The transition of Taiwan's political geography

Asian Survey

Volumn 48, Issue 5, 2008, Pages 773-793

  Lay, Jinn Guey ^a   Yap, Ko Hua ^a   Chen, Yu Wen ^b  

^a NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

^b UNIVERSITY OF KONSTANZ   (Germany)

Author keywords

Ethnic identity; Geographical variation; Partisan support; Spatial analysis; Taiwan

Indexed keywords

ETHNIC GROUP; GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATION; POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY; RACIAL IDENTITY; SPATIAL ANALYSIS;

ASIA; EURASIA; FAR EAST; TAIWAN;

EID: 56349159230     PISSN: 00044687     EISSN: 1533838X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1525/AS.2008.48.5.773     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Shelly Rigger, Politics in Taiwan: Voting for Democracy (New York: Routledge, 1999), pp. 63-66.
2. Linda Chao and Ramon H. Myers, The First Chinese Democracy: Political Life in the Republic of China on Taiwan (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998), pp. 8-9
3. David Dahua Yang, "The Basis of Political Legitimacy in Late-Authoritarian Taiwan," in Legitimacy: Ambiguities of Political Success or Failure in East and Southeast Asia, ed. Lynn T. White (Singapore: World Scientific Press, 2005), pp. 67-112
4. Shelly Rigger, "The Democratic Progressive Party in 2000: Obstacles and Opportunities," China Quarterly 168 (December 2001), pp. 944-59.
5. Rigger, Politics in Taiwan, p. 81.
6. Ibid.
7. Rigger, "The Democratic Progressive Party in 2000," p. 945.
8. Rigger, Politics in Taiwan, p. 82
9. Yunhan Chu and Jihwen Lin, "Political Development in 20th-century Taiwan: State-Building, Regime Transformation, and the Construction of national Identity," China Quarterly 165 (March 2001), pp. 102-29.
10. Rigger, Politics in Taiwan, p. 81.
11. Ibid., p. 148.
12. Ibid.
13. Chinghsin Yu, "The Evolving Party System in Taiwan, 1995-2004," Journal of Asian and African Studies 40:1-2 (April 2005), pp. 105-23.
14. For more information on Lee Teng-hui's democratic reform and conflicts with the KMT, see Tsemin Lin, Yunhan Chu, and Melvin J. Hinich, "Conflict Displacement and Regime Transition in Taiwan: A Spatial Analysis," World Politics 48:4 (July 1996), pp. 453-81.
15. Yu, "The Evolving Party System in Taiwan," p. 106.
16. Yushan Wu, "Taiwan in 2001: Stalemated on All Fronts," Asian Survey 42:1 (January/February 2002), pp. 29-38.
17. Jeongdai Kim et al., "A Spatial Analysis of County-Level outcomes in U.S. Presidential Elections: 1988-2000," Electoral Studies 22 (December 2003), pp. 741-61.
18. Michael E. Shin and John Agnew, "The Geography of Party Replacement in Italy, 1987-1996," Political Geography 21 (February 2002), pp. 221-42.
19. According to Cliff and Ord's definition, "If the presence of some quality in a county of a country makes its presence in neighboring counties more or less likely, we say that the phenomenon exhibits spatial autocorrelation." See A. D. Cliff, and J. K. Ord, Spatial Autocorrelation (London: Pion, 1973), pp. 1-2.
20. Kim et al. "A Spatial Analysis," pp. 741-61
21. David Darmofal, "The Political Geography of Macro-Level Turnout in American Political Development," Political Geography 25 (February 2006), pp. 123-50
22. Wendy K. Tam Cho, "Contagion Effects and Ethnic Contribution networks," American Journal of Political Science 47:2 (April 2003), pp. 368-87
23. Carlos Javier Vilalta y Perdomo, "The local Context and the Spatial Diffusion of Multiparty Competition in Urban Mexico, 1994-2000," Political Geography 23 (may 2004), pp. 403-23.
24. Peng Ming-min captured 21.13%, Lin Yang-kang 14.9%, and Chen Lü-an 9.98% of the vote. This information is obtained from the government of the Republic of China, Central Election Commission, , accessed April 12, 2007 (hereafter, ROC CEC database).
25. For more detail, see .
26. For more information on the 1996 presidential election, see Rigger, Politics in Taiwan, pp. 174-77.
