Large-scale factors in tropical and extratropical cyclone transition and extreme weather events

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

Volumn 1146, Issue , 2008, Pages 189-211

  Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes ^a   Simmonds, Ian ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

Author keywords

Cold surges; Extratropical cyclones; Hybrid systems; Midlatitude storms; Tropical transition

Indexed keywords

AUSTRALIA; COLD; CONFERENCE PAPER; DATA ANALYSIS; HURRICANE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SOUTH AMERICA; SPAIN; TROPIC CLIMATE;

EID: 57249108376     PISSN: 00778923     EISSN: 17496632     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1196/annals.1446.005     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (61)

1. Anthes, R.A. 1982. Tropical cyclones: their evolution, structure and effects. Am. Meteorol. Soc. Meteorol. Monogr. 19 : 208.
2. Holland, G.J. & M. Lander 1993. The meandering nature of tropical cyclone tracks. J. Atmos. Sci. 50 : 1254 1266.
3. Hoarau, K. 2000. Supertyphoon Forrest (September 1983): the overlooked record holder of intensification in 24, 36 and 48 h. Wea. Forecasting 15 : 357 360.
4. Simpson, R.H. 1974. The hurricane disaster-potential scale. Weatherwise 27 : 169 and 186.
5. Gray, W.M. 1968. Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev. 96 : 669 700.
6. Zehr, R.M. 1992. Tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific. NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS 61 : 181.
7. De Maria, M., J.A. Knaff & B.H. Connell. 2001. A tropical cyclone genesis parameter for the tropical Atlantic. Wea. Forecasting 16 : 219 233.
8. Davis, C.A. & L.F. Bosart. 2003. Baroclinically induced tropical cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev. 131 : 2730 2747.
9. Neumann, C. 1993. Global Overview. In Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. WMO/TD-560, G.J. Holland, Ed. : 3.1 3.46. World Meteorol. Org. Geneva.
10. Pezza, A.B. & I. Simmonds. 2005. The first South Atlantic hurricane: unprecedented blocking, low shear and climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 : doi :.
11. McTaggart-Cowan, R., L. Bosart, C.A. Davis, et al. 2006. Analysis of hurricane Catarina (2004). Mon. Wea. Rev. 134 : 3029 3053.
12. Pezza, A.B., I. Simmonds & A. Pereira Filho. 2008. Climate perspective on the large scale associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic Hurricane. Int. J. Climatol. In press.
13. Hart, R.E. 2003. A cyclone phase space derived from thermal wind and thermal asymmetry. Mon. Wea. Rev. 131 : 585 616.
14. Jones, S.C. et al. 2003. The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: forecast challenges, current understanding and future directions. Wea. Forecasting 18 : 1052 1092.
15. nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Fort Collins, CO. American Meteorological Society : 645 646.
16. Palmén, E. 1958. Vertical circulation and release of kinetic energy during the development of hurricane Hazel into an extratropical storm. Tellus 10 : 1 21.
17. Dimego, G.J. & L.F. Bosart. 1982. The transformation of tropical storm Agnes into an extratropical cyclone. Part I: the observed fields and vertical motion computations. Mon. Weather Rev. 110 : 385 411.
18. Emanuel, K.A. 1987. An air-sea interaction model of intraseasonal oscillations in the tropics. J. Atmos. Sci. 44 : 2324 2340.
19. Emanuel, K.A. 1987. The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature 326 : 483 485.
20. Hart, R.E. & J.I. Evans. 2001. A climatology of the extratropical transition of Atlantic tropical cyclones. J. Climate 14 : 546 564.
21. Hart, R.E., J.L. Evans & C. Evans. 2006. Synoptic composites of the extratropical transition life cycle of north Atlantic tropical cyclones: factors determining posttransition evolution. Mon. Weather Rev. 134 : 553 578.
22. Bugoni, L., M. Sander & E.S. Costa. 2007. Effects of the first Southern Atlantic hurricane on Atlantic Petrels. Wilson J. Ornithol. 119 : 725 729.
23. Davis, C.A. & L.F. Bosart. 2004. The TT problem: forecasting the tropical transition of cyclones. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 85 : 1657 1662.
24. Dare, R.A. & N.E. Davidson. 2004. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in the Australian region. Mon. Weather Rev. 132 : 3049 3065.
25. Davidson, N.E., K. Tory, M.J. Reeder & W.L. Drosdowsky. 2007. Extratropical-tropical interaction during onset of the Australian Monsoon: reanalysis diagnostics and idealized dry simulations. J. Atmos. Sci. 64 : 3475 3498, doi :.
26. Sinclair, M.R. 2002. Extratropical transition of southwest Pacific tropical cyclones. Part I: climatology and mean structure changes. Mon. Weather Rev. 130 : 590 609.
27. Foley, G.R. & B.N. Hanstrum. 1994. The capture of tropical cyclones by cold fronts off the west coast of Australia. Weather Forecast. 9 : 577 592.
28. Veiga, J.A.P., A.B. Pezza, I. Simmonds & P.L. Silva Dias. 2008. An analysis of the environmental energetics associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane. Geophy. Res. Lett., doi :, in press.
29. Fyfe, J.C., G.J. Boer & G.M. Flato. 1999. The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations and their projected changes under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26 : 1601 1604.
30. Thompson, D.W. & S. Solomon. 2002. Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 296 : 895 899.
