A fuzzy classification technique for predicting species' distributions: Applications using invasive alien plants and indigenous insects

Diversity and Distributions

Volumn 10, Issue 5-6, 2004, Pages 461-474

  Robertson, Mark P ^a,c   Villet, Martin H ^a   Palmer, Anthony R ^b  

^a RHODES UNIVERSITY   (South Africa)

^b ARC Range and Forage Institute   (South Africa)

^c UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Biological invasions; Fuzzy envelope model; Fuzzy sets; Potential distribution models; Presence only data

Indexed keywords

CLASSIFICATION; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; FUZZY MATHEMATICS; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; PREDICTION;

CICADA; HEXAPODA; INSECTA; LANTANA; LANTANA CAMARA; PLATYPLEURA CAPENSIS; RICINUS COMMUNIS; SOLANUM; SOLANUM MAURITIANUM;

EID: 4644315742     PISSN: 13669516     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1366-9516.2004.00108.x     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Altman, D. (1994) Fuzzy set theoretic approaches for handling imprecision in spatial analysis. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 8, 271-289.
2. Austin, M.P. (1998) An ecological perspective on biodiversity investigations: examples from Australian eucalypt forests. Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden, 85, 2-17.
3. Austin, M.P. (2002) Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecological Modelling, 157, 101-118.
4. Austin, M.P., Cunningham, R.B. & Fleming, P.M. (1984) New approaches to direct gradient analysis using environmental scalars and statistical curve-fitting procedures. Vegetatio, 55, 11-27.
5. Austin, M.P. & Heyligers, P.C. (1991) New approaches to vegetation survey design: gradsect sampling. Nature conservation: cost effective biological surveys and data analysis (ed. by C.R. Margules and M.P. Austin), pp. 31-36. CSIRO, Canberra.
6. Austin, M.P. & Meyers, J.A. (1996) Current approaches to modelling the environmental niche of eucalypts: implications for management of forest biodiversity. Forest Ecology and Management, 85, 95-106.
7. Austin, M.P., Nicholls, A.O., Doherty, M.D. & Meyers, J.A. (1994) Determining species response functions to an environmental gradient by means of a beta function. Journal of Vegetation Science, 5, 215-228.
8. Austin, M.P., Nicholls, A.O. & Margules, C.R. (1990) Measurement of the realized niche, environmental niches of five Eucalyptus species. Ecological Monographs, 60, 161-177.
9. Austin, M.P. & Smith, T.M. (1989) A new model for the continuum concept. Vegetatio, 83, 35-47.
10. Baars, J.-R. (2002) Biological control initiatives against. Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) in South Africa: an assessment of the present status of the programme, and an evaluation of Coelocephalapion camarae Kissinger (Coleoptera: Brentidae) and Falconia intermedia (Distant) (Hemiptera: Miridae), two new candidate natural enemies for release on the weed. PhD Thesis, Rhodes University, Grahamstown.
11. Beerling, D.J., Huntley, B. & Bailey, J.P. (1995) Climate and the distribution of Fallopia japonica: use of an introduced species to test the predictive capacity of response surfaces. Journal of Vegetation Science, 6, 269-282.
12. Begon, M., Harper, J.L. & Townsend, C.R. (1990) Ecology - individuals, populations and communities, 2nd edn. Blackwell Scientific Publications, Oxford.
13. Bio, A.M.F., Alkemade, R. & Barendregt, A. (1998) Determining alternative models for vegetation response analysis: a nonparametric approach. Journal of Vegetation Science, 9, 5-16.
14. Burrough, P.A. (1989) Fuzzy mathematical methods for soil survey and land evaluation. Journal of Soil Science, 40, 477-492.
15. Busby, J.R. (1991) BIOCLIM - a bioclimatic analysis and prediction system. Nature conservation: cost effective biological surveys and data analysis (ed. by C.R. Margules and M.P. Austin), pp. 64-68. CSIRO, Melbourne.
