Foreign affairs and the 2008 election

Forum

Volumn 6, Issue 4, 2009, Pages

  Saldin, Robert P ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA   (United States)

Author keywords

Election; Foreign policy; Parties; War

Indexed keywords

EID: 62649090553     PISSN: None     EISSN: 15408884     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2202/1540-8884.1273     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. See, for example: Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes, The American Voter (New York: Wiley, 1960).
2. Larry M. Bartels, "Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996," American Journal of Political Science (2000) 44: 35-50.
3. Donald Green, Bradley Palmquist, and Eric Schickler, Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002).
4. See, for instance: Bernard R. Berelson, Paul F. Lazarsfeld, and William N. McPhee, Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1954).
5. Barbara Norrander, "The Evolution of the Gender Gap," Public Opinion Quarterly (1990) 54: 566-576.
6. Geoffrey C. Layman, "Religion and Political Behavior in the United States: The Impact of Beliefs, Affiliations, and Commitment from 1980 to 1994," Public Opinion Quarterly (1997) 61: 288-316.
7. Herbert F. Weisberg, "The Demographics of a New Voting Gap: Marital Differences in American Voting," Public Opinion Quarterly (1987) 51: 335-343.
8. th ed. (Boston: Longman, 1997).
9. David R. Mayhew, "Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Presidential Elections: The Historical Record," Political Science Quarterly 123:2 (2008), 201-28.
10. For example: Morris P. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981).
11. Richard Nadeau and Michael Lewis-Beck, "National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Journal of Politics (2001) 63: 159-181.
12. For instance: Alan I. Abramowitz, "It's Abortion, Stupid: Policy Voting in the 1992 Presidential Election," Journal of Politics (1995) 57: 176-186.
13. Alvarez and Nagler, "Economics, Entitlements, and Social Issues: Voter Choice in the 1996 Presidential Election," American Journal of Political Science (1998) 42: 1349-1363. Miller and J. Merrill Shanks, The New American Voter (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1996).
14. Richard G. Niemi and Herbert F. Weisberg, "What Determines the Vote," Controversies in Voting Behavior, Niemi and Weisberg, eds. (Washington: CQ Press, 2001), 185.
15. Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting Presidential Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1983).
16. C.W. Ostrom, Jr. and D.M. Simon, "Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity," American Political Science Review (1985) 79: 334-358.
17. Stephen Hess and Michael Nelson, "Foreign Policy: Dominance and Decisiveness in Presidential Elections," The Elections of 1984, Nelson, ed. (Washington: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1985).
18. Miller and Shanks, "Policy Directions and Presidential Leadership: Alternative Interpretations of the 1980 Presidential Elections," British Journal of Political Science 12 (1982): 266-356.
19. Norman H. Nie, Sydney Verba, and John R. Petrocik, The Changing American Voter (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1976).
20. Benjamin I. Page and Robert Y. Shapiro, "Effects of Public Opinion on Policy," American Political Science Review 77 (1983): 175-90.
21. Gerald M. Pomper, "From Confusion to Clarity: Issues and American Voters, 1956-1968," American Political Science Review 66 (1972): 415-28.
22. Campbell, et.al, 49-50, 75, 135, and 546.
23. A small group of dissenters have challenged these views. The best overall counterargument is: John H. Aldrich, John L. Sullivan, and Eugene Borgida, "Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting: Do Presidential Candidates 'Waltz Before a Blind Audience?,'" American Political Science Review 83:1 (1989): 123-141.
24. For similar findings about the 2000 presidential election, see: Sowmya Anand and Jon A. Krosnick, "The Impact of Attitudes toward Foreign Policy Goals on Public Preferences among Presidential Candidates: A Study of Issue Publics and the Attentive Public in the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election," Presidential Studies Quarterly 33:1 (2003): 31-71.
25. For 1980 and 1984: Miroslav Nincic and Barbara Hinckley, "Foreign Policy and the Evaluation of Presidential Candidates," Journal of Conflict Resolution 35:2 (1991): 333-355.
26. James W. Ceaser and Andrew E. Busch, Red Over Blue: The 2004 Elections and American Politics (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2005), 14.
27. Robert P. Saldin, War and American Political Development: Parties, State Building, and Democratic Rights Policy, Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Politics, University of Virginia, 2008.
28. Mayhew, "Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Presidential Elections: The Historical Record," 226-8.
