The birth of a bipolar party system or a referendum on a polarizing government? The October 2007 polish parliamentary election

Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics

Volumn 24, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 415-443

  Szczerbiak, Aleks ^a  

^a NONE

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 50249160606     PISSN: 13523279     EISSN: 17439116     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13523270802267955     Document Type: Article

References (162)

1. The Law and Justice party was formed in April 2001 by Jarosław Kaczyński to capitalize on the popularity of his twin brother, Lech, during his brief stint as justice minister towards the end of the 1997-2001 parliament. Law and Justice finished fourth in the 2001 election but when Lech Kaczyński became the first directly elected mayor of Warsaw, in October 2002, the party used this as a springboard for its successful 2005 parliamentary and presidential election campaigns.
2. Civic Platform was formed in January 2001 to capitalize on former finance and foreign minister Andrzej Olechowski's relative success as an independent liberal-conservative candidate in the 2000 presidential election. The liberal Donald Tusk became Civic Platform's sole leader in June 2003, the party having been previously led by a triumvirate that included Tusk and Olechowski.
3. The Democratic Left Alliance was formed at the beginning of the 1990s as an electoral coalition comprising various parties and groupings clustered round Social Democracy of the Polish Republic (Socjaldemokracja Rzeczpospolitej Polskiej, SdRP), the direct organizational successor to the Polish communist party. It won the 1993 parliamentary election and was the main government party between 1993 and 1997 but lost the 1997 election to Solidarity Electoral Action (Akcja Wyborcza Solidarność, AWS). In June 1999 it was transformed into a single, unitary party and won the 2001 parliamentary election easily in coalition with the smaller Labour Union (Unia Pracy, UP), although falling just short of a parliamentary majority. However, the party then suffered a massive slump in support to finish fourth in the 2005 parliamentary election. For more on the 2005 elections, see Radoslaw Markowski, 'The Polish Elections of 2005: Pure Chaos or a Restructuring of the Party System?', West European Politics, Vol.29, No.4 (2006), pp.814-32
4. Frances Millard, 'Poland's Politics and the Travails of Transition after 2001', Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.58, No.7 (2006), pp.1007-31
5. and Aleks Szczerbiak, '"Social Poland" Defeats "Liberal Poland"?: The September-October 2005 Polish Parliamentary and Presidential Elections', Journal of Communist Studies and Transitional Politics Vol.23, No.2 (2007), pp.203-32.
6. See Witold Gadomski, 'Widzeszanse dla Platformy', 4 Nov. 2005, at accessed 6 Nov. 2005.
7. Self-Defence was set up in the early 1990s as both a political party and farmers' union by Andrzej Lepper, one of the most controversial figures in Polish politics, who first came to prominence as leader of radical farmers' protests against debt foreclosures. Lepper returned to front-line politics during farmers' blockades at the beginning of 1999 and surprised observers when Self-Defence emerged as the third largest party in the 2001 parliamentary election. The party held on to its share of the vote in the 2005 parliamentary election, while Lepper finished a strong third in the presidential election, scoring an impressive 15 per cent of the vote.
8. The League of Polish Families was formed in the run-up to the 2001 parliamentary election as a coalition of various right-wing and clerical-nationalist parties. However, it was registered and contested the election as just one party (in order to be eligible for the lower 5 per cent threshold for parliamentary representation) and was reorganized subsequently as a single, unitary party; the League held its share of the vote in 2005.
9. See, for example, Igor Zalewski, 'Premier Dobrego Wrazënia', Rzeczpospolita, 28 Dec. 2005
10. Mariusz Janicki, 'IV RP czy IV PR?', Polityka, 7 Jan. 2006
11. Jarosław Murawski, 'Do tańca i rózańca', Rzeczpospolita 26 Jan. 2006
12. and Janina Paradowska, 'Studniówka Marcinkiewicza', Polityka, 11 Feb. 2006.
13. See Janina Paradowska, 'Pierwszy na pierwszego', Polityka, 15 July 2006.
14. See, for example, Dominik Uhlig and Wojciech Szacki, 'Koalicja szkodzi mniejszym', 14 Nov. 2006, at accessed 14 Nov. 2006.
