Operational 0-3 h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts: Recent performance and potential enhancements

Atmospheric Research

Volumn 92, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 318-330

  Sokol, Z ^a   Kitzmiller, D ^b   Pesice P ^a   Guan, S ^b  

^a INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (Czech Republic)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Convection; Nowcasting; Precipitation; Prediction; Radar

Indexed keywords

PROBABILITY; RADAR; SPEECH RECOGNITION; THERMAL EFFECTS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CONVECTION; CZECH REPUBLICS; DEVELOPMENT METHODS; DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLES; GRID BOXES; HEAVY RAIN EVENTS; MULTIPLE THRESHOLDS; NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES; NOWCASTING; NUMERICAL PREDICTIONS; OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS; PRECIPITATION; PRECIPITATION DATUM; PREDICTION; PREDICTION EQUATIONS; PREDICTION SYSTEMS; PREDICTOR VARIABLES; PROBABILITY EQUATIONS; QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS; RADAR REFLECTIVITIES; RECENT PERFORMANCE; REGIONAL CLIMATES; REGIONAL VARIATIONS; RELATIVE FREQUENCIES; STATISTICAL RELIABILITIES; STATISTICAL SYSTEMS; TIME OF DAYS; WARM SEASONS; WESTERN UNITED STATES;

PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; NOWCASTING; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PROBABILITY;

