Scenarios and counterfactuals as modal narratives

Futures

Volumn 41, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 87-95

  Booth, Charles ^a   Rowlinson, Michael ^b   Clark, Peter ^b   Delahaye, Agnes ^b   Procter, Stephen ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST OF ENGLAND   (United Kingdom)

^b QUEEN MARY UNIVERSITY OF LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^c NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FUTURE PROSPECT; METHODOLOGY; PHILOSOPHY; THEORETICAL STUDY;

EID: 60249089982     PISSN: 00163287     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2008.07.037     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Beall J.C., and van Fraassen B.C. Possibilities and Paradox: An Introduction to Modal and Many-Valued Logic (2003), Oxford University Press, Oxford
2. Fuller S. A tale of two cultures and other higher superstitions. History of the Human Sciences 8 (1995) 115-125
3. Clark P., Booth C., Rowlinson M., Procter S., and Delahaye A. Project hindsight: exploring necessity and possibility in cycles of structuration and co-evolution. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management 19 (2007) 83-97
4. Booth C. Does history matter in strategy? The possibilities and problems of counterfactual analysis. Management Decision 41 (2003) 96-104
5. Tetlock P.E., and Belkin A. Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics: logical, methodological and psychological perspectives. In: Tetlock P.E., and Belkin A. (Eds). Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (1996), Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ 3-38
6. Clarke I.F. The Pattern of Expectation 1644-2001 (1979), Jonathan Cape, London
7. Chamberlain G.B. Afterword: allohistory in science fiction. In: Waugh C.G., and Greenberg M.H. (Eds). Alternative Histories: Eleven Stories of the World as it Might Have Been (1986), Garland, New York 281-300
8. Stableford B. Alternative worlds. In: Clute J., and Nicholls P. (Eds). Encyclopedia of Science Fiction (1992), Orbit, London 23-25
9. Staley D.J. A history of the future. History and Theory 41 (2002) 72-89 (Theme Issue 41: Unconventional History)
10. Weber S. Counterfactuals, past and future. In: Tetlock P.E., and Belkin A. (Eds). Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (1996), Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ 268-288
11. Divers J. Possible Worlds (2002), Routledge, London
12. Lebow R.N. What's so different about a counterfactual?. World Politics 52 (2000) 550-585
13. Bulhof J. What if? Modality and history. History and Theory 38 (1999) 145-168
14. Cowan R., and Foray D. Evolutionary economics and the counterfactual threat: on the nature and role of counterfactual history as an empirical tool in economics. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 12 (2002) 539-562
15. Lewis D.K. Counterfactuals (1973), Blackwell, Oxford
16. In: Roese N.J., and Olson J.M. (Eds). What Might Have Been? The Social Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking (1995), Lawrence Erlbaum, Mahwah NJ
17. Roese N.J. Counterfactual thinking. Psychological Bulletin 121 (1997) 133-148
18. Barrera J.C.B. On history considered as epic poetry. History and Theory 44 (2005) 182-194
19. Polkinghorne D.E. Narrative Knowing and the Human Sciences, State (1988), University of New York Press, Albany, NY
20. Elster J. Logic and Society: Contradictions and Possible Worlds (1978), Wiley, London
21. In: Allén S. (Ed). Possible Worlds in Humanities, Arts and Sciences (1989), Walter de Gruyter, Berlin
22. Kripke S. Naming and Necessity (1980), Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA
23. D.K. Lewis, Counterfactual dependence and time's arrow, Noûs 13 (1979) 455-476 [Reprinted in his Philosophical Papers II, Oxford University Press, 1986, pp. 32-52].
24. Lewis D.K. On the Plurality of Worlds (1986), Blackwell, Oxford
25. Ronen R. Possible Worlds in Literary Theory (1994), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
26. Doležel L. Heterocosmica: Fiction and Possible Worlds (1998), The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD
27. Doležel L. Possible worlds of fiction and history. New Literary History 29 (1998) 785-809
28. Sylvan D., and Majeski S. A methodology for the study of historical counterfactuals. International Studies Quarterly 42 (1998) 79-108
29. Climo T.A., and Howells G.A. Possible worlds in historical explanation. History and Theory 15 (1976) 1-20
30. J. O'Grady, David Lewis, Princeton philosopher who formulated ground-breaking theories on everything from language to identity to alternative worlds, The Guardian, 23 October 2001, p. 22.
31. Girle R. Possible Worlds (2003), McGill-Queens University Press, Montreal
32. Everett H. Relative state formulation of quantum mechanics. Review of Modern Physics 29 (1957) 454-462
33. In: DeWitt B., and Graham N. (Eds). The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics (1973), Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ
34. Bell J.S. Six possible worlds of quantum mechanics. In: Allén S. (Ed). Possible Worlds in Humanities, Arts and Sciences (1989), Walter de Gruyter, Berlin 359-373
35. In: Cowley R. (Ed). What If?™ Military Historians Imagine What Might Have Been (1999), Penguin Putnam, New York
36. Ferguson N. Virtual history: Towards a 'chaotic' theory of the past. In: Ferguson N. (Ed). Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals (1997), Macmillan, London 1-90
37. Fogel R. Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Economic History (1964), Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD
38. Carr E.H. What is History? (1990), Macmillan, London
39. In: Tetlock P.E., and Belkin A. (Eds). Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (1996), Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ
40. De Mey T., and Weber E. Explanation and thought experiments in history. History and Theory 42 (2003) 28-38
41. McCloy R., and Byrne R.M.J. Semifactual 'even if' thinking. Thinking and Reasoning 8 (2002) 41-67
42. Dortmans P.J., and Eiffe E. An examination of future scenarios using historical analogy. Futures 36 (2004) 1049-1062
43. Inayatullah S. Macrohistory and futures studies. Futures 30 (1998) 381-394
44. Kaivo-oja J.Y., Katko T.S., and Seppälä O.T. Seeking convergence between history and futures research. Futures 36 (2004) 527-547
45. List D. Multiple pasts, converging presents, and alternative futures. Futures 36 (2004) 23-43
46. Atherton A. A future for small business? Prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning. Futures 37 (2003) 777-794
47. Krishna S. Oppressive pasts and desired futures: re-imagining India. Futures 24 (1992) 858-866
48. van Notten P.W.F., Rotmans J., van Asselt M.B.A., and Rothman D.S. An updated scenario typology. Futures 35 (2003) 423-443
49. Ayres R.U. On forecasting discontinuities. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65 (2000) 81-97
50. MacKay R.B., and McKiernan P. The role of hindsight in foresight: refining strategic reasoning. Futures 36 (2004) 161-179
51. MacKay R.B., and McKiernan P. Exploring strategy context with foresight. European Management Review 1 (2004) 69-77
52. van der Heijden K. Scenarios and forecasting: two perspectives. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65 (2000) 31-36
53. Chermack T.J., and van der Merwe L. The role of constructivist learning in scenario planning. Futures 35 (2003) 445-460
54. K. Hellekson, Refiguring Historical Time: The Alternate History, unpublished Ph.D. thesis, University of Kansas, Lawrence, 1998.
55. E.V. McKnight, Alternative History: The Development of a Literary Genre, unpublished Ph.D. thesis, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1994.
56. W.J. Collins, Paths Not Taken: The Development, Structure, and Aesthetics of the Alternative History, unpublished Ph.D. thesis, University of California, Davis, 1990.
57. A.B. Nedelkovich. British and American Science Fiction Novel 1950-1980 with the Theme of Alternative History (an Axiological Approach), unpublished Ph.D. thesis, University of Belgrade, 1994. English translation, 1999, online at: http://www.geocities.com/CapeCanaveral/Launchpad/8396/dissertation-in-English-by-ABN-on-alt-hist-SF-novels.zip. (accessed 1 March 2005).
58. R.B. Schmunk, Uchronia: The Alternative History List, 1997, online at http://www.uchronia.net (accessed 6 January 2005).
59. Sobel R. For Want of a Nail: If Burgoyne had won at Saratoga (1997), Greenhill, London
60. Suvin D. Victorian science fiction, 1971-85: the rise of the alternative history sub-genre. Science-Fiction Studies 10 (1983) 148-169
61. Hellekson K. Towards a taxonomy of the alternate history genre. Extrapolation 41 (2000) 248-256
62. Duncan A. Alternate history. In: James E., and Mendlesohn F. (Eds). The Cambridge Companion to Science Fiction (2003), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 209-218
63. Rosenfeld G. Why do we ask 'What If?': Reflections on the function of alternate history. History and Theory 41 (2002) 90-103 (Theme Issue 41: Unconventional History)
64. Shippey T.A. Alternate historians: Newt, Kingers, Harry, and me. Journal of the Fantastic in the Arts 8 (1997) 15-33
65. Hellekson K. The Alternate History: Refiguring Historical Time (2001), The Kent State University Press, Kent, OH
66. Turtledove H. Introduction. In: Kantor M. (Ed). If the South had Won the Civil War (2001), Forge, New York 7-8
67. Suvin D. Metamorphoses of Science Fiction: On the Poetics and History of a Literary Genre (1979), Yale University Press, London
68. Suvin D. Victorian Science Fiction in the UK: The Discourses of Knowledge and of Power (1983), G.K. Hall & Co., Boston, MA
69. In: Parrinder P. (Ed). Learning from Other Worlds: Estrangement, Cognition and the Politics of Science Fiction and Utopia (2000), Duke University Press, Durham, NC
70. Shippey T.A. Kingsley Amis's science fiction and the problems of genre. In: Chapman E.L., and Yoke C.B. (Eds). Classic and Iconoclastic Alternate History Science Fiction (2003), The Edwin Mellen Press, Lewiston, NY 189-208