15. The Peasant Party was formed in 1990 as the organizational successor to the former communist satellite United Peasant Party (Zjednoczone Stronnictwo Ludowe, ZSL). It was the junior coalition partner in Democratic Left Alliance-led governments between 1993 and 1997 (with its leader Waldemar Pawlak prime minister from October 1993 until February 1995) and 2001-3. The party's share of the vote had been in steady decline since 1993 and most commentators were surprised when it crossed the 5 per cent threshold to secure parliamentary representation in 2005.
16. See Piotr Smiłowicz, 'Porazka Samoobrony, kleska LPR', Rzeczpospolita, 14 Nov. 2006.
17. See, for example, Anna Materska-Sosnowska, 'Karty w rekach PiS', Newsweek, 16 Sept. 2007
18. and Jarosław Makowski, 'Skazani na PiS', Newsweek, 16 Sept. 2007.
19. See, for example, Agnieszka Rybak, 'Drugi PiS, bez Bliźniaków', Polityka, 4 March 2006.
20. See, for example, Jarosław Gowin, 'Rynek z religia, tradycja z edukacja, Rzeczpospolita, 28 April 2006
21. Michał Karnowski, 'Prawdziwie kuszaca oferta', Rzeczpospolita, 19 June 2006
22. Jacek Rostowski, 'Odrodzenie Platformy', Rzeczpospolita, 20 June 2006
23. Janusz Lewandowski, 'Platforma Obywatelska: Liberałowie i konserwatyści przeciw jakobinom', Rzeczpospolita, 17 May 2007
24. and Jacek Rostowski, 'Upadek wielkiego stratega', 25 Oct. 2007 at accessed 29 Oct. 2007. Interestingly, even as late as August 2007 a Civic Platform-Law and Justice coalition was still the first choice of a substantial number of voters: See Piotr Pacewicz, 'Sondaz "Gazety": Koalicje, jakich chcemy', 13 Aug. 2007 at accessed 16 Aug. 2007.
25. For a selection of critiques of Civic Platform's opposition strategy from a range of different perspectives see, for example, Janusz A. Majcherek, 'Opozycyjny marazm', Rzeczpospolita, 13 June 2006
26. Barbara Fedyszak-Radziejowska, 'Sukces umykajacy uwadze', Rzeczpospolita, 22 June 2006
27. Mirosława Grabowska, 'Wiecej tego samego', Rzeczpospolita, 15-16 July 2006
28. Mariusz Janicki and Wiesław Władyka, 'Partia NIE-PiS', Polityka 28 Oct. 2006
29. Janusz A. Majcherek, 'Zmarnowany rok opozycji', 31 Oct. 2006, at accessed 1 Nov. 2006
30. Witold Gadomski, 'PO na sukces musi zapracować', 9 Dec. 2006, at accessed 12 Dec. 2006
31. and Igor Zalewski, 'Gdzie sa tamci liberałowie', 10 April 2007, at accessed 16 April 2007.
32. Cf. Janina Paradowska, 'Opozycja na pozycji', Polityka, 20 Jan. 2007
33. and Igor Janke, 'Platforma przycisnela PiS do muru', Rzeczpospolita 29 May 2007.
34. See 'Centrolewica wreszcie razem', Rzeczpospolita, 4 Sept. 2006. The Democrats emerged from the Freedom Union (Unia Wolności, UW), a party formed in April 1995 through a merger of two 'post-Solidarity' liberal-centrist parties, the Democratic Union (Unia Demokratyczna, UD) and the Liberal Democratic Congress (Kongres Liberalno-Demokratyczna, KLD) that, between them, supplied three of Poland's first four post-1989 prime ministers: Tadeusz Mazowiecki, Jan Krzysztof Bielecki and Hanna Suchocka. Freedom Union was Solidarity Electoral Action's junior coalition partner in 1997-2000 but it failed to secure re-election to parliament in 2001 following a split when Donald Tusk led most of his liberal supporters out of the party to form Civic Platform. The Freedom Union repackaged itself as the Democrats at the beginning of 2005 but once again failed to cross the 5 per cent threshold for parliamentary representation.
