Extension and Intensification of the Meso-American mid-summer drought in the twenty-first century

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 31, Issue 5, 2008, Pages 551-571

  Rauscher, Sara A ^a   Giorgi, Filippo ^a   Diffenbaugh, Noah S ^b   Seth, Anji ^c  

^a ABDUS SALAM INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS   (Italy)

^b PURDUE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT   (United States)

Author keywords

Central America; Climate change; Mid summer drought; North Atlantic subtropical high

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; DROUGHT; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SUMMER; TWENTIETH CENTURY; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

CENTRAL AMERICA;

EID: 50449105827     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-007-0359-1     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Adams DK, Comrie AC (1997) The North American monsoon. Bull Am Meteorl Soc 78:2197-2213
2. Aguilar E, Peterson TC, Obando PR, Frutos R, Retana JA, Solera M, Soley J, Garciá IG, Araujo RM, Santos AR, Valle VE, Brunet M, Aguilar L, Álvarez L, Bautista M, Castañoń C, Herrera L, Ruano E, Sinay JJ, Sánchez E, Oviedo GIH, Obed F, Salgado JE, Vázquez JL, Baca M, Gutiérrez M, Centella C, Espinosa J, Martínez D, Olmedo B, Espinoza CEO, Núñez R, Haylock M, Benavides H, Mayorga R (2005) Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961-2003. J Geophys Res Atmos 110:23107. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006119
3. Amador JA (1998) A climatic feature of the tropical Americas: The trade wind easterly jet. Top Meteor Oceanogr 5:1-13
4. Chou C, Neelin JD (2004) Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation. J Clim 17:2688-2701
5. Curtis S (2002) Interannual variability of the bimodal distribution of summertime rainfall over Central America and tropical storm activity in the far-eastern Pacific. Clim Res 22:141-146
6. Curtis S (2004) Diurnal cycle of rainfall and surface winds and the mid-summer drought of Mexico/Central America. Clim Res 27:1-8
7. Dai A (2006) Precipitation characteristics in eighteen coupled climate models. J Clim 19:4605-4630
8. Dai A, Trenberth KE (2004) The diurnal cycle and its depiction in the Community Climate System Model. J Clim 17:930-951
9. Enfield DB (1996) Relationships of inter-American rainfall to tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST variability. Geophys Res Lett 23:3305-3308., doi: 10.1029/96GL03231
10. Enfield DB, Alfaro EJ (1999) The dependence of Caribbean rainfall on the interaction of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. J Clim 12:2093-2103
11. Enfield DB, Mayer DA (1997) Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relation to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J Geophys Res 102:929-946. doi: 10.1029/96JC03296
12. Gamble D, Parnell D, Curtis S (2007) Spatial variability of the Caribbean mid-summer drought and relation to the North Atlantic high circulation. Int J Clim. doi: 10.1002/joc.1600
13. Giannini A, Kushnir Y, Cane MA (2000) Interannual variability of Caribbean rainfall, ENSO, and the Atlantic Ocean. J Clim 13:297-311
14. Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Quart J Roy Meteorol Soc 106:447-462
15. Giorgi F (2006) Climate change hot-spots. Geophys Res Lett 33:8707. doi: 10.1029/2006GL025734
16. Giorgi F, Bi X (2005) Updated regional precipitation and temperature changes for the 21st century from ensembles of recent AOGCM simulations. Geophys Res Lett 32:21715. doi: 10.1029/2005GL024288
17. Hastenrath S (1966) On general circulation and energy budget in the area of the Central American seas. J Atmos Sci 23:694-711
18. Hastenrath S (1967) Rainfall distribution and regime in Central America. Arch Meteor Geophys Bioklimatol Ser B 15:201-241
19. Hastenrath S (1976) Variations in low-latitude circulation and extreme climatic events in the tropical Americas. J Atmos Sci 33:202-215
20. Hastenrath S (1978) On modes of tropical circulation and climate anomalies. J Atmos Sci 35:2222-2231
21. Hastenrath S (2002) The intertropical convergence zone of the eastern Pacific revisited. Int J Clim 22:347-356
22. Inoue M, Handoh IC, Bigg GR (2002) Bimodal distribution of tropical cyclogenesis in the Caribbean: Characteristics and environmental factors. J Clim 15:2897-2905
23. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. A special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic N and lead authors). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 599
24. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds B, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorl Soc 77:437-472
25. Knaff JA (1997) Implications of summertime sea level pressure anomalies in the tropical Atlantic region. J Clim 10:789-804
