Reduced overestimation in forecasting telecommuting as a travel demand management policy

Transportation Research Record

Volumn , Issue 2082, 2008, Pages 8-16

  Tal, Gil ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

% REDUCTIONS; FORECASTING METHODS; FORECASTING TOOLS; MANAGEMENT POLICY; ON POTENTIALS; PERFORMANCE; POLICY MAKERS; PREDICTION TOOLS; TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR; TRAVEL DEMAND MANAGEMENT;

FORECASTING;

EID: 61349086103     PISSN: 03611981     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3141/2082-02     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Meyer, M. D. Demand Management as an Element of Transportation Policy: Using Carrots and Sticks to Influence Travel Behavior. Transportation Research, Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 33, No. 7-8, 1999, pp. 575-599.
2. Flyvbjerg, B., M. S. Holm, and S. Buhl. Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects - Error or Lie? Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 68, No. 3, 2002, pp. 279-295.
3. Bent, F., N. Bruzelius, and. W. Rothengatter. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2003.
4. Mackett, R. L., and M. Edwards. The Impact of New Urban Public Transport, Systems: Will the Expectations Be Met? Transportation Research, Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 32, No. 4, 1998, pp. 231-245.
5. Pickrell, D. H. Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost. U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C., 1990.
6. Wachs, M. Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy. Business and Professional Ethics Journal, Vol. 9, No. 1-2, 1990, pp. 141-157.
7. Bae, C. H. C. Air-Quality and Travel Behavior - Untying the Knot. Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1, 1993, pp. 65-74.
8. Giuliano, G. Transportation Demand Management: Promise or Panacea? Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 58, No. 9, 1992, p. 327.
9. Marshall, S., and D. Banister, Travel Reduction Strategies: Intentions and Outcomes. Transportation Research, Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 34, No. 5, 2000, pp. 321-338.
10. Rodier, C. J., J. E. Abraham, and R. A. Johnston. Anatomy of Induced Travel Using Integrated Land Use and Transportation Model in Sacramento Region. Presented at 80th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2001.
11. Richmond, J. E. D. Introducing Philosophical Theories to Urban-Transportation Planning or Why All Planners Should Practice Bursting Bubbles. Systems Research, Vol. 7, No. 1, 1990, pp. 47-56.
12. Niles, J. S., and D. Nelson. Identifying Uncertainties in Forecasts of Travel Demand. www.bettertransport.info/NilesNelson2001.pdf.
13. Mierzejewski, E. A. An Assessment of Uncertainty and Bias: Recommended Modifications to the Urban Transportation Planning Process. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, 1996.
14. Wachs, M. The Political Context of Transportation Policy. In The Geography of Urban Transportation (S. Hanson, ed.), Guilford, New York, 1995, pp. 269-286.
15. Dror, Y. Uncertainty: Coping with It and with Political Feasibility. In Handbook of Systems Analysis: Craft Issues and Procedural Choices (H. J. Miser and E. S. Quade, eds.), 1988, John Wiley & Sons., Inc., New York, pp. 247-281.
16. Salomon, I., and P. L. Mokhtarian. Coping with Congestion: Understanding the Gap Between Policy Assumptions and Behavior. Transportation Research, Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1997, pp. 107-123.
17. Mokhtarian, P. L., and I. Salomon. Modeling the Desire to Telecommute: The Importance of Attitudinal Factors in Behavioral Models. Transportation Research, Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 31, No. 1, 1997, pp. 35-50.
18. National Academy of Engineering. Telecommunications for Enhanced Metropolitan Function and Form: Report to the Director of Telecommunications Management. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1969.
19. Nilles, J. M., F. R. Carlson, P. Gray, and Q. Hanneman. Telecommuting - Alternative to Urban-Transportation Congestion. IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1976, pp. 77-84.
20. Giuliano, G. Transportation Demand Management - Promise or Panacea. Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 58, No. 3, 1992, pp. 327-335.
21. Gordon, G. Clinton Calls for 'Family .Friendly' Work Arrangements. Telecommuting Review, Vol. 13, No. 18, 1996, p. 16.
22. Biegen, J. Teleworking Explained. Information Technology and Libraries, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1994, pp. 156-157.
23. Baruch, Y. Teleworking: Benefits and Pitfalls as Perceived by Professionals and Managers. New Technology Work and Employment, Vol. 15, No. 1, 2000, pp. 34-49.
24. Handy, S. L., and P. L. Mokhtarian, Planning for Telecommuting- Measurement and Policy Issues. Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 61, No. 1, 1995, pp. 99-111.
25. Salomon, I. Technological Change and Social Forecasting: The Case of Telecommuting as a Travel Substitute. Transportation Research, Part C: Emerging Technologies, Vol. 6, No. 1-2, 1998, pp. 17-45.
26. Mokhtarian, P. L. A. Synthetic Approach to Estimating the Impacts of Telecommuting on Travel. Urban Studies, Vol. 35, No. 2, 1998, p. 215.
27. Harkness, R. C., and A. E. Moon. Technology Assessment of Telecommunications Transportation Interactions. Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, Calif., 1977.
28. Tyler, M., M. Elton, and A. J. Cook. The Contribution of Telecommunications to the Conservation of Energy Resources. Office of Telecommunications, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C., 1977.
29. Obermann, R. The Impact of Telecommunications on Transportation Demand. Through the Year 2000. National Transportation Policy Study Commission, Washington, D.C., 1978.
30. JALA Associates, Inc. Telecommunications and Energy: The Energy Conservation Implications for California of Telecommunications Substitutes for Transportation. Final Report. California Energy Commission, Sacramento, Dec. 1983.
31. Handy, S. L., and P. L. Mokhtarian. Technical Memo 3: Base Case Estimates and Forecasts of Telecommuting in California. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, 1993.
32. Choo, S., P. L. Mokhtarian, and I. Salomon. Does Telecommuting Reduce Vehicle-Miles Traveled? An Aggregate Time Series Analysis for the U.S. Transportation, Vol. 32, No. 1, 2005, pp. 37-64.
33. Harkness, R. C. Telecommunications Substitutes for Travel: A. Preliminary Assessment of Their Potential for Reducing Urban Transportation Costs by Altering Office. Location Pattern. PhD dissertation. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, 1973.
34. Jones, D. W., Jr. Must We Travel: The Potential of Communications as a Substitute for Urban Travel. Report PB-227-185/6. Institute for Communications Research, Stanford University, Palo Alto, Calif., 1973.
35. Albertson, L. A. Telecommunications as a Travel Substitute: Some Psychological, Organizational, and Social Aspects. Jourtuil of Communication, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1977, pp. 32-43.