35. See Rafał Kalukin, 'Lewica w poszukiwaniu miejsca i elektoratu', 14 Nov. 2005, at accessed 14 Nov. 2005.
36. See Agnieszka Sopińska and Bernadeta Waszkielewicz, 'Kłopoty finansowe PiS i SLD', Rzeczpospolita, 4-5 Aug. 2007.
37. The decision was actually overturned subsequently by the supreme court (although not in the case of the Democratic Left Alliance), but only after the election had been called, so Law and Justice could not have been aware of this when making its calculations as to whether or not to call a snap poll: See Eliza Olczyk, 'PiS obroniło swoja dotacje', Rzeszpospolita, 2 Oct. 1997.
38. See, for example, Marek Migalski, 'Społeczeństwo nie wstydzi sie juzÿ PiS', 5 Sept. 2007, at accessed 12 Sept. 2007,
39. and Konrad Ciesołkiewicz, 'Lekcja wyborczego profesjonalizmu', Rzeczpospolita, 12 Oct. 2007.
40. See, for example, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, 'Nie obiecujemy cudów - obiecujemy konkrety', 8 Oct. 2007, at accessed 9 Oct. 2007.
41. For good analyses of the politics of the 'układ' see Mariusz Janicki and Wiesław Władyka, 'Układ', Polityka, 1 April 2006
42. Edmund Wnuk-Lipiński, 'W sieci układu', Rzeczpospolita, 22-23 April 2006
43. and Rafał Matja, 'Układ w Polsce cały czas istnieje', 9 July 2007, at accessed 13 July 2007.
44. See CBOS, Szczegółowe oceny diałalności rzadu (Warsaw: CBOS, Sept. 2007), p.3; 9 per cent did not know. CBOS is the Centrom Balania Opinii Społecznej, a leading opinion polling organization.
45. See ibid., p.2; 7 per cent did not know. However, the evidence on this was mixed. For example, a TNS-OBOP survey in August 2007 found that 37 per cent of respondents thought that the level of corruption had actually increased under the Law and Justice-led government, 39 per cent felt that it had stayed the same, and only 16 per cent felt that it had been reduced (8 per cent did not know). Similarly, 33 per cent thought that the country was less just, 40 per cent that there had been no change in this respect, and only 16 per cent felt that it was more just (11 per cent did not know): See TNS/OBOP, Spór o ocene Polski za rzadów Prawa i Sprawiedliwości (Warsaw: TNS OBOP, Sept. 2007), p.2.
46. A TNS-OBOP survey in September 2007 also found that 87 per cent of respondents felt that corruption was still common in Poland, although that number had fallen from 94 per cent in August 2005 and those who felt that it was 'very common' fell from 67 per cent to 42 per cent: See TNS OBOP, Korupcja: Zmiana w latach 2005-2007 (Warsaw: TNS-OBOP Oct. 2007), p.2. TNS-OBOP is Ośrodek Badania Opinii Publicznej, part of the global TNS group.
47. See, for example, 'Premier: To najlepsze lata Polski od wielu dekad', 25 Aug. 2007, at accessed 27 Aug. 2007.
48. See CBOS, Szczegółowe oceny diałalności rzadu, p.2; 6 per cent did not know.
49. A September 2007 GfK Polonia poll conducted for Rzeczpospolita found that 56 per cent of respondents felt that Rokita's resignation would weaken Civic Platform, while only 22 per cent thought that would strengthen it (14 per cent did not know, 8 per cent said it would have no effect): See Dorota Kołakowska, 'Misja Gowina po odejściu Rokity', Rzeczpospolita, 17 Sept. 2007.
50. Cf. Jacek Kucharczyk, 'Spychanie Platformy na mielizne', Rzeczpospolita, 27 Sept. 2007. GfK Polonia is the Polish affiliate of the GfK market research group.
51. See CBOS, Stosunek do rzadu (Warsaw: CBOS, July 2007), p.2
52. and CBOS, Notowania rzadu Jarosława Kaczyńskiego pod koniec jego działalności (Warsaw: CBOS, Oct. 2007), p.1. The number who were indifferent ranged from 19 to 31 per cent and the number of 'don't knows' between 3 and 5 per cent.