EID: 62849088533     PISSN: 01698095     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.01.011     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Antolik M.S. An overview of the National Weather Service's centralized statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts. J. Hydrol. 239 (2000) 306-337
2. Black T.L. The new NMC Eta model: description and forecast examples. Weather Forecast. 9 (1994) 265-278
3. Boudevillain B., Andrieu H., and Chaumerliac N. Evaluation of RadVil, a radar-based very short-term rainfall forecasting model. J. Hydrometeorol. 7 (2006) 178-189
4. Briedenbach J., Seo D.-J., and Fulton R. Stage II and III post processing of NEXRAD precipitation estimates in the modernized Weather Service. Preprints, 14th Int. Conf. on Interactive Information and Processing Systems for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology. Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston (1998) 263-266
5. Bright D.R., and Mullen S.L. Short-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation during the southwest monsoon. Weather Forecast. 17 (2002) 1080-1100
6. Buizza R. Accuracy and potential economic value of categorical and probabilistic forecasts of discrete events. Mon. Weather Rev. 129 (2001) 2329-2345
7. Charba J.P. The LAMP QPF products. Part I: model development. Weather Forecast. 13 (1998) 934-965
8. Charba J.P., and Liang F. Quality control of gridded national radar reflectivity data. Preprints 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston, 6A.5 (2005)
9. Croxton F.E., and Crowden D.J. Applied General Statistics (1955), Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, USA
10. Cummins K.L., Murphy M.J., Bardo E.A., Hiscox W.L., Pyle R.B., and Pifer A.E. A combined TOA/MDF technology upgrade of the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network. J. Geophys. Res. 103 D8 (1998) 9035-9044
11. Dixon M., and Weiner G. TITAN: thunderstorm identification, tracking, analysis, and nowcasting-a radar-based methodology. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol. 10 (1993) 785-797
12. Fulton R.A., Breidenbach J.P., Seo D.-J., Miller D.A., and O'Bannon T. The WSR-88D rainfall algorithm. Weather Forecast. 13 (1998) 377-395
13. Ganguly A.R., and Bras R.L. Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasting using information from radar and numerical weather prediction models. J. Hydrometeorol. 4 (2003) 1168-1180
14. Glahn H.R., and Lowry D.A. The use of model output statistics (MOS) in objective weather forecasting. J. Appl. Meteorol. 11 (1972) 1203-1211
15. Hogg R.V., and Tanis E.A. Probability and Statistical Inference (1977), MacMillan Publishing Company, Inc., New York
16. Hoke J.E., Phillips N.A., DiMego G.J., Tucillo J.J., and Sela J.G. The regional analysis and forecast system of the National Meteorological Center. Weather Forecast. 4 (1989) 323-334
17. Hu M., Xue M., and Brewster K. 3DVAR and cloud analysis with WSR-88D level-II data for the prediction of the Fort Worth, Texas, tornadic thunderstorms. Part I: cloud analysis and its impact. Mon. Weather Rev. 134 (2006) 675-698
18. Johnson J., MacKean P., Witt A., Mitchell E., Stumpf G., Eilts M., and Thomas K. The storm cell identification and tracking algorithm: an enhanced WSR 88D algorithm. Weather Forecast. 13 (1998) 263-276
19. Kitzmiller D.H., Lilly M.A.R., and Vibert S.D. Probabilistic 0-3 hour rainfall forecasts from an extrapolative-statistical technique utilizing radar, satellite, and lightning observations. Preprints 29th Conference on Radar Meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston (1999) 876-879
20. Kitzmiller D.H., Churma E.A., and Filiaggi M.T. The AWIPS 0-1 hour rainfall forecast algorithm. Preprints 15th International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems. Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston (1999) 175-178
21. Kitzmiller D.H., Vibert S.D., and Samplatsky F.G. Short-range forecasts of rainfall amount from an extrapolative-statistical technique utilizing multiple remote sensor observations. Preprints Symposium on Precipitation Extremes, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston (2001) 266-270
22. Kitzmiller D.H., Samplatsky F.G., Mello C., and Dai J. Probabilistic forecasts of severe local storms in the 0-3 hour timeframe from an advective-statistical technique. Preprints 21st Conference on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston (2002) J89-J92
23. Kitzmiller D.H., Samplatsky F.G., and Keller D.L. Production of a national radar reflectivity mosaic and automated radar observations from WSR-88D Radar coded Messages. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS MDL 83, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U. S (2002), Department of Commerce 24 pp. [Available from Meteorological Development Laboratory, W/OST2, 1325 East West Highway, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA.]
24. Klein W. Objective forecasts of surface temperature from one to three days in advance. J. Appl. Meteorol. 5 (1965) 137-147
25. Lin Y., and Mitchell K.E. The NCEP Stage II/IV hourly precipitation analyses: development and applications. Preprints, AMS 19th Conference on Hydrology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston, 1.2 (2005)
26. Maddox R.A., Zhang J., Gourley J.J., and Howard K.W. Weather radar coverage over the contiguous United States. Weather Forecast. 17 (2002) 927-934
27. Marshall J., and Palmer W.M. The distribution of raindrops with size. J. Atmos. Sci. 5 (1948) 165-166
28. Mueller C., Saxen T., Roberts R., Wilson J., Betancourt T., Dettling S., Oien N., and Yee J. NCAR Auto-Nowcast system. Weather Forecast. 18 (2003) 545-561
29. National Weather Service, 1998. NGM-based statistical quantitative precipitation forecast guidance for the contiguous United States and Alaska. NWS Tech. Procedures Bull. 451, National Weather Service, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce. [Available from Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, 1325 East West Hwy., Silver Spring, MD 20910.].
30. Panofsky H.J., and Brier G.E. Some Applications of Statistics to Meteorology (1968), The Pennsylvania State University, University Park
31. Polger P.D. Reply. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 74 (1994) 2175-2176
32. Polger P.D., Goldsmith B.S., Przywarty R.C., and Bocchieri J.R. National Weather Service warning performance based on the WSR-88D. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 74 (1994) 203-214
33. Rogers E., Lin Y., Mitchell K., Wu W.-S., Ferrier B., Gayno G., Pondeca M., Pyle M., Wong V., and Ek M. The NCEP North American Mesoscale Modeling System: Final Eta Model/analysis changes and preliminary experiments using the WRF-NMM. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston, 4B.5 (2005)
34. Saffle R.E., and Elvander R.C. Use of digital radar in automated short range estimates of severe weather probability and radar reflectivity. Preprints Seventh Conference on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Boston (1981) 192-199
35. Scofield R.A., and Kuligowski R.J. Status and outlook of operational satellite precipitation algorithms for extreme-precipitation events. Weather Forecast. 18 (2003) 1037-1051
36. Seed A.W. A dynamic and spatial scaling approach to advection forecasting. J. Appl. Meteorol. 42 (2003) 381-388
37. Seo D.-J. Real-time estimation of rainfall fields using radar rainfall and rain gage data. J. Hydrol. 208 (1998) 37-52
38. Seo D.-J., and Breidenbach J.P. Real-time correction of spatially nonuniform bias in radar rainfall data using rain gauges measurements. J. Hydrometeorol. 3 (2002) 93-111
39. Skamarock W.C., Klemp J.B., Dudhia J., Gill D.O., Barker D.M., Wang W., and Powers J.G. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2 (2005). http://www.wrf-model.org/wrfadmin/docs/arw_v2.pdf [Available from http://www.wrf-model.org/wrfadmin/docs/arw_v2.pdf]
40. Sokol Z., Pesice P., Kitzmiller D., and Guan G. Comparison of several approaches to probabilistic forecasting of locally-heavy rainfall in the 0-3 hour timeframe. Preprints World Weather Research Program on Nowcasting and Very Short-Range Forecasting, Toulouse, 2.33 (2005)
41. Wallis W. The correlation ratio for ranked data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 34 (1939) 533-538. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0162-1459%28193909%2934%3A207%3C533%3ATCRFRD%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Q (Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0162-1459%28193909%2934%3A207%3C533%3ATCRFRD%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Q)
42. Xiao Q., Kuo Y.H., Sun J., Lee W.C., Barker D.M., and Lim E. An approach of radar reflectivity data assimilation and its assessment with the inland QPF of Typhoon Rusa (2002) at landfall. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 46 (2007) 14-22
43. Zhu Y., Toth Z., Wobus R., Richardson D., and Mylne K. The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83 (2002) 73-83