Do recent emission trends imply higher emissions forever?

Climatic Change

Volumn 91, Issue 3-4, 2008, Pages 237-248

  Van Vuuren, Detlef P ^a   Riahi, Keywan ^b  

^a PBL NETHERLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AGENCY   (Netherlands)

^b INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   (Austria)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 56549085174     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-008-9485-y     Document Type: Editorial

References (31)

1. M Auffhammer RT Carson 2008 Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information J Environ Econ Manage 55 229 247
2. BP (2008) Statistical review of world energy June 2007. British Petroleum, London
3. CDIAC (2008) Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel consumption and cement manufacture. http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/
4. China Daily (2008) IMF cuts Chinese economic growth forecasts to about 9%. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-05/09/content_6672331.htm
5. PP Craig A Gadgil JG Koomey 2002 What can history teach us? A retrospective examination of long-term energy forecasts for the United States Annu Rev Energy Environ 27 83 118
6. MGJ den Elzen DP Van Vuuren 2007 Peaking profiles for achieving long-term temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs PNAS 104 46 17931 17936
7. den Elzen MGJ, Höhne N (2008) Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in Annex I and non-Annex I countries for meeting concentration stabilisation targets. Clim Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9484-z (same issue)
8. Economist (2007) A less fiery dragon? China may be a smaller economic giant than previously thought. The Economist, November 29th
9. Economist (2008) Special report on China. The Economist, March 13th
10. Fisher B, Nakicenovic N, Alfsen K, Corfee Morlot J, De la Chesnaye F, Hourcade J-C, Jiang K, Kainuma M, La Rovere E, Matysek A, Rana A, Riahi K, Richels R, Rose S, Van Vuuren DP, Warren R (2007) Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context. In: Metz B, Davidson O, Bosch P, Dave R, Meyer L (eds) Climate change 2007-mitigation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
11. Gregg JS, Andres RJ, Marland G (2008) China: emissions pattern of the world leader in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production. Geophys Res Lett 35:L08806. doi: 10.1029/2007GL032887
12. CA Holtz 2006 New capital estimates for China China Econ Rev 17 142 185
13. IEA (2006) Energy balances of OECD and non-OECD countries. International Energy Agency, Paris
14. IEA (2007) World energy outlook 2007 vol. IEA, Paris
15. IMF (2008) World economic outlook. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC
16. IPCC (2008) Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts, and response strategies. IPCC Expert Meeting Report on New Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Noordwijkerhout
17. Klein-Goldewijk K (2008) HYDE-database. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
18. G Marland 2008 Uncertainties in accounting for CO2 from fossil fuels J Ind Ecol 12 2 136 139
19. Nakicenovic (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) vol. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
20. Olivier JGJ (2004) EDGAR 3: uncertainties. National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven
21. Olivier JGJ, Peters JAHW (2002) Uncertainties in global, regional and national emission inventories. In: Van Ham J, Baede APM, Guicherit R, Williams-Jacobe JFGM (eds) Non-CO2 greenhouse gases: scientific understanding, control options and policy aspects. Proceedings of the Third International Symposium, Maastricht, pp 525-540
22. R Pielke T Wigley C Green 2008 Dangerous assumptions Nature 452 531 532
23. MR Raupach G Marland P Ciais C Le Quére CG Canadell G Klepper CB Field 2007 Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions PNAS 104 24 10288 10293
24. Rosenthal E (2008) Europe turns back to coal, raising climate fears. The New York Times, April 23
25. Sheehan P (2008) The new global growth path: implications for climate change analysis and policy. Clim Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9415-z (this press)
26. JE Sinton DG Fridley 2000 What goes up: recent trends in China's energy consumption Energy Policy 28 671 687
27. DP van Vuuren BC O'Neill 2006 The consistency of IPCC's SRES scenarios to 1990-2000 trends and recent projections Clim Change 75 1 2 9-46
28. DP van Vuuren Z Fengqi B de Vries J Kejun C Graveland L Yun 2003 Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century-exploration of baseline development and mitigation options Energy Policy 31 369 387
29. World Bank (2006) World development indicators. World Bank, Washington, DC
30. World Bank (2007) 2005 international comparison program preliminary results. The World Bank, Washington, DC
31. World Bank (2008) World economic prospects 2008. World Bank, Washington, DC