53. See CBOS, Stosunek do rzadu, p.3
54. and CBOS, Notowania rzadu Jarosława Kaczyńskiego pod koniec jego działalności, p.3. The number of 'don't knows' ranged from 11 to 34 per cent.
55. See TNS-OBOP, Społeczne oceny rzadu, premiera i prezydenta we wrześniu 2007 r (Warsaw: TNS-OBOP, Sept. 2007), p.3. The number of 'don't knows' ranged from 7 to 11 per cent.
56. See ibid., p.5. The number of 'don't knows' ranged from 9 to 17 per cent, if one excludes the 30 per cent figure for his first month in office (August 2006).
57. See CBOS, Siła preferencji politycznych, alternatywy wyborcze i elektoraty negatywne (Warsaw: CBOS, Sept. 2007), p.6.
58. Ibid., p.10.
59. See, for example, Marek Migalski, 'Pieć grzechów głównych Platformy', Rzeczpospolita, 9 Oct. 2007
60. and Janina Paradowska, 'Tusku! Tusku!' Polityka, 13 Oct. 2007.
61. See 'Komentatory sazgodni: Debate wygrał Tusk', 13 Oct. 2007, at accessed 16 Oct. 2007
62. and 'Sondazë: Miazdz ace zwyciestwo Tuska', 15 Oct. 2007, at accessed 16 Oct. 2007.
63. For an interesting analysis, see Barbara Fedyszak-Radziejowska, 'Sztucki prostackie, ale skuteczne', Rzeczpospolita, 15 Oct. 2007.
64. Kaczyński acknowledged subsequently that he had made a mistake in agreeing to the debate: See Jarosław Kaczyński, 'Tych wyborów i tak byśmy nie wygrali', Rzeczpospolita, 26 Oct. 2007.
65. See, for example, Piotr Semka, 'Kampania ostatniej prostej', Rzeczpospolita, 15 Oct. 2007.
66. A June 2007 GfK Polonia survey for Rzeczpospolita found that 59 per cent of voters felt that Tusk was not an asset for his party (16 per cent 'definitely not') compared with only 42 per cent who felt that he was (12 per cent that he 'definitely was'); 9 per cent did not know: See Małgorzata Subotic', 'Donald Tusk zerka w strone Kaczyńskich i Rokity', Rzeczpospolita, 18 June 2007.
67. An October 2007 GfK Polonia survey for Rzeczpospolita also found that only 39 per cent of respondents expected Tusk to win the debate with Kaczyński, compared with 44 per cent who expected the Law and Justice leader to emerge victorious; 17 per cent did not know: See Agnieszka Sopińska and Bernadeta Waszkielewicz, 'Tusk celuje w dwie debaty', Rzeczpospolita, 5 Oct. 2007.
68. See Bernadeta Waszkielewicz and Anna Gielewska, 'Walka o antypisowski elektorat', Rzeczpospolita, 16 Oct. 2007.
69. See Eliza Olczyk and Agnieszka Sopińska, 'Ostre i decydujace starcie liderów', Rzeczpopospolita, 13-14 Oct. 2007.
70. For good analyses of Civic Platform's retreat from open economic liberalism, see Michał Karnowski, 'PO nauczyła sie wygrać', 22 Oct. 2007 at accessed 22 Oct. 2007,
71. and Piotr Zaremba, 'Osobisty sukces Tuska', 22 Oct. 2007, at accessed 22 Oct. 2007.
72. See Cezary Gmyz, 'Grupa posłanki Sawickiej', Rzceczpospolita, 17 Oct. 2007.
73. See, for example, 'Nasi przecziwnicy chca prywatyzować szpitale i zlikwidować CBA', 18 Oct. 2007, at accessed 22 Oct. 2007.
74. See, for example, Cezary Gmyz, 'Burza po taśmach Sawickiej', Rzeczpospolita, 18 Oct. 2007.
75. For an analysis of how the 'Sawicki affair' damaged the Law and Justice party, see Igor Janke, 'Przegrana PiS przypieczetowała posłanka Sawicka', Rzeczpospolita, 22 Oct. 2007.