29. Saldin. Many argue that Humphrey might have won in 1968 if he had forcefully broken with Johnson's Vietnam policy. See, for instance: Lee Sigelman and Emmett Buell, Attack Politics: Negativity in Presidential Campaigns Since 1960 (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 1968), 97-101.
30. Mayhew, "Events as Causes: The Case of American Politics," Political Contingency: Studying the Unexpected, the Accidental, and the Unforeseen, Ian Shapiro and Sonu Bedi, eds. (New York: New York University Press, 2007), 100, 120.
31. George W. Bush, "President Bush and Prime Minister Allawi Press Conference," The White House, 23 Sept. 2004, http://www.whitehouse. gov/news/releases/2004/09/20040923-8.html.
32. Richard Cheney, "Remarks by the Vice President," The White House 23 Dec. 2003, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/12/ 20031223-1.html.
33. The other was 1932. In 1998 President Clinton's Democrats gained five House seats but there was no change in the Senate's partisan composition.
34. "Issues," CNN, http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/special/ issues/.
35. Ceaser and Daniel DiSalvo, "Midterm Elections, Partisan Context, and Political Leadership: The 2006 Elections and Party Alignment," The Forum 4:3 (2006), http://www.bepress.com/forum/vo14/iss3/art11, 8.
36. John Kerry, "Acceptance Speech at the Democratic National Convention," Washington Post, 29 July 2004, http://www. washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25678-2004Jul29.html.
37. David M. Halbfinger and David F. Sanger, "Bush and Kerry Clash Over Iraq and a Timetable," New York Times, 7 Sept. 2004, http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/07/politics/campaign/07campaign.html.
38. Ceaser and Busch, 7-8.
39. Ceaser and Busch, 15. See also: Paul Freedman, "The Gay Marriage Myth: Terrorism, Not Values, Drove Bush's Re-election," Slate 5 Nov. 2004, http://www.slate.com/id/2109275/.
40. For an alternative view, see: Garry Wills, "The Day the Enlightenment Went Out," New York Times, 4 Nov. 2004, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res= 9C0CE2DA173CF937A35752C1A9629C8B63.
41. See, for instance: Chuck Todd, Meet the Press 14 Sept. 2008, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26702299/.
42. John Edwards, "The Right Way in Iraq," Washington Post 13 Nov. 2005, B7.
43. Alexander Bolton, "Edwards Sees Apologies as Effective Strategy but Experts say Tactic Risky," The Hill 6 Dec. 2007, http://thehill.com/index2.php?option=com-content&do-pdf=1&id=70138.
44. Joseph Biden and Leslie H. Gelb, "Unity Through Autonomy in Iraq," New York Times 1 May 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/01/ opinion/01biden.html.
45. "Obama: Early Opposition to War Shows Better Judgment," CNN 2 Oct. 2007, http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/02/obama.iraq/index. html.
46. "Exit Polls: Iowa - Democrats," MSNBC, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225980/.
47. Joshua Green, "The Front-Runner's Fall," The Atlantic (Sept. 2008), http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200809/hillary-clinton-campaign.
48. Robert Novak, "In Iraq and Under the Spotlight," Washington Post 21 July 2008, A15.
49. Jonathan Martin, "Win the Battle, Lose the Election?," Politico 10 April 2007, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0407/3473. html.
50. See, for instance: Fred Barnes, "A McCain Surge? Defending the Iraq War is his Best Shot," The Weekly Standard 23 April 2007, http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/013/521wqdng.asp.
51. "McCain's Surge: Why He's Making a Primary Comeback," Wall Street Journal (editorial) 18 Dec. 2007, http://www.opinionjournal.com/ editorial/feature.html?id=110011007.
52. Rich Lowry, "McCain Surge," National Review 4 Jan. 2008, http://article.nationalreview.com/?q= MTkyZTQ5NmNlMDA2MTA1ZWMwNGRlNjllZDNkN2JkNWY=.
53. Michael Gerson, "Casualty of the Surge," Washington Post 24 Oct. 2008, A19.
54. Sigelman and Paul J. Wahlbeck, "The 'Veepstakes': Strategic Choice in Presidential Running Mate Selection," American Political Science Review 91:4 (1997), 855-64.
55. For example: Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny, "Obama's Pick Adds Foreign Expertise to Ticket," New York Times, 23 Aug. 2008, A1.
56. Michael Kranish, "Foreign Policy got Biden the VP Nod," The Boston Globe, 24 Aug. 2008, http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/ 08/24/foreign-policy-got-biden-the-vp-nod/?page=full.
57. "RCP Poll Average: General Election: McCain vs. Obama," Real Clear Politics, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/ general-election-mccain-vs-obama-225.html.
58. "Exit Polls: President, National Exit Poll," CNN http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p6.
59. "The First McCain-Obama Presidential Debate: Debate Transcript," Commission on Presidential Debates 26 Sept. 2008, http://www.debates.org/pages/trans2008a.html.
60. "Exit Polls: President, National Exit Poll," CNN, http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p6.