" in Topics in Monetary Policy Modeling, Basle: Bank of International Settlements, pp. 93-109.
    • (1998) Topics in Monetary Policy Modeling , pp. 93-109
    • Evans, C.L.1    Kuttner, K.N.2
  • 6
    • 0000128090 scopus 로고
    • Comparing information in forecasts from econometric models
    • Fair, R. C., and Shiller, R. J. (1990), "Comparing Information in Forecasts From Econometric Models," American Economic Review, 80, 375-389.
    • (1990) American Economic Review , vol.80 , pp. 375-389
    • Fair, R.C.1    Shiller, R.J.2
  • 7
    • 84931405892 scopus 로고
    • The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: An exercise in tentative identification
    • Gordon, D. B., and Leeper, E. M. (1994), "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, 102, 1228-1247.
    • (1994) Journal of Political Economy , vol.102 , pp. 1228-1247
    • Gordon, D.B.1    Leeper, E.M.2
  • 10
    • 0032342633 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tests for forecast encompassing
    • _ (1998), "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, 254-259.
    • (1998) Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , vol.16 , pp. 254-259
  • 11
    • 0011413626 scopus 로고
    • Public ends, private means: Central banking and the profit motive 1823-1832
    • Highfield, R., O'Hara, M., and Wood, J. (1991), "Public Ends, Private Means: Central Banking and the Profit Motive 1823-1832," Journal of Monetary Economics, 28, 287-322.
    • (1991) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.28 , pp. 287-322
    • Highfield, R.1    O'Hara, M.2    Wood, J.3
  • 12
  • 13
    • 84952504842 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting with bayesian vector autoregressions - Five years of experience
    • Litterman, R. B. (1986), "Forecasting With Bayesian Vector Autoregressions - Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 4, 25-38.
    • (1986) Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , vol.4 , pp. 25-38
    • Litterman, R.B.1
  • 17
    • 0347392838 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?
    • Rudebusch, G. D. (1998), "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?" International Economic Review, 39, 907-931.
    • (1998) International Economic Review , vol.39 , pp. 907-931
    • Rudebusch, G.D.1
  • 18
    • 0001688043 scopus 로고
    • Policy analysis with econometric models
    • Sims, C. A. (1982), "Policy Analysis With Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 107-152.
    • (1982) Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , vol.1 , pp. 107-152
    • Sims, C.A.1
  • 19
    • 0347466670 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models
    • Sims, C. A., and Zha, T. A. (1998), "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, 39, 949-968.
    • (1998) International Economic Review , vol.39 , pp. 949-968
    • Sims, C.A.1    Zha, T.A.2
  • 20
    • 0040122114 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models
    • Waggoner, D., and Zha, T. A. (1999), "Conditional Forecasts in Dynamic Multivariate Models," Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, 1-14.
    • (1999) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.81 , pp. 1-14
    • Waggoner, D.1    Zha, T.A.2
  • 21
    • 0039744765 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Working Paper 2000-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
    • _ (2000), "A Gibbs Simulator for Restricted VAR Models," Working Paper 2000-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • (2000) A Gibbs Simulator for Restricted VAR Models
  • 22
    • 0002468390 scopus 로고
    • Macroeconomic forecasting: A survey
    • Wallis, K. (1989), "Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey," Economic Journal, 99, 28-61.
    • (1989) Economic Journal , vol.99 , pp. 28-61
    • Wallis, K.1
  • 23
    • 0030353235 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Asymptotic inference about predictive ability
    • West, K. D. (1996), "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Econometrica, 64, 1067-1084.
    • (1996) Econometrica , vol.64 , pp. 1067-1084
    • West, K.D.1
  • 24
    • 0346362776 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regression-based tests of predictive ability
    • West, K. D., and McCracken, M. W. (1998). "Regression-based Tests of Predictive Ability," International Economic Review, 39, 817-840.
    • (1998) International Economic Review , vol.39 , pp. 817-840
    • West, K.D.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 25
    • 0038992927 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy
    • First Quarter
    • Zha, T. A. (1998), "A Dynamic Multivariate Model for Use in Formulating Policy," Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, First Quarter, 16-29.
    • (1998) Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review , pp. 16-29
    • Zha, T.A.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.