Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of Monte-Carlo simulation for bulk power system reliability evaluation

Zhongguo Dianji Gongcheng Xuebao/Proceedings of the Chinese Society of Electrical Engineering

Volumn 28, Issue 28, 2008, Pages 61-67

  Zhao, Yuan ^a   Shen, Zhi Jian ^a   Zhou, Nian Cheng ^a   Zhou, Jia Qi ^a   Liu, Zhi Hong ^b  

^a CHONGQING UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b STATE GRID CHONGQING ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY   (China)

Author keywords

Central limit theory; Monte Carlo simulation; Reliability evaluation; Sampling size

Indexed keywords

CLUSTER ANALYSIS; ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING; ELECTRIC NETWORK ANALYSIS; ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS; ELECTRIC POWER TRANSMISSION NETWORKS; FORECASTING; LATTICE CONSTANTS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; POWER TRANSMISSION; PROBABILITY; QUALITY ASSURANCE; RANDOM PROCESSES; RANDOM VARIABLES; RELIABILITY ANALYSIS; RELIABILITY THEORY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SAMPLING; TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

BULK POWER SYSTEMS; CALCULATION ACCURACIES; CALCULATION TIMES; CENTRAL LIMIT THEORIES; CENTRAL LIMIT THEORY; CONFIDENCE INTERVALS; EXPECTATION VALUES; FORECASTING METHODS; FORECASTING TECHNIQUES; LOSS OF LOAD PROBABILITIES; MATHEMATICAL FORMULAS; MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION; MONTE-CARLO SIMULATIONS; POWER SYSTEMS; PROBABILISTIC UNCERTAINTIES; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSES; RANDOM SAMPLINGS; RELIABILITY EVALUATION; SIMULATION ACCURACIES; SYSTEM STATES;

RELIABILITY;

EID: 54549092076     PISSN: 02588013     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. Billinton R, Li W Y. Reliability evaluation of electric power systems using Monte Carlo methods[M]. New York: Plenue Press, 1994: 1-5.
2. Feng Yongqing, Wu Wenchuan, Sun Hongbin, et al. A preliminary investigation on power system operation risk evaluation in the modern energy control center[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2005, 25(13): 73-79(in Chinese).
3. Zhao Yuan, Zhou Jiaqi, Zhou Niancheng. An analytical approach for bulk power systems reliability assessment[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2006, 26(5): 19-24(in Chinese).
4. Zhao Yuan, Zhou Niancheng, Xie Kaigui. Research on technique of system state selection for bulk power system reliability assessment[J]. Electric Power, 2006, 39(6): 5-9(in Chinese).
5. Billinton R, Li W Y. Hybrid approach for reliability evaluation of composite generation and transmission systems using Monte-Carlo simulation and enumeration technique[J]. IEE Proceedings on Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 1991, 138(3): 233-241.
6. Wangdee W, Billinton R. Bulk electric system well-being analysis using sequential Monte Carlo simulation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2006, 21(1): 188-193.
7. Bie Chaohong, Wang Xifan. The application of Monte Carlo method to reliability evaluation of power systems[J]. Automation of Electrical Power Systems, 1997, 21(6): 68-75(in Chinese).
8. Liu Yang, Zhou Jiaqi, Xie Kaigui. The parallel Monte-Carlo simulation of bulk power system reliability evaluation based on Beowulf cluster[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2006, 26(20): 9-14(in Chinese).
9. Song Yunting, Guo Yongji, Cheng Lin. Monte-Carlo simulation to adequacy evaluation for large scale power generation and transmission system[J]. Power System Technology, 2003, 27(8): 24-28(in Chinese).
10. Ding Ming, Zhang Jing, Li Shenghu. A sequential Monte-Carlo simulation based reliability evaluation model for distribution network[J]. Power System Technology, 2004, 28(3): 38-42(in Chinese).
11. Billinton R, Wangdee W. Delivery point reliability indices of a bulk electric system using sequential Monte Carlo simulation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2006, 21(1): 345-351.
12. Billinton R, Li W Y. A system state transition sampling method for composite system reliability evaluation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1993, 8(3): 761-767.
13. Ubeda J R, Allan R N. Reliability assessment of composite hydrothermal generation and transmission systems using sequential simulation[J]. IEE Proceedings on Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 1994, 141(4): 257-262.
14. Billinton R, Jonnavithula A. Application of sequential Monte Carlo simulation to evaluation of distributions of composite system indices[J]. IEE Proceedings on Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 1997, 144(2): 87-90.
15. Sankarakrishnan A, Billinton R. Sequential Monte Carlo simulation for composite power systems reliability analysis with time varying loads[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1995, 10(1): 1540-1545.
16. Ubeda J R, Allan R N. Sequential simulation applied to composite system reliability evaluation[J]. IEE Proceedings on Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 1992, 139(2): 81-86.
17. Billinton R, Kumar S, Chowdhury N, et al. A reliability test system for educational purposes-basic data[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1989, 4(3): 1238-1244.
18. IEEE Reliability Test System Task Force of the Application of Probability Methods Subcomittee. The IEEE reliability test system-1996[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1999, 14(3): 1010-1020.
19. Zhao Yuan, Zhou Jiaqi. Research of the optimal load shedding model in the composite generation and transmission system reliability evaluation[J]. Power System Technology, 2004, 28(10): 34-37(in Chinese).