How do UK climate scenarios compare with recent observations?

Atmospheric Science Letters

Volumn 9, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 189-195

  Dessai, Suraje ^a,b   Hulme, Mike ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

CET; Climate scenarios; EWP; Observations; UK; Verification

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; COMPARATIVE STUDY; OBSERVATIONAL METHOD; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEASONAL VARIATION; SUMMER; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EURASIA; EUROPE; UNITED KINGDOM; WESTERN EUROPE;

EID: 60149103146     PISSN: None     EISSN: 1530261X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/asl.197     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Airey M, Hulme M. 1995. Evaluating climate model simulations of precipitation: Methods, problems and performance. Progress in Physical Geography 19: 427-448.
2. Alexander LV, Jones PD. 2001. Updated precipitation series for the U.K. and discussion of recent extremes. Atmospheric Science Letters 1: 142-150.
3. CCIRG. 1991. The Potential Effects of Climate Change in the United Kingdom. Department of the Environment: London.
4. CCIRG. 1996. Review of the Potential Effects of Climate Change in the United Kingdom. Department of the Environment: London.
5. Croxton PJ, Huber K, Collinson N, Sparks TH. 2006. How well do the central England temperature and the England and Wales precipitation series represent the climate of the UK? International Journal of Climatology 26: 2287-2292.
6. Dessai S, Hulme M. 2007. Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the East of England. Global Environmental Change 17: 59-72.
7. Dessai S, Hulme M, Lempert R, Pielke R Jr. 2009. Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation? In Adaptation to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values and Governance, Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, O'Brien K (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, (in press).
8. Ferranti L, Viterbo P. 2006. The European Summer of 2003: Sensitivity to soil water initial conditions. Journal of Climate 19: 3659-3680.
9. Fischer EM, Seneviratne SI, Luthi D, Schar C. 2007. Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling to recent European summer heat waves. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L06707.
10. Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, Lo K, Lea DW, Medina-Elizade M. 2006. Global temperature change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103: 14288-14293.
11. Hulme M, Brown O. 1998. Portraying climate scenario uncertainties in relation to tolerable regional climate change. Climate Research 10: 1-14.
12. Hulme M, Barrow EM, Arnell NW, Harrison PA, Johns TC, Downing TE. 1999. Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability. Nature 397: 688-691.
13. Hulme M, Dessai S. 2008a. Negotiating future climates for public policy: a critical assessment of the development of climate scenarios for the UK. Environmental Science & Policy 11: 54-70.
14. Hulme M, Dessai S. 2008b. Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of scenarios? Environmental Research Letters, (in press).
15. Hulme M, Jenkins GJ. 1998. Climate Change Scenarios for the UK: Scientific Report. Climatic Research Unit: Norwich.
16. Hulme M, Jenkins GJ, Lu X, Turnpenny JR, Mitchell TD, Jones RG, Lowe J, Murphy JM, Hassell D, Boorman P, McDonald R, Hill S. 2002. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research: Norwich.
17. IPCC. 2007a. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
18. IPCC. 2007b. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
19. Jenkins GJ, Perry MC, Prior MJO. 2007. The Climate of the United Kingdom and Recent Trends. Met Office Hadley Centre: Exeter.
20. Jones PD, Hulme M. 1997. The changing temperature of 'central England'. In Climates of the British Isles: Present, Past and Future, Hulme M, Barrow E (eds). Routledge: London; 173-196.
21. Karoly DJ, Stott PA. 2006. Anthropogenic warming of central England temperature. Atmospheric Science Letters 7: 81-85.
22. Lambert FH, Gillett NP, Stone DA, Huntingford C. 2005. Attribution studies of observed land precipitation changes with nine coupled models. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L10203.
23. Lambert FH, Stott PA, Allen MR, Palmer MA. 2004. Detection and attribution of changes in 20th century land precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters 31: L18704.
24. Mearns LO, Hulme M, Carter TR, Leemans R, Lal M, Whetton PH. 2001. Climate scenario development. In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basi, Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 739-768.
25. Osborn TJ, Conway D, Hulme M, Gregory JM, Jones PD. 1999. Air flow influences on local climate: observed and simulated mean relationships for the United Kingdom. Climate Research 13: 173-191.
26. Osborn TJ, Hulme M. 2002. Evidence for trends in heavy rainfall events over the UK. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A - Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 360: 1313-1325.
27. Parker D, Horton B. 2005. Uncertainties in central England temperature 1878-2003 and some improvements to the maximum and minimum series. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1173-1188.
28. Phillips TJ, AchutaRao K, Bader D, Covey C, Doutriaux CM, Fiorino M, Gleckler PJ, Sperber KR, Taylor KE. 2006. Coupled climate model appraisal: A benchmark for future studies. Eos-Transactions-American Geophysical Union 87: 185.
29. Pielke RA Jr. 2008. Climate predictions and observations. Nature Geosciences 1: 206.
30. Rahmstorf S, Cazenave A, Church JA, Hansen JE, Keeling RF, Parker DE, Somerville RCJ. 2007. Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316: 709-709.
31. Randall DA, Wood RA, Bony S, Colman R, Fichefet T, Fyfe J, Kattsov V, Pitman A, Shukla J, Srinivasan J, Stouffer RJ, Sumi A, Taylor KE. 2007. Climate models and their evaluation. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 589-662.
32. Sexton DMH, Parker DE, Folland CK. 2004. Natural and Human Influences on Central England Temperature, Hadley Centre Technical Note 46. Hadley Centre, Met Office: Bracknell.
33. Smith DM, Cusack S, Colman AW, Folland CK, Harris GR, Murphy JM. 2007. Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317: 796-799.
34. Troccoli A, Harrison M, Anderson D, Mason S (eds). 2008. Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk. Springer: Dordrecht.
35. Wilby RL, Harris I. 2006. A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resources Research 42: W02419.
36. Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC, Lambert FH, Gillett NP, Solomon S, Stott PA, Nozawa T. 2007. Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature 448: 461-465.