76. For contrasting views on whether the Law and Justice party and the central anti-corruption bureau acted properly in this case, see Igor Janke, 'CBA zagrało dla Kaczyńskich', Rzeczpospolita, 18 Oct. 2007
77. and Bronisław Wildstein, 'Wszyscy wykorszystuja sprawe Sawickiej', Rzeczpospolita, 18 Oct. 2007.
78. See 'Polacy nie wierza w czyste intencje CBA', 17 Oct. 2007 at accessed 18 Oct. 2007; 24 per cent did not know.
79. See 'Polacy nie chca likwidacji CBA - wola by właczono je w inne struktury', Rzeczpospolita, 27-28 Oct. 2007; 8 per cent did not know.
80. See Jacek Wódz, 'Nie ma lewicy, jest kasta i wygoda', Newsweek, 25 Nov. 2007.
81. For example, a March 2007 GfK Polonia poll for Rzeczpospolita found that 51 per cent of respondents thought that Kwaśniewski's return to the Polish political scene would be beneficial (17 per cent 'definitely' so) and only 39 per cent thought that it would not (20 per cent 'definitely' not): See 'Kwaśniewski mile widziany', Rzeczpospolita, 28 March 2007.
82. For good analyses of Kwaśniewski's shortcomings during the election campaign see, for example, Ireneusz Krzemiński, 'Zmurszały, choć polakierowany Kwaćsniewski', 18 Oct. 2007, at accessed 18 Oct. 2007
83. and RafałMatja, 'KoniecKwaśniewskiego', 27 Oct. 2007 at accessed 28 Nov. 2007).
84. See CBOS, Zaufanie do polityków w trakcie kampanii wyborczej (Warsaw: CBOS, Oct. 2007), p.4.
85. See, for example, Cezary Łazarewicz, 'Ten trzeci', Polityka, 29 Sept. 2007
86. and Piotr Śmiłowicz and Andrzej Stankiewicz, 'Arka Kwaśniewskiego', Newsweek, 7 Oct. 2007.
87. See, for example, Witold Gadomski, 'Duch lewicy', 5 June 2007, at accessed 6 June 2007)
88. and Marek Migalski, 'Paradoksy Aleksandra Kwaśniewskiego', Rzeczpospolita, 22 Aug. 2007.
89. See CBOS, Siła preferencji politycznych, alternatywy wyborcze i elektoraty negatywne, p.10.
90. See, for example, 'Pawlak: PSL przywrćoci pokó j w polskiej polityce', 8 Sept. 2007, at accessed 12 Sept. 2007)
91. and Krystyna Naszkowska, 'Wieś woli Pawlaka od Kaczyńskiego', 22 Sept. 2007, at 25 Sept. 2007.
92. The League contested the election in an electoral alliance with the Right Wing of the Republic (Prawica Rzeczypospolitej, PR) party, a small Catholic-conservative breakaway from Law and Justice led by former Sejm speaker Marek Jurek, and (bizarrely, given the League's interventionist economic policies) with the radical free market Union of Real Politics (Unia Polityki Realnej, UPR) as the League of the Right Wing of the Republic (Liga Prawicy Rzeczypospolitej, which also had the Polish acronym 'LPR'): See Tomasz P. Terlikowski, 'Giertych, Jurek, Korwin-Mikke - trzech panów w wyborczej desperacji', Rzeczpospolita, 17 Sept. 2007.
93. For good analyses of the weakness of these two parties' campaigns, see Tomasz P. Terlikowski, 'Andrzej Lepper przeszedł do historii', Rzeczpospolita, 22 Oct. 2007
94. and Rafał Ziemkiewicz, 'Prawica z LPR zepchnieta na margines', Rzeczpospolita, 22 Oct. 2007.
95. See Piotr Pacewicz, 'Skad sie wzieło tyle wyborców?', 24 Oct. 2007, at accessed 29 Oct. 2007).
96. Law and Justice party leaders and strategists certainly felt this: See Agnieszka Sopińska, 'PiS: Jak przegralis'my to co mozna było wygrać', Rzeczpospolita, 23 Oct. 2007
97. and Jarosław Kaczyński, 'Tych wyborów i tak byśmy nie wygrali', Rzeczpospolita, 26 Oct. 2007.