27. Peishan Lee and Yungming Hsu, "Southern Politics? Regional Trajectories of Party Development," Issues and Studies 38:2 (June 2002), pp. 29-38.
28. The three elections were conducted on December 3, 1994. In the provincial gubernatorial election, James Soong (of the KMT) won the election by 56.22% of the vote. Chen Dingnan (of the DPP) garnered 38.72%, Chu Kao-cheng (of the NP) 4.31%, independent Tsai Cheng-chi 0.44%, and independent Wu Hsin 0.3% of the vote. In the Taipei mayoral election, Chen Shui-bian (of the DPP) won the election by 43.67% of the vote, while Jaw Shaw-kong (of the NP) obtained 30.17%, Huang Da-chou (of the KMT) 25.89%, and independent Ji Rong-chi 0.28% of the vote. In the Kaohsiung mayoral election, Wu Den-yih (of the KMT) won the election by 54.46% of the vote, while Chang Chun-hsiung (of the DPP) obtained 39.29%, Tan A-gen (of the NP) 3.45%, independent Shih Chung-hsiang 1.78%, and Cheng De-yao 1.02% of the votes. See ROC CEC database.
29. Rigger, "The Democratic Progressive Party in 2000," p. 946.
30. Among other candidates, James Soong won 36.84%, Lien Chan 23.1%, Hsu Hsin-liang 0.63%, and Li Ao 0.13% of the vote. See the ROC CEC database.
31. Steven Chan, "Taiwan in 2004: Electoral Contests and Political Stasis," Asian Survey 45:1 (January/February 2005), pp. 54-58.
32. Cal Clark, "The Paradox of the National Identity Issue in Chen Shui-bian's 2004 Presidential Campaign: Base Constituencies vs. the Moderate Middle," Issues and Studies 41:1 (March 2005), pp. 53-86
33. Jacques deLisle, "The Aftermath of Taiwan's Presidential Election: A Symposium Report," Philadelphia: Foreign Policy Research Institute, June 18, 2004, , accessed April 12, 2007.
34. See ROC CEC database.
35. Chan, "Taiwan in 2004," p. 56.
36. The KMT garnered 46.1%, DPP 33.2%, NP 13.0%, and other smaller parties or independent candidates obtained the remaining 7.7% of votes. See ROC CEC database.
37. The KMT captured 46.4%, DPP 29.6%, NP 7.1%, and other smaller parties or independent candidates obtained the remaining 16.9% of votes.
38. The KMT garnered 28.6%, DPP 33.4%, NP 2.6%, the newly founded PFP captured 18.6%, and the TSU 7.8% of votes. other smaller parties or independent candidates obtained the remaining 9.0% of the votes.
39. The KMT obtained 32.8%, DPP 35.7%, PFP 13.9%, TSU 7.8%, and other smaller parties or independent candidates obtained the remaining 9.8% of votes.
40. Naiteh Wu, "Shehui Fenshi Han Zhengdang Jingzheng: Jieshi Guomindang Weihe Jixü Zhizheng" [Social cleavages and political competition: Why is there no "stunt election" in Taiwan?], in Zhongyangyanjiuyuan Minzuxüe Yanjiusuo Jikan [Bulletin of the Institute of Ethnology, Academia Sinica] 78 (June 1995), pp. 101-30.
41. Naiteh Wu, "Gujia Rentong Yu Zhengdang Zhichi: Taiwan Zhengdang Jingzheng De Shehui Jichu" [Party support and national identities: Social cleavages and party competition in Taiwan], in ibid., 74 (november 1993), pp. 33-61
42. Naiteh Wu, "Rentong Chongtu Han Zhengzhi Xinren: Xianjieduan Taiwan Zuqün Zhengzhi De Hexin Nanti" [The identity conflict and political trust: Core dilemmas of current ethnic politics in Taiwan], in Taiwan Shehuixüe [Taiwan Sociology] 4 (December 2002), pp. 75-118.
43. Fuchang Wang, "Zuqün Tonghua Yu Dongyuan: Taiwan Minzhong Zhengdang Zhichi Zhi Fenxi" [Ethnic assimilation and mobilization: An analysis of party support in Taiwan], in Zhongyangyanjiuyuan Minzuxüe Yanjiusuo Jikan 77 (June 1994), pp. 1-34
44. Fuchang Wang, "Zuqün Yishi, Minzu Zhuyi Yu Zhengdang Zhichi: 1990 Niandai Taiwan De Zuqün Zhengzhi" [Ethnic consciousness, nationalism, and party support], in Taiwan Shehuixüe Yanjiu [Taiwan Sociological Review] 2 (July 1998), pp. 1-45
45. Fuchang Wang, Dangdai Taiwan Shehui De Zuqün Xiangxiang [Ethnic imagination in contemporary Taiwan] (Taipei: Social Publishing Co., Ltd., 2003).
46. John Fusheng Hsieh, "The 2000 Presidential Election," p. 13
