Is there any evidence that syphilis epidemics cycle?

The Lancet Infectious Diseases

Volumn 8, Issue 9, 2008, Pages 577-581

  Breban, Romulus ^a   Supervie, Virginie ^a   Okano, Justin T ^a   Vardavas, Raffaele ^a   Blower, Sally ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; DYNAMICS; EPIDEMIC; EVIDENCE BASED PRACTICE; HUMAN; LONGITUDINAL STUDY; MORTALITY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROPHYLAXIS; SPECTROSCOPY; SYPHILIS;

EID: 49349101588     PISSN: 14733099     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(08)70203-2     Document Type: Note

References (41)

1. Grassly N.C., Fraser C., and Garnett G.P. Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States. Nature 433 (2005) 417-421
2. Murphy R.A. The emerging crisis of drug-resistant tuberculosis in South Africa: lessons from New York City. Clin Infect Dis 46 (2008) 1729-1732
3. Paolo W.F., and Nosanchuk J.D. Tuberculosis in New York city: recent lessons and a look ahead. Lancet Infect Dis 4 (2004) 287-293
4. Hethcote H.W., Lewis M.A., and van den Driessche P. An epidemiological model with a delay and a nonlinear incidence rate. J Math Biol 27 (1989) 49-64
5. Hethcote H.W., Stech H.W., and van den Driessche P. Nonlinear oscillations in epidemic models. SIAM J Appl Math 40 (1981) 1-9
6. Fine P.E., and Clarkson J.A. Measles in England and Wales-I: an analysis of factors underlying seasonal patterns. Int J Epidemiol 11 (1982) 5-14
7. Finkenstadt B.F., and Grenfell B.T. Times series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach. Appl Stat 49 (2000) 187-205
8. London W.P., and Yorke J.A. Recurrent outbreaks of measles, chickenpox and mumps. I. Seasonal variation in contact rates. Am J Epidemiol 98 (1973) 453-468
9. Soper H.E. The interpretation of periodicity in disease prevalence. J R Stat Soc 92 (1929) 34-73
10. Yorke J.A., and London W.P. Recurrent outbreaks of measles, chickenpox and mumps. II. Systematic differences in contact rates and stochastic effects. Am J Epidemiol 98 (1973) 469-482
11. Koelle K., Rodo X., Pascual M., Yunus M., and Mostafa G. Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature 436 (2005) 696-700
12. Pascual M., Rodo X., Ellner S.P., Colwell R., and Bouma M.J. Cholera dynamics and El Nino-southern oscillation. Science 289 (2000) 1766-1769
13. Koelle K., and Pascual M. Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: a nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera. Am Nat 163 (2004) 901-913
14. Blower S.M., and Chou T. Modeling the emergence of the "hot zones": tuberculosis and the amplification dynamics of drug resistance. Nat Med 10 (2004) 1111-1116
15. Blower S.M., McLean A.R., Porco T.C., et al. The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics. Nat Med 1 (1995) 815-821
16. Blower S.M., Small P.M., and Hopewell P.C. Control strategies for tuberculosis epidemics: new models for old problems. Science 273 (1996) 497-500
17. Porco T.C., and Blower S.M. Quantifying the intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. Theor Popul Biol 54 (1998) 117-132
18. Porco T.C., Small P.M., and Blower S.M. Amplification dynamics: predicting the effect of HIV on tuberculosis outbreaks. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 28 (2001) 437-444
19. Brown W.J., and Association A. Syphilis and other venereal diseases (1970), Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA
20. Pascual M., Bouma M.J., and Dobson A.P. Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidence. Microbes Infect 4 (2002) 237-245
21. Hoshen M.B., and Morse A.P. A weather-driven model of malaria transmission. Malar J 3 (2004) 32
22. Wearing H.J., and Rohani P. Ecological and immunological determinants of dengue epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103 (2006) 11802-11807
23. Dushoff J., Plotkin J.B., Levin S.A., and Earn D.J. Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101 (2004) 16915-16916
24. Rohani P., Earn D.J., and Grenfell B.T. Impact of immunisation on pertussis transmission in England and Wales. Lancet 355 (2000) 285-286
25. Duncan S.R., Scott S., and Duncan C.J. An hypothesis for the periodicity of smallpox epidemics as revealed by time series analysis. J Theor Biol 160 (1993) 231-248
26. Schnell D., Zaidi A., and Reynolds G. A time series analysis of gonorrhea surveillance data. Stat Med 8 (1989) 343-352
27. Hay S.I., Myers M.F., Burke D.S., et al. Etiology of interepidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 97 (2000) 9335-9339
28. Brownlee J. Periodicities of epidemics of measles in the large towns of Great Britain and Ireland. Proc R Soc Med (Sect Epidemiol State Med) 12 (1919) 77-117
29. Grenfell B.T., Bjornstad O.N., and Kappey J. Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414 (2001) 716-723
30. Broutin H., Guegan J.F., Elguero E., Simondon F., and Cazelles B. Large-scale comparative analysis of pertussis population dynamics: periodicity, synchrony, and impact of vaccination. Am J Epidemiol 161 (2005) 1159-1167
31. Cazelles B., Chavez M., Magny G.C., Guegan J.F., and Hales S. Time-dependent spectral analysis of epidemiological time-series with wavelets. J R Soc Interface 4 (2007) 625-636
32. Helfenstein U. Box-Jenkins modelling of some viral infectious diseases. Stat Med 5 (1986) 37-47
33. Zaidi A.A., Schnell D.J., and Reynolds G.H. Time series analysis of syphilis surveillance data. Stat Med 8 (1989) 353-362
34. Trottier H., Philippe P., and Roy R. Stochastic modeling of empirical time series of childhood infectious diseases data before and after mass vaccination. Emerg Themes Epidemiol 3 (2006) 9
35. Fenton K.A., Breban R., Vardavas R., et al. Infectious syphilis in high-income settings in the 21st century. Lancet Infect Dis 8 (2008) 244-253
36. Peterman T.A., Heffelfinger J.D., Swint E.B., and Groseclose S.L. The changing epidemiology of syphilis. Sex Transm Dis 32 10 suppl (2005) S4-S10
37. Gang H., Ditzinger T., Ning C.Z., and Haken H. Stochastic resonance without external periodic force. Phys Rev Lett 71 (1993) 807-810
38. Kuske R., Gordillo L.F., and Greenwood P. Sustained oscillations via coherence resonance in SIR. J Theor Biol 245 (2007) 459-469
39. Breban R., Vardavas R., and Blower S. Linking population-level models with growing networks: a class of epidemic models. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 72 (2005) 046110
40. Gillespie D.T. A general method for numerically simulating the stochastic time evolution of coupled chemical reactions. J Comput Phys 22 (1976) 403-434
41. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Syphilis elimination effort (SEE). The national plan to eliminate syphilis from the United States-executive summary. http://www.cdc.gov/STOPSYPHILIS/SEEexec2006.htm (accessed July 17, 2008).