98. The exit poll was conducted for Polish state TV's election night special by TNS-OBOP.
99. See Pacewicz, 'Skad sie wzieło tyle wyborców?'.
100. See Krzysztof Pankowski, 'Lewicowość-prawicowość: Deklaracje polityczne Polaków 1990- 1997', in Lena Kolarska-Bobińska and Radosław Markowski (eds.), Prognozy i wybory. Polska Demokracja '95 (Warsaw: Wydawnictwo Sejmowe, 1997), pp.69-108
101. Tadeusz Szawiel, 'Zróźnicowanie lewicowo-prawicowe i jego korelaty', in Radosław Markowski (ed.), Wybory Parlamentarne 1997: System partyjny, postawy polityczne, zachowanie wyborcze (Warsaw: ISP: PAN, 1999), pp.111-48
102. Tadeusz Szawiel, 'Podział lewica-prawica w polityce oraz w szerszym kontekscie kulturowym', in Mirosława Grabowska and Tadeusz Szawiel (eds.), Budowanie demokracji: Podziały społeczne, partie polityczne i społeczeństwo obywatelskie w postkomunistycznej Polsce (Warsaw: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, 2001), pp.216-66
103. Tadeusz Szawiel, 'Podział na lewice i prawice w Polsce po 1989 roku - jego sens i trwałość', in Radosław Markowski (ed.), System Partyjny i Zachowanie Wyborcze: Dekada Polskich Doświadczeń (Warsaw: ISP PAN, 2002). pp.178-216.
104. See Mirosława Grabowska, Podział postkomunistyczny: Społeczne podstawy polityki w Polsce po 1989 roku (Warsaw: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar, 2004).
105. See Krzysztof Jasiewicz, 'Portfel czy ròzÿaniec? Wzory zachowań wyborczych polaków w latach 1995-2001', in Radosław Markowski (ed.), System Partyjny i Zachowanie Wyborcze: Dekada Polskich Doświadczeń (Warsaw: ISP PAN, 2002), pp.75-100,
106. and Mirosława Grabowska, 'Religijnośćikościół a polityka w III Rzeczpospolitej', in Radosław Markowski (ed.), System Partyjny i Zachowanie Wyborcze: Dekada Polskich Doświadczeń (Warsaw: ISP PAN, 2002), pp.100-146.
107. See, for example, Aleks Szczerbiak, 'Interests and Values: Polish Parties and their Electorates', Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 51, No 8 (1999), pp.1401-32.
108. See Markowski, 'The Polish Elections of 2005', pp.827-9.
109. See Ewa Siedlicka, 'IPN publikuje swoje katologi', 26 Sept. 2007, at, http://gazetawyborcza.pl/gazetawyborcza/2029020,75478,4520959.html., accessed 26 Sept. 2007.
110. See, for example, Agnieszka Sopińska and Ewa K. Czaczkowska, 'PiS zabiega o wsparcie biskupów', Rzeczpospolita, 19 Sept. 2007.
111. See, for example, Jacek Hołub, 'Kampania wyborcza PiS w Radiu Maryja', 23 Sept. 2007 at, http://miasta.gazetapl/torun/ 2029020,35582,4514186.html., accessed 12 Oct. 2007, and Eliza Olczyk, 'PiS: Jestesmyładni, a PO brzydka', Rzeczpospolita, 9 Oct. 2007.
112. The Radio Maryja media empire also included the Trwam ('I persist') TV station and the Nasz Dziennik ('Our Daily') daily newspaper. Krzemiński has estimated, on the basis of 2001 data, that Radio Maryja listeners comprised up to 15 per cent of the electorate, and frequent listeners 9 per cent: See Ireneusz Krzemiński, 'Wbyór fundamentalny', Rzeczpospolita, 18 Oct. 2005.
113. See 'Ojciec Rydzyk w spocie PO', Rzeczpospolita, 15-16 Sept. 2007.
114. See Wojciech Załuska, 'Premiera wspiera brat prezydent, Tusk jedzie do Dziwisa', 19 Oct. 2007, at, http://gazetawyborcza.pl/ gazetawyborcza/2029020,75478,4591520.html., accessed 22 Oct. 2007.
