Experimental Dynamical Forecast of an MJO Event Observed during TOGA-COARE Period

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Volumn 1, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 24-28

  Fu, Xiouhua ^a   Wang, Bin ^a   Qing, Bao ^b   Liu, Ping ^a   Yang, Bo ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^b INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

Author keywords

air sea coupling; cumulus parameterization; dynamic forecast; MJO; TOGA COARE

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; CUMULUS; EXPERIMENT; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; PARAMETERIZATION; TOGA-COARE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

INDIAN OCEAN; INDIAN OCEAN (WEST);

EID: 61349099083     PISSN: 16742834     EISSN: 23766123     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/16742834.2008.11446759     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Boyle, J. S., D. Williamson, R. Cederwall, et al., 2005: Diagnosis of Community Atmospheric Model 2 (CAM2) in numerical weather forecast configuration at atmospheric radiation measurement sites, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D15515, doi: 10.1029/2004JD005042.
2. Chen, B. D., and M. Yanai, 2000: Comparison of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) during the TOGA COARE TOP with a 15-year climatology, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 2139–2149.
3. Donald, A., H. Meinke, B. Power, et al., 2006: Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L09704, doi: 10.1029/2005GL025155.
4. Dong, M., C. Zhang, and J.-H. He, 2006: A simulation study of the influence of external forcing on the Tropical intraseasonal oscillation, Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. (in Chinese), 30,413–422.
5. Fu, X., and B. Wang, 2001: A coupled modeling study of the annual cycle of Pacific cold tongue. Part I: Simulation and sensitivity experiments, J. Climate, 14(5), 765–779.
6. Fu, X., B. Wang, T. Li, et al., 2003: Coupling between northward-propagating, intraseasonal oscillations and sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean, J. Atmos. Sci., 60,1733–1753.
7. Fu, X., and B. Wang, 2004: The boreal-summer intraseasonal oscillations simulated in a hybrid coupled atmosphere-ocean model, Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2628–2649.
8. Fu, X., B. Wang, and L. Tao, 2006: Satellite data reveal the 3-D moisture structure of tropical intraseasonal oscillation and its coupling with underlying ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03705, doi: 10.1029/2005GL025074.
9. Fu, X., B. Wang, D. E. Waliser, et al., 2007: Impact of atmosphere-ocean coupling on the predictability of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 157–174.
10. Hsu, and Huang-Hsiung, 1996: Global view of the intraseasonal oscillation during Northern Winter, J. Climate, 9(10), 2386–2406.
11. Jones, C., D. E. Waliser, J.-K. E. Schemm, et al., 2000: Prediction skill of the Madden and Julian Oscillation in dynamical extended range forecasts, Climate Dyn., 16, 273–289.
12. Kemball-Cook, S., B. Wang, and X. Fu, 2002: Simulation of the ISO in the ECHAM4 model: The impact of coupling with an ocean model, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1433–1453.
13. Kim, H.-M., I.-S. Kang, B. Wang, et al., 2007: Interannual variations of the boreal summer intraseasonal variability predicted by ten atmosphere-ocean coupled models, Climate Dyn., 30, 485— 496, doi: 10.1007/500382-007-0292-3.
14. Krishnamurti, T. N., D. K. Oosterhof, and A. V. Mehta, 1988: Air-sea interaction on the time scale of 30 to 50 days, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1304–1322.
15. Krishnamurti, T. N., A. Chakraborty, R. Krishnamurti, et al., 2007: Passage of intraseasonal waves in the subsurface oceans, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14712, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030496.
16. Lin, X., and R. H. Johnson, 1996: Heating, moistening, and rainfall over the western Pacific warm pool during TOGA COARE, J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3367–3383.
17. Lin, J. L., N. K. George, E. M. Brian, et al., 2006: Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate model, Part I: Convective signals, J. Climate, 19, 2665–2690.
18. Liu, P., B. Wang, K. R. Sperber, et al., 2005: MJO in the NCAR CAM2 with the Tiedke convective scheme, J. Climate, 18(15), 3007–3020.
19. Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1972: Description of global-scale circulation cells in the Tropics with a 40–50 day period, J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1109–1123.
20. Maloney, E. D., and D. L. Hartmann, 2001: The sensitivity of intraseasonal variability in the NCAR CCM3 to changes in convective parameterization, J. Climate, 14(4), 2015–2034.
21. Roeckner, E., K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, et al., 1996: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate, Max-Plank-Institute for Meteorology, Report 218, 9Opp.
22. Seo, K.-H., J.-K. Schemm, and C. Jones, 2005: Forecast skill of the Tropical intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP GFS dynamical extended range forecasts, Climate Dyn., 25(2-3), 265–284.
23. Slingo, J. M., K. R. Sperber, J. S. Boyle, et al., 1996: Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmospheric general circulation models: Results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject, Climate Dyn., 12, 325–357.
24. Sperber, K. R., and H. Annamalai, 2008: Coupled model simulations of boreal summer intraseasonal (30–50 day) variability, Part I: Systematic errors and caution on use of metrics, Climate Dyn., accepted and in press.
25. Tian, B., D. E. Waliser, E. J. Fetzer, et al., 2006: Vertical moist thermodynamic structure and spatial-temporal evolution of the MJO in AIRS observations, J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2462–2485.
26. Tokioka, T., K. Yamazaki, A. Kitoh, et al., 1988: The equatorial 30–60 day oscillation and the Arakawa-Schubert penetrative cumulus parameterization, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 66, 883–901.
27. Vinzileos, A., 2007: Subseasonal predictions with the NCEP CFS: Forecast skill and prediction barriers, Florida: NOAA's 32nd Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, http://www.cpc. ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/proceedings/cdw32_proceedin gs/Augustin Vintzileos.ppt.
28. Vitart, F., S. Woolnough, M. A. Balmaseda, et al., 2007: Monthly forecast of the Madden-Julian Oscillation using a coupled GCM, Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2700–2715.
29. Waliser, D. E., K. M. Lau, and J. J. Kim, 1999: The influence of coupled sea surface temperatures on the Madden-Julian oscillation: A model perturbation experiment, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 333–358.
30. Wang, B., 1988: Dynamics of tropical low frequency waves: An analysis of moist Kelvin waves, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2051–2065.
31. Wang, B., and H. Rui, 1990: Dynamics of coupled moist Kelvin-Rossby waves on an equatorial beta-plane, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 397–413.
32. Wang, B., T. Li, and P. Chang, 1995: An intermediate model of the tropical Pacific Ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 1599–1616.
33. Wang, W., and M. E. Schlesinger, 1999: The dependence on convection parameterization of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation simulated by the UIUC 11-layer atmospheric GCM, J. Climate, 12(5), 1423–1457.
34. WCRP COPES, 2005: The World Climate Research Programme Strategic Framework 2005–2015: Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES), WCRP-123, WMO/TD-No. 1291.
35. Webster, P. J., and R. Lukas, 1992: TOGA-COARE: The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 1377–1416.
36. Wheeler, M. C., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction, Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917–1932.
37. Woolnough, S. J., F. Vitart, and M. A. Balmaseda, 2007: The role of the ocean in the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Implications for the MJO prediction, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 117–128.
38. Yang, B., X. H. Fu, and B. Wang, 2008: Atmosphere-ocean conditions jointly guide convection of the boreal-summer intraseasonal oscillation: Satellite observations, J. Geophys. Res., accepted and in press.
39. Zhang, C., M. Dong, S. Gualdi, et al., 2006: Simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in four pairs of coupled and uncoupled global models, Climate Dyn., 27, 573–592, doi: 10.1007/S0038200601482.