16. Caithness, N. (1995) Pattern, process and the evolution of the African antelope (Mammalia: Bovidae). PhD Thesis, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
17. Carpenter, G., Gillison, A.N. & Winter, J. (1993) DOMAIN: a flexible modelling procedure for mapping potential distributions of plants and animals. Biodiversity and Conservation, 2, 667-680.
18. Chapman, A., Fairbanks, D.H.K. & Louw, J. (1994) Bioclimatic profiles for the potential afforestation of Pinus tecunumanii in the Eastern Transvaal. FOR-DEA 815, Division of Forest Science and Technology, CSIR.
19. Chicoine, T.K., Fay, P.K. & Nielsen, G.A. (1985) Predicting weed migration from soil and climate maps. Weed Science, 34, 57-61.
20. Dent, M.C., Lynch, S.D. & Schulze, R.E. (1989) Mapping mean annual and other rainfall statistics in southern Africa, 1st edn. Department of Agricultural Engineering, Pietermaritzburg.
21. Eastman, J.R. (1999) Guide to GIS and image processing, Vol. 2. Clark Laboratories, Worcester.
22. Erasmus, B.F.N., Kshatriya, M., Mansell, M.W., Chown, S.L. & van Jaarsveld, A.S. (2000) A modelling approach to antlion (Neuroptera: Myreleontidae) distribution patterns. African Entomology, 8, 157-168.
23. Fairbanks, D.H.K. (1994) Report on the use of GIS modelling within FORESTEK for forest suitability mapping, and the possible further need for development of this technology. FOR-I 473. Division of Forest Science and Technology, CSIR.
24. Fairbanks, D.H.K. & McKelly, D. (1994) Investigating fuzzy set classification methods for use in GIS decision support modelling to determine land suitability. FOR-I 515. Division of Forest Science and Technology, CSIR.
25. Fairbanks, D.H.K., Thomson, M.W., Vink, D.E., Newby, T.S., Van den Berg, H.M. & Everard, D.A. (2000) The South African land-cover characteristics database: a synopsis of the landscape. South African Journal of Science, 96, 69-82.
26. Ferrier, S. & Watson, G. (1997) An evaluation of the effectiveness of environmental surrogates and modelling techniques in predicting the distribution of biological diversity. Environment Australia, Canberra.
27. Fielding, A.H. & Bell, J.F. (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/ absence models. Environmental Conservation, 24, 38-49.
28. Franklin, J. (1995) Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients. Progress in Physical Geography, 19, 474-499.
29. Funk, V.A. & Richardson, K.S. (2002) Systematic data in biodiversity studies: use it or lose it. Systematic Biology, 51, 303-316.
30. Guisan, A., Theurillat, J.-P. & Kienast, F. (1998) Predicting the potential distribution of plant species in an alpine environment. Journal of Vegetation Science, 9, 65-74.
31. Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 135, 147-186.
32. Hastie, T.J. & Tibshirani, R. (1999) Generalized additive models. Chapman & Hall, London.
33. Hayward, T.L. (1997) Pacific ocean climate change: atmospheric forcing, ocean circulation and ecosystem response. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 12, 150-154.
34. Henderson, L. (1998) Southern African plant invaders atlas (SAPIA). Applied Plant Sciences, 12, 31-32.
35. Heuvelink, G.B.M. & Burrough, P.A. (1993) Error propagation in cartographic modelling using Boolean logic and continuous classification. International Journal of Geographical Information System, 7, 231-246.
36. Hill, K.E. & Binford, M.W. (2002) The role of category definition in habitat models: practical and logical limitations of using Boolean, indexed, probabilistic and fuzzy categories. Predicting species occurrences: issues of accuracy and scale (ed. by J.M. Scott, P.J. Heglund, M.L. Morrison, J.B. Haufler, M.G. Raphael, W.A. Wall and F.B. Samson), pp. 97-106. Island Press, Washington, D.C.