115. For interesting, critical analyses of the Catholic Church's role in the 2007 election, see Tomasz P. Terlikowski, 'Kościół w szponach polityki', Rzeczpospolita, 9 Oct. 2007,
116. and Tomasz P. Terlikowski, 'Koścíoł wciaģnieţy w partyjna wojenke', Rzeczpospolita, 24 Oct. 2007.
117. Cf. Robert Necak, 'Syndrom niewiedzy', Rzeczpospolita, 6 Nov. 2007.
118. Considerations of how strong the link between religiosity and party bases of support was in the 2007 election must await more detailed statistical analysis of voting behaviour not available to the author at the time of writing; however, interestingly, a January 2007 CBOS survey found that support for the Law and Justice party had hardened among those attending Church services more than once a week since 2005, no doubt reflecting the party's almost complete absorption of the 'religious right' electorate: See CBOS, Poczucie reprezentatywności partii politycznych(Warsaw: CBOS, Feb. 2007), p.9.
119. For more on the evolution of party funding by the Polish state see Marcin Walecki, Money and Politics in Poland (Warsaw: Institute of Public Affairs, 2005),
120. and Aleks Szczerbiak, 'State Party Funding and Patronage in Post-1989 Poland', Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, Vol.22, No.3 (2006), pp.298-319.
121. See Eliza Olczyk, 'Dostali sie do Sejmu, teraz podziela sie pieniedzmi', Rzeczpospolita, 9 Nov. 2007.
122. See, for example, Agnieszka Sopińska and Bernadeta Waszkielewicz, 'Kampania wyborcza na bankowy kredyt', Rzeczpospolita, 29-30 Sept. 2007,
123. and Magdalena Lemańska, 'Kampania tania niesłychanie', Rzeczpospolita, 29 Oct. 2007.
124. See, for example, Pawel Śpiewak, 'Partie niczym kartele', Rzeczpospolita, 16-17 Dec. 2006.
125. See, for example, Bronisław Wildstein, 'LiD jest skazana na role trzeciej partii', Rzeczpospolita, 22 Oct. 2007;
126. Tomasz Zukowski, 'Demokraci i republikanie po polsku', Rzeczpospolita, 24 Oct. 2007;
127. Pawel Śpiewak, 'Lewica, prawica, gra: Polska scena polityczna po wyborach', 17, Nov. 2007 at, http://www.dziennik.pl/dziennik/europa/ article73606/Lewica_prawica_gra.html., accessed 28 Nov. 2007
128. and Piotr Zaremba, 'Przyczajona lewica czeka na swój czas', 22 Dec.2007 at, http://www.dziennik.pl/opinie/article100413/ Przyczajona_lewica_czeka_na_swoj_czas.html., accessed 1 Jan. 2008.
129. For earlier versions of this argument, see Igor Janke, 'Polska bez lewicy?', 25 April 2006 at, http://serwisy.gazeta.pl/wyborcza/ 2029020,34474,3301309.html., accessed 25 April 2006,
130. and Michał Karnowski, 'Prawdziwie kuszaća oferta', Rzeczpospolita, 19 June 2006.
131. Cf. Kinga Dunin, 'Bez lewicy ani rusz', 13 May 2006 at, http://serwisy.gazeta.pl/wyborcza/2029020,34474,3339331.html., accessed 15 May 2006).
132. See, for example, Rados3aw Markowski, 'Polak zdradza za kotara', Polityka, 1 Sept. 2007.
133. Figures for 2001 and 2005 are from Markowski, 'The Polish Elections of 2005', p.815; the 2007 figure is based on the author's calculations.
134. See Peter Mair, Party System Change: Approaches and Interpretations (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1997), p.182.
135. See Markowski, 'The Polish Elections of 2005', p.815.
136. Firmer judgements on the level of individual level volatility in 2007 must await statistical analysis of election survey data, not available to the author at the time of writing, although it is likely to be extremely high once again.
137. See Mark N. Franklin, Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition since 1945 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004).
138. See Susanne Jungerstam-Mulders, 'Parties and Party Systems in Post-Communist EU Member States: Comparative Aspects', in Susanne Jungerstam-Mulders (ed.), Post- Communist EU Member States: Parties and Party Systems (Aldershot: Ashgate, 2006), pp.1-22 (p.14).
