메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 146, Issue 2, 2008, Pages 318-328

Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian shrinkage a valid alternative to principal components?

Author keywords

Bayesian shrinkage; Bayesian VAR; Large cross sections; Lasso regression; Principal components; Ridge regression

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; SHRINKAGE; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

EID: 53649093540     PISSN: 03044076     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.08.011     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (363)

References (33)
  • 1
    • 0037277111 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions
    • Bai J. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71 1 (2003) 135-171
    • (2003) Econometrica , vol.71 , Issue.1 , pp. 135-171
    • Bai, J.1
  • 2
    • 0036221554 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models
    • Bai J., and Ng S. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70 1 (2002) 191-221
    • (2002) Econometrica , vol.70 , Issue.1 , pp. 191-221
    • Bai, J.1    Ng, S.2
  • 3
    • 33745304373 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Confidence intervals for diffusion index forecasts and inference for factor-augmented regressions
    • Bai J., and Ng S. Confidence intervals for diffusion index forecasts and inference for factor-augmented regressions. Econometrica 74 4 (2006) 1133-1150
    • (2006) Econometrica , vol.74 , Issue.4 , pp. 1133-1150
    • Bai, J.1    Ng, S.2
  • 4
    • 53649085867 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors
    • Bai J., and Ng S. Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors. Journal of Econometrics 146 2 (2008) 304-317
    • (2008) Journal of Econometrics , vol.146 , Issue.2 , pp. 304-317
    • Bai, J.1    Ng, S.2
  • 5
    • 53649105951 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Banbura, M., Giannone, D., Reichlin, L., 2007. Bayesian VARs with Large Panels, Discussion Paper 6326, Center for Economic Policy Research. Journal of Applied Econometrics (forthcoming)
    • Banbura, M., Giannone, D., Reichlin, L., 2007. Bayesian VARs with Large Panels, Discussion Paper 6326, Center for Economic Policy Research. Journal of Applied Econometrics (forthcoming)
  • 6
    • 0000915180 scopus 로고
    • Arbitrage, factor structure and mean-variance analysis in large asset markets
    • Chamberlain G., and Rothschild M. Arbitrage, factor structure and mean-variance analysis in large asset markets. Econometrica 51 (1983) 1305-1324
    • (1983) Econometrica , vol.51 , pp. 1305-1324
    • Chamberlain, G.1    Rothschild, M.2
  • 7
    • 0035273106 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atomic decomposition by basis pursuit
    • Chen S.S., Donoho D., and Saunders M. Atomic decomposition by basis pursuit. SIAM Review 43 (2001) 129-159
    • (2001) SIAM Review , vol.43 , pp. 129-159
    • Chen, S.S.1    Donoho, D.2    Saunders, M.3
  • 8
    • 53649104230 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • D'Agostino, A., Giannone, D., 2007. Comparing alternative predictors based on large-panel factor models, Discussion Paper 6564, Center for Economic Policy Research
    • D'Agostino, A., Giannone, D., 2007. Comparing alternative predictors based on large-panel factor models, Discussion Paper 6564, Center for Economic Policy Research
  • 9
    • 53649089363 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • D'Agostino, A., Giannone, D., Surico, P., 2006. (Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability, Working Paper Series 605, European Central Bank
    • D'Agostino, A., Giannone, D., Surico, P., 2006. (Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability, Working Paper Series 605, European Central Bank
  • 10
    • 7044231546 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An iterative thresholding algorithm for linear inverse problems with a sparsity constraint
    • Daubechies I., Defrise M., and De Mol C. An iterative thresholding algorithm for linear inverse problems with a sparsity constraint. Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 57 (2004) 1416-1457
    • (2004) Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics , vol.57 , pp. 1416-1457
    • Daubechies, I.1    Defrise, M.2    De Mol, C.3
  • 11
    • 34548674463 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A note on wavelet-based inversion methods
    • Nashed M.Z., and Scherzer O. (Eds), American Mathematical Society
    • De Mol C., and Defrise M. A note on wavelet-based inversion methods. In: Nashed M.Z., and Scherzer O. (Eds). Inverse Problems, Image Analysis and Medical Imaging (2002), American Mathematical Society 85-96
    • (2002) Inverse Problems, Image Analysis and Medical Imaging , pp. 85-96
    • De Mol, C.1    Defrise, M.2
  • 12
    • 84945763545 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions
    • Doan T., Litterman R., and Sims C.A. Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions. Econometric Reviews 3 (1984) 1-100
    • (1984) Econometric Reviews , vol.3 , pp. 1-100
    • Doan, T.1    Litterman, R.2    Sims, C.A.3
  • 14
    • 18044404766 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging
    • Fernandez C., Ley E., and Steel M.F.J. Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging. Journal of Econometrics 100 2 (2001) 381-427
    • (2001) Journal of Econometrics , vol.100 , Issue.2 , pp. 381-427
    • Fernandez, C.1    Ley, E.2    Steel, M.F.J.3
  • 15
    • 53649095693 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forni, M., Giannone, D., Lippi, M., Reichlin, L., 2007. Opening the black box: Structural factor models with large cross-sections, Working Paper Series 712, European Central Bank. Econometric Theory (forthcoming)
    • Forni, M., Giannone, D., Lippi, M., Reichlin, L., 2007. Opening the black box: Structural factor models with large cross-sections, Working Paper Series 712, European Central Bank. Econometric Theory (forthcoming)
  • 17
    • 1642324121 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The generalized dynamic factor model consistency and rates
    • Forni M., Hallin M., Lippi M., and Reichlin L. The generalized dynamic factor model consistency and rates. Journal of Econometrics 119 2 (2004) 231-255
    • (2004) Journal of Econometrics , vol.119 , Issue.2 , pp. 231-255
    • Forni, M.1    Hallin, M.2    Lippi, M.3    Reichlin, L.4
  • 20
    • 33750536645 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tests of conditional predictive ability
    • Giacomini R., and White H. Tests of conditional predictive ability. Econometrica 74 6 (2006) 1545-1578
    • (2006) Econometrica , vol.74 , Issue.6 , pp. 1545-1578
    • Giacomini, R.1    White, H.2
  • 21
    • 21244451040 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monetary policy in real time
    • Gertler M., and Rogoff K. (Eds), MIT Press
    • Giannone D., Reichlin L., and Sala L. Monetary policy in real time. In: Gertler M., and Rogoff K. (Eds). NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2004), MIT Press 161-200
    • (2004) NBER Macroeconomics Annual , pp. 161-200
    • Giannone, D.1    Reichlin, L.2    Sala, L.3
  • 22
    • 46949109976 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data
    • Giannone D., Reichlin L., and Small D. Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data. Journal of Monetary Economics 55 4 (2008) 665-676
    • (2008) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.55 , Issue.4 , pp. 665-676
    • Giannone, D.1    Reichlin, L.2    Small, D.3
  • 24
    • 53649103919 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Koop, G., Potter, S., 2003. Forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian Model Averaging, Staff Reports 163, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
    • Koop, G., Potter, S., 2003. Forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian Model Averaging, Staff Reports 163, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • 25
    • 84952504842 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting with bayesian vector autoregressions-five years of experience
    • Litterman R. Forecasting with bayesian vector autoregressions-five years of experience. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38
    • (1986) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.4 , pp. 25-38
    • Litterman, R.1
  • 26
    • 53649092573 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Onatski, A., 2006. Asymptotic distribution of the principal components estimator of large factor models when factors are relatively weak, Manuscript, Columbia University
    • Onatski, A., 2006. Asymptotic distribution of the principal components estimator of large factor models when factors are relatively weak, Manuscript, Columbia University
  • 27
  • 29
    • 53649109039 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., 2005a. An Empirical Comparison Of Methods For Forecasting Using Many Predictors, Manuscript. Princeton University
    • Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., 2005a. An Empirical Comparison Of Methods For Forecasting Using Many Predictors, Manuscript. Princeton University
  • 30
    • 53649095101 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., 2005b. Implications of dynamic factor models for VAR analysis, NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., 2005b. Implications of dynamic factor models for VAR analysis, NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • 33
    • 53649088685 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wright, J.H., 2003. Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging, International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)
    • Wright, J.H., 2003. Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging, International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.