47. Shingyuan Sheng and Yiyan Chen, "Zhengzhi Fenqi Yu Zhengdang Jingzheng: 2001 Nian Lifaweiyuan Xüanjü De Fenxi" [Political cleavage and party competition: An analysis of the 2001 Legislative Yuan election], in Xünjü Yanjiu [Journal of Electoral Studies] 10:1 (May 2003), pp. 7-40
48. Fuchang Wang, "Zuqün Jiechu Jihui? Haishi Zuqdsun Jingzheng? Bensheng Minnanren Zuqün Yishi Neihan Yu Diqü Chayi Moshi Zhi Jieshi" [Ethnic contact or ethnic competition? Explaining regional differences in ethnic consciousness among Hoklos in Taiwan], in Taiwan Shehuixüe 4 (December 2002), pp. 11-74.
49. John Fusheng Hsieh, "The 2000 Presidential Election," p. 13.
50. Hakka are less supportive of the pan-green than Hoklo because the Hakka feel that the pan-green represents predominantly Hoklo interests. This can be evidenced in the composition of members in the pan-green parties: most of them are Hoklo, they tend to speak in Hoklo, and stress chiefly the Hoklo values and interests in their conduct of political activities. For more information, see Wang, Dangdai Taiwan Shehui, pp. 137-40.
51. Tienfu Shih, Qingdai Zaitai Hanren De Zujifenbu Han Yuanxiang Shenghuo Fangshi [Han Chinese settlement in Taiwan during the Qing Dynasty and their original life style] (Taipei: National Taiwan normal University, Department of geography, 1987).
52. John Fusheng Hsieh, "The 2000 Presidential Election and Its Implications for Taiwan's Domestic Politics," Issues & Studies 37:1 (January/February 2001), pp. 1-19.
53. The KMT's purge of local inhabitants, particularly elites, as evidenced in the 2-28 Incident of 1947, also sharpened the schism between the mainlanders and older residents of Taiwan.
54. The only exception might lie in Wang's comments on the 1998 Taipei mayoral election. In this election, incumbent Mayor Chen Shui-bian of the DPP was defeated by KMT challenger Ma Ying-jeou. In the eyes of many political observers, Chen's defeat came as a surprise as he had won recognition for his contributions to Taipei City in his term. According to the exit polls released by the press and media immediately after the election, more than 80% of Mainlanders voted for Ma. by contrast, the Hoklo electorate did not unite to vote for any particular candidate. Wang argues that this largely explains Ma's victory in this election. He also surmises that the 1998 election might have taught a lesson to Hoklo electorates with a pangreen inclination. When Chen ran for the presidential election in 2000, Hoklo electorates in southern Taiwan united to vote for Chen, giving him a high percentage of votes in the south. Inferring from Wang's observation, one can postulate that with the boost of political mobilization, ethnic distribution could have played a role in the 1998 election and further affected the subsequent 2000 election. This hypothesis, however, awaits testing in future research.
55. We also examine the impact of socioeconomic variables, such as educational level, employment, and income. We find that the explanatory ability of these variables is fairly low and cannot be compared with that of the variable of ethnic identity.
56. The new legislative reform halved the total number of legislative seats from 225 to 113 in the 2008 legislative election. The old "single-vote, multiple-member district" system is replaced by a "two-vote, single-member district" system.
57. For more information, see Luc Anselin, "Local Indicators of Spatial Association-Lisa," Geographical Analysis 27 (January 1995), pp. 91-115.
58. i. This procedure is performed 999 times.
59. Luc Anselin, "The Moran Scatter Plot as an ESDA Tool to Assess Local Instability in Spatial Association," in Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS, ed. Manfred M. Fischer, Hank J. Scholten and David Unwin (London: Taylor & Francis, 1996), pp. 111-25.
60. As Kinmen County and Lienchiang County are distant from the Taiwan island, we exclude these two areas in our analysis and focus on electoral results on the main island of Taiwan.
61. GeoDa can be obtained from the Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science (CSISS), , accessed September 23, 2007.