37. Hirzel, A.H., Hausser, J., Chessel D. & Perrin, N. (2002) Ecological niche factor analysis: how to compute habitat suitability maps without absence data? Ecology, 83, 2027-2036.
38. Hulme, P.E. (2003) Biological invasions: winning the science battles but losing the conservation war? Oryx, 37, 178-193.
39. Jackson, S.M. & Claridge, A. (1999) Climatic modelling of the distribution of the mahogany glider (Petaurus gracilis), and the squirrel glider (P. norfolcensis). Australian Journal of Zoology, 47, 47-57.
40. Jones, P.G. & Gladkov, A. (1999) Floramap - a computer tool for predicting the distribution of plants and other organisms in the wild. International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Columbia.
41. Lark, R.M. & Bolam, H.C. (1997) Uncertainty in prediction and interpretation of spatially variable data on soils. Geoderma, 77, 263-282.
42. Leathwick, J.R. & Whitehead, D. (2001) Soil and atmospheric water deficits and the distribution of New Zealand's indigenous tree species. Functional Ecology, 15, 233-242.
43. Lehmann, A., Overton, J.M. & Leathwick, J.R. (2002) GRASP: Generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions. Ecological Modelling, 157, 187-205.
44. Lindenmayer, D.B., Nix, H.A., McMahon, J.P., Hutchinson, M.F. & Tanton, M.T. (1991) The conservation of Leadbeater's possum, Gymnobelideus leadbeateri (McCoy): a case study of the use of bioclimatic modelling. Journal of Biogeography, 18, 371-383.
45. Loiselle, B.A., Howell, C.A., Graham, C.H., Goerck, J.M., Brooks, T. & Smith, K.G. & Williams, P.H. (2003) Avoiding pitfalls of using species distribution models in conservation planning. Conservation Biology, 17, 1591-1600.
46. Margules, C.R. & Austin, M.P. (1994) Biological models for monitoring species decline: the construction and use of data bases. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, London Series B, 344, 69-75.
47. MATLAB (2000) Using MATLAB (release 12), The MathWorks, Natick.
48. McCullagh, P. & Nelder, J.A. (1989) Generalized linear models, 2nd edn. Chapman & Hall, London.
49. Monserud, R.A. & Leemans, R. (1992) Comparing global vegetation maps with the Kappa statistic. Ecological Modelling, 62, 275-293.
50. Nix, H.A. (1986) A biogeographical analysis of Australian elapid snakes. Atlas of elapid snakes of Australia (ed. by R. Longmore), pp. 4-15. Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra.
51. Panetta, F.D. & Mitchell, N.D. (1991a) Bioclimatic prediction of the potential distributions of some weed species prohibited entry to New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Agricultural Research, 34, 341-350.
52. Panetta, F.D. & Mitchell, N.D. (1991b) Homoclime analysis and the prediction of weediness. Weed Research, 31, 273-284.
53. Pearce, J. & Ferrier, S. (2000) An evaluation of alternative algorithms for fitting species distribution models using logistic regression. Ecological Modelling, 128, 127-147.
54. Pearce, J. & Lindenmayer, D. (1998) Bioclimatic analysis to enhance reintroduction biology of the endangered helmeted honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix) in southeastern Australia. Restoration Ecology, 6, 238-243.
55. Robertson, M.P., Caithness, N. & Villet, M.H. (2001) A PCA-based modelling technique for predicting environmental suitability for organisms from presence records. Diversity and Distributions, 7, 15-27.
56. Robertson, M.P., Peter, C., Villet, M.H. & Ripley, B.S. (2003) Comparing models for predicting species' potential distributions: a case study using correlative and mechanistic predictive modelling techniques. Ecological Modelling, 164, 153-167.
57. Schoener, T.W. (1990) The ecological niche. Ecological concepts: the contribution of ecology to an understanding of the natural world (ed. by J.M. Cherrett), pp. 79-113. Blackwell Scientific Publications, Oxford.
58. Schulze, