A future for small business? Prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning

Futures

Volumn 37, Issue 8, 2005, Pages 777-794

  Atherton, Andrew ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LINCOLN   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BUSINESS; FUTURE PROSPECT;

EID: 20444475809     PISSN: 00163287     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.002     Document Type: Article

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19. Each scenario, therefore, is based on the following combination: Future Scenario=f1(small business or large business)+f2(integrated or less connected)+f3(embracing or defensive). The result is the following permutations of the three drivers of future economic structure: (1) small business-more integrated-embracing; (2) small business-more integrated-defensive; (3) small business-less connected-embracing; (4) small business-less connected-defensive; (5) large business-more integrated-embracing; (6) large business-more integrated-defensive; (7) large business-less connected-embracing; (8) large business-less connected-defensive.
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57. The relative distribution between small and large is based on the actual percentage of businesses with fewer than 500 employees, as per the OECD data. Levels of integration were based on a qualitative assessment of 'trade balance' and foreign direct investment figures from the World Bank 2002 report. Countries were rated on a sliding scale, with countries such as Belgium that had positive high figures in both figures being rated as very integrated and countries with low and negative trade balances and FDI figures as less integrated. The graph is indicative, in any case, as it is based on two calculations that serve as very general proxies of actual levels of business connectivity and economic integration.
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