139. See Peter Mair and Ingrid van Biezen, 'Party Membership in Twenty European Democracies', Party Politics, Vol.7, No.1 (2001), pp.5-21 (p.9).
140. See Loek Halman, 'The European Values Survey: A Third Wave', at, http://spitswww.uvt.nl/web/fsw/evs/documents/EVS_SourceBook.pdf., 2001, accessed 29 Sept. 2004.
141. See Aleks Szczerbiak, 'The New Polish Parties as Membership Organizations', Contemporary Politics, Vol.7, No.1 (2001), pp.57-69.
142. See European Commission, Eurobarometr 66. Raport Krajowy: Polska (Brussels: European Commission, 2006), p.9.
143. See CBOS, Partie bli̇ zse i dalsze - identifikacje partyjne polaków (Warsaw: CBOS, May 2007), p.2.
144. See Aleks Szczerbiak, 'Testing Party Models in East-Central Europe: Local Party Organization in Post-communist Poland', Party Politics, Vol.5, No.4 (1999), pp.525-37.
145. See Szczerbiak, 'State Party Funding and Patronage in Post-1989 Poland', pp.304-7.
146. For example, a GfK Polonia survey for Rzeczpospolita, published in February 2007, found that 28 per cent of voters would support such a hypothetical party compared with 26 per cent who would vote for Civic Platform and 18 per cent for Law and Justice: See 'Nowa partia mogłaby wygrać', Rzeczpospolita, 3-4 Feb. 2007.
147. See, for example, Krystyna Naszkowska, 'PSL sie ustatkowało', 30 Oct. 2007, at, http://gazetawyborcza.pl/gazetawyborcza/ 2029020,75515,4624105.html., accessed 31 Oct. 2007.
148. See Rafał A. Ziemkiewicz, 'Czy Tuskowi sie uda?',Rzeczpospolita, 27-28 Oct. 2007.
149. See Marek Migalski, 'Nowy Pawlak, stare PSL', Rzeczpospolita, 25 Oct. 2007.
150. For good analyses see, for example, Mariusz Janicki and Wiesław Władyka, 'W cieniu wielkiego brata', Polityka, 8 April 2006,
151. and Janina Paradowska, 'Rok nie wyrok', Polityka, 4 Nov. 2006.
152. The president's constitutional powers are very limited but he can hinder the new government, particularly through his ability to veto legislation that requires a 60 per cent majority (276 votes) in parliament to be overturned. Although Law and Justice does not have enough parliamentary votes on its own to form a 'blocking minority', Civic Platform and the Peasant Party have only 240 seats between them, so they require the support of the Left and Democrats to overturn a presidential veto. This cannot be taken for granted given that the centre-left is looking to differentiate itself from the new government in order to revive its electoral fortunes.
153. See Sean Hanley, Aleks Szczerbiak, Tim Haughton and Brigid Fowler, 'Sticking Together: Explaining Comparative Centre-Right Party Success in Post-communist Central and Eastern Europe', Party Politics, Vol. 14, No. 4 (2008), pp.407-13.
154. See, for example, Michał Karnowski, 'Zmiana regu3, nie tylko władzy', Rzeczpospolita, 2 Jan. 2006.
155. See, for example, Lewandowski, 'Platforma Obywatelska'.
156. See CBOS, Siła preferencji politycznych, alternatywy wyborcze i elektoraty negatywne, p.6.
157. See Pacewicz, 'Skad sie wzieło tyle wyborców?'
158. See Jacek Raciborski, 'Dogrywka ciekawsza od meczu', Rzeczpospolita 12 Oct. 2007
159. Janusz Czapiński, 'Wyborcy PiS zostali w domu', Rzeczpsopolita, 23 Oct. 2007
160. and Magdalena Środa, 'Koniec politycznego barbazyństwa', Rzeczpospolita, 24 Oct. 2007.
161. See Środa, 'Koniec politycznego barbazyństwa'
162. and Tomasz Lis, 'Lewicowe eldorado', 17 Dec. 2007 at, http://gazetawyborcza.pl/gazetawyborcza/2029020,75515,4768429.html., accessed 1 Jan. 2008.