26. Li JL, Zhang XH, Yu YQ, Dai FS (2004) Primary reasoning behind the double ITCZ phenomenon in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Adv Atmos Sci 21:857-867
27. Madden J, Julian PR (1994) Observations of the 40-50 day tropical oscillation: A review. Mon Weather Rev 122:814-837
28. Magaña V, Caetano E (2005) Temporal evolution of summer convective activity over the Americas warm pools. Geophys Res Lett 32:2803. doi: 10.1029/2004GL021033
29. Magaña V, Amador JA, Medina S (1999) The midsummer drought over Mexico and Central America. J Clim 12:1577-1588
30. Maloney ED, Hartmann DL (2000) Modulation of eastern North Pacific hurricanes by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J Clim 13:1451-1460
31. Mapes BE, Liu P, Buenning N (2005a) Indian monsoon onset and the Americas midsummer drought: Out-of-equilibrium responses to smooth seasonal forcing. J Clim 18:1109-1115
32. Mapes BE, Buenning N, Kang IS, Kiladis GN, Schultz DM, Weickmann KM (2005b) Strides, steps and stumbles in the march of the seasons (unpublished manuscript) http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/users/bmapes/ pagestuff/BAMS.AnnualCycle6.pdf
33. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins W, Friedlingstein P, Gaye A, Gregor J, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy J, Noda A, Raper S, Watterson I, Weaver A, Zhao ZC (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M, Miller H (eds) Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Chap. 10. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 747-846
34. Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: The observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100), Working Paper 55, Tyndall Centre
35. Neelin JD, Chou C, Su H (2003) Tropical drought regions in global warming and El Niño teleconnections. Geophys Res Lett 30(24):2275
36. Neelin JD, Münnich M, Su H, Meyerson JE, Holloway CE (2006) Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations. PNAS 103:6110-6115. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0601798103
37. Peña M, Douglas MW (2002) Characteristics of wet and dry spells over the Pacific side of Central America during the rainy season. J Clim 130:3054-3073
38. Portig W (1965) Central American rainfall. Geogr Rev 55:68-90
39. Rayner NA, Horton EB, Parker DE, Folland CK, Hackett RB (1996) Version 2.2 of the global sea-ice and sea surface temperature data set, 1903-1994, Climate Research Technical Note 74, Hadley Centre
40. Riehl H (1979) Climate and weather in the tropics. Academic Press, London
41. Rodwell MJ, Hoskins BJ (2001) Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons. J Clim 14:3192-3211
42. Romero-Centeno R, Zavala-Hidalgo J, Gallegos A, O'Brien JJ (2003) Isthmus of Tehuantepec wind climatology and ENSO signal. J Clim 16:2628-2639
43. Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon Wea Rev 115:1606-1626
44. Small RJO, de Szoeke SP, Xie SP (2007) The Central American mid-summer drought: Regional aspects and large-scale forcing. J Clim (in press)
45. Taylor MA, Enfield DB, Chen AA (2002) Influence of the tropical Atlantic versus the tropical Pacific on Caribbean rainfall. J Geophys Res Oceans 107. doi: 10.1029/2001JC001097
46. Trenberth KE, Jones P, Ambenje P, Bojariu R, Easterling D, Tank AK, Parker D, Rahimzadeh F, Renwick J, Rusticucci M, Soden B, Zhai P (2007) Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M, Miller H (eds) Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Chap 3. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 235-336
47. Vecchi GA, Soden BJ (2007) Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. Geophys Res Lett 34:L08702
48. Wang C (2007) Variability of the Caribbean low-level jet and its relations to climate. Clim Dyn 29:411-422
49. Wang C, Lee SK (2007) Atlantic warm pool, Caribbean low-level jet, and their potential impact on Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys Res Lett 34. doi: 10.1029/2006GL028579
50. Wang C, Lee SK, Enfield DB (2007) Impact of the Atlantic warm pool on the summer climate of the Western Hemisphere. J Clim 20:5021-5040
51. Waylen PR, Caviedes CN, Quesada ME (1996) Interannual variability of monthly precipitation in Costa Rica. J Clim 9:2606-2613
52. Wilmott CJ, Matsuura K (2001) Terrestrial air temperature and precipitation: Monthly and annual time series (1950-1999). http://www.climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/html_pages/README.ghcn_ts2.html
53. Xie P, Arkin PA (1996) Analysis of global monthly precipitation using gauge observation, satellite estimates and numerical model predictions. J Clim 9:840-858
54. Xie SP, Miyama T, Wang Y, Xu H, de Szoeke S, Small R, Richards K, Mochizuki T, Awaji T (2007) A regional ocean-atmosphere model for Eastern Pacific climate: Toward reducing tropical biases. J Clim 20:1504-1522