Science in politics: A comparison of climate modelling centres

Minerva

Volumn 37, Issue 2, 1999, Pages 105-123

  Krueck, Carsten P ^a   Borchers, Jutta ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 4844223672     PISSN: 00264695     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1023/A:1004692000447     Document Type: Review

References (48)

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4. Krull, W. and Meyer-Krahmer, F., "Science, Technology and Innovation in Germany", in Krull, W. and Meyer-Krahmer, F. (eds), Science and Technology in Germany (London: Cartermill Publishing, 1996), p. 9-10.
5. Bray, D., Science and Susceptibility: A Historical Comparative Analysis of the Years of Cholera and the Years of Climate Change in Hamburg, GKSS report 98/E/61 (Geesthacht: GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht, 1998), p. 148.
6. DKRZ, Jahresbericht 1995 (Hamburg: Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, 1996), p. 71.
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8. Hasselmann, K., How Well Can We Predict the Climate Crisis? MPI-Report 57 (Hamburg: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, 1990), pp. 19-20.
9. MPI Met, Second Salzau Seminar (Hamburg: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Department of Climate Dynamics, 1994).
10. von Storch, H. and Hasselmann, K., "Climate Variability and Change", in Hempel, G. (ed.), The Ocean and the Poles (Jena: G. Fischer, 1996), p. 55.
11. MPI Met, Second Salzau Seminar, op. cit.
12. DKRZ, Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (Hamburg: Universität Hamburg, 1994), p. 42.
13. "Michael Otto stiftete Professur", uni hh. Berichte und Meinungen aus der Universität Hamburg, XXIX, 3 (July 1998), p. 17.
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16. Hegerl, G.C. et al., "Detecting Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change with an Optimal Fingerprint Method", Journal of Climate, IX (October 1996), pp. 2281-2306.
17. Hasselmann, K., "Klimaänderung mit einer geschätzten Wahrscheinlichkeit von 95% nachgewiesen" (Hamburg: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, press statement, 15 February 1995, www.dkrz.de/neuigkeiten).
18. IPCC, IPCC Second Assessment. Climate Change 1995; A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva: UN Environmental Program/World Meteorological Organisation, 1995), p. 22.
19. Details from Journal of Climate, IX (1996), p. 2281.
20. Hegerl, G.C. et al., "Multi-fingerprint Detection and Attribution Analysis of Greenhouse Gas, Greenhouse Gas-plus-aerosol and Solar-forced Climate Change", Climate Dynamics, XIII (1997), pp. 613-634.
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23. Hasselmann, K., "Climate-change Research after Kyoto", Physikalische Blätter, op. cit., p. 225.
24. Hasselmann himself stressed repeatedly that MPI/DKRZ were the first team to arrive at a quantitative statement of likelihood. See Hasselmann, K., "Klimaänderung mit einer geschätzten Wahrscheinlichkeit von 95% nachgewiesen", Physikalische Blätter, op. cit.;
25. and "Der Fingerabdruck des Klimas im Superrechner", Frankfurter Rundschau, 28 February, 1995.
26. Hadley Centre, The Hadley Centre (Bracknell: Hadley Centre, 1996).
27. The Hadley Centre (Ibid., p. 1.
28. Met. Office, Annual Reports and Accounts 1995-96, as reprinted in http://www.meto.gov.uk/ sec1/AR9596/sec1pg6m.html.
29. The Hadley Centre, op. cit., p. 24.
30. Tett, S., "Is Humankind Already Changing Global Climate?", in DETR and the Met. Office, Climate Change and Its Impacts: A Global Perspective. Some Results from the UK Research Programme (Bracknell: Met. Office, 1997), p. 5.
31. The Hadley Centre, op. cit., p. 3.
32. Mitchell, J.F.B. et al., "Climate Response to Increasing Levels of Greenhouse Gases and Sulphate Aerosols", Nature, CCCLXXVI (10 August, 1995), pp. 501-504.
33. Met. Office, Annual Reports and Accounts 1996-97, as reprinted in http://www.meto.gov.uk/ sec1/AR9697/sec1pg6h.html.
34. Mitchell, J.F.B. et al., "Climate Response", Met. Office, Annual Reports and Accounts 1996-97, as reprinted in op. cit., p. 501.
35. See Meehl, G.A., "Global Coupled General Circulation Models", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, LXXVI (1995), p. 951-957;
36. Shackley, S., "Adjusting to Policy Expectations in Climate Change Modeling: An Interdisciplinary Study of Flux Adjustments in Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models", Center for Global Change Science, Report No. 53 (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT, March 1998).
37. According to Meehl, 10 out of 16 of the world's leading GCM modelling centres did not use flux adjustment. See Meehl, G.A., "Global Coupled General Circulation Models", Adjusting to Policy Expectations in Climate Change Modeling: An Interdisciplinary Study of Flux Adjustments in Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models", op. cit.
38. The Hadley Centre, Adjusting to Policy Expectations in Climate Change Modeling: An Interdisciplinary Study of Flux Adjustments in Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models", op. cit., p. 8.
39. Carson, D.J., "Climate Modelling: Achievements and Prospects", Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, CXXV (January 1999), p. 1.
40. Met. Office, Excelling in Weather Services: Annual Report and Accounts 1997-98 (London: Stationery Office, July 1998), p. 29.
41. See also DETR, Global Atmosphere Research Programme: Annual Report 1996-97. Vol. I: Summary of Research (London: DETR, March 1998), p. 19.
42. 2 of the Hadley Centre Coupled AOGCM with and without Flux Adjustment", Geophysical Research Letter, XXIV, 15 (1997), p. 1944.
43. Met. Office, Excelling in Weather Services: Scientific and Technical Review 1997-98 (Bracknell: Met. Office, 1998), p. 62.
44. Excelling in Weather Services: Scientific and Technical Review 1997-98 (Ibid., p. 19.
45. Murphy, J.M., "The First Hadley Centre Transient Climate Change Experiment", in Hadley Centre, Progress Report 1990-1992 and Future Programme of Research. Fourth Report of the Research Coordinator (Bracknell: Hadley Centre, July 1993), p. 18.
46. Kerr, R.A., in Science, CCLXV (1994), p. 1528.
47. Kerr, R.A., in Science, CCLXXVI (1997), p. 1041.
48. Information from two interviewees. The model had only been used for a run of 300 years (which is too brief to claim stability) and depended on an artificial constraint (a global correction of the freshwater budget) to avoid drift. See Gent, P. and Bryan, F., "The NCAR Climate System Model", International WOCE Newsletter (April 1997), pp. 15-17.