31. Kwok, R. & J.C. Comiso. 2002. Southern Ocean climate and sea ice anomalies associated with the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate 15 : 487 501.
32. Marshall, G.J. 2003. Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from Observations and Reanalyses. J. Climate 16 : 4134 4143.
33. Renwick, J.A. 2004. Trends in the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex in NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 : doi :, L07209.
34. Cai, W., G. Shi, T. Cowan, et al. 2005. The response of the Southern Annular Mode, the East Australian Current, and the Southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming. Geophy. Res. Lett. 32 : doi :, L23706.
35. Garde, L. 2007. The unusual cyclone 'Donald': Large scale perspectives and comparison with the first South Atlantic hurricane. Honours Thesis submitted as part of the B.Sc. (Hons) degree in the School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, 107 pp.
36. th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical meteorology, Monterey, 23-28th April 2006 American Meteorological Society Available online from http://ams.confex.com/ams/ 27Hurricanes/techprogram/)
37. Simmonds, I. & T. Richter. 2000. Synoptic comparison of cold events in winter and summer in Melbourne and Perth. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 67 : 19 32.
38. Ashcroft, L. 2007. Polar Outbreaks over Southern Australia: synoptic mechanisms and planetary links. Honours Thesis submitted as part of the B.Sc. (Hons) degree in the School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, 103 pp.
39. Marengo, J.A., A. Cornejo, P. Satyamurty, et al. 1997. Cold surges in the tropical and extratropical South America. The strong event in June 1994. Mon. Weather Rev. 125 : 2759 2788.
40. Murray, R.J. & I. Simmonds. 1991. A numerical scheme for tracking cyclone centres from digital data. Part I: development and operation of the scheme. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 39 : 155 166.
41. Simmonds, I., K. Keay & E.P. Lim. 2003. Synoptic activity in the seas around Antarctica. Mon. Wea. Rev. 131 : 272 288.
42. Kistler, R. et al. 2001. The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. A. Met. Soc. 82 : 247 267.
43. Wilks, D.S. 1995. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. International Geophysics Series, 59 : 467. Academic Press. New York.
44. Uppala, S.M., P.W. Kallberg, A.J. Simmons, et al. 2005. The ERA-40 Reanalysis. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 131 : 2961 3012.
45. Waliser, D.E. & C. Gautier. 1993. A satellite-derived climatology of the ITCZ. J. Climate 6 : 2162 2174.
46. Palmén, E.H. 1948. On the formation and structure of tropical cyclones. Geophysica 3 : 26 38.
47. Gray, W.M. 1979. Hurricanes: their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. Meteorology Over the Tropical Oceans, D.B. Shaw, Ed. : 155 218. Royal Meteorological Society.
48. Lorenz, E.N. 1967. The Nature and Theory of the General Circulation of the Atmosphere. WMO-No. 218, TP 115, Geneva, Switzerland, 161 pp.
49. Simmonds, I., A. Rocha & D. Walland. 1992. Consequences of winter tropical pressure anomalies in the Australian region. Int. J. Climatol. 12 : 419 434.
50. Watterson, I.G. et al. 1995. Seasonal and interannual variability of tropical cyclogenesis: Diagnostics from large-scale fields. J. Climate 8 : 3052 3066.
51. Elsner, J.B. et al. 1996. Objective classification of Atlantic Hurricanes. J. Climate 9 : 2880 2889.
52. Royer, J.-F., F. Chauvin, B. Timbal, P. Araspin & D. Grimal. 1998. A GCM study of the impact of greenhouse gas increase on the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones. Clim. Change 38 : 307 343.
53. Rayner, N.A., P. Brohan, D.E. Parker, et al. 2006. Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 dataset. J. Climate 19 : 446 469.
54. Enfield, D.B., A.M. Mestas-Nuñez & P.J. Trimble. 2001. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 : 2077 2080.
55. Callaghan, J. 2001. Meteorology Report on the Subtropical Low of March 2001. Australian Bureau of Meteorology Internal report (available from http://www.bom.gov.au)
56. McCrone, P.J. 2002. Case study of an Australian subtropical cyclone from March 2001. Preprints, 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, 28 April-3 May. American Meteorological Society 47 50.
57. Garde, L., A.B. Pezza & J.A.T. Bye. 2008. The unusual cyclone "Donald": Large scale perspectives and comparison with the first South Atlantic hurricane. 15th National Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society conference. Geelong. Victoria, Australia. 29th Jan to 1st Feb 2008 page 55. Available from http://www.amos.org.au
58. Vaquero, J.M., R. García-Herrera, D. Wheeler, et al. 2008. A historical analog of 2005 hurricane Vince. Bull. Am. Meteoro. Soc. doi :.
59. Pezza, A.B. & T. Ambrizzi. 2005. Dynamical conditions and synoptic tracks associated with different types of cold surges over tropical South America. Int. J. Climatol. 25 : 215 241.
60. Pezza, A.B. & T. Ambrizzi. 1999. Temperature fluctuations during wintertime in South America, correlating Patagonia region with Southern Brazil. Braz. J. Meteorol. 14 : 23 34 (in Portuguese).
61. Simmonds, I. & H. Rashid. 2001. An investigation of a dramatic cold outbreak over southeast Australia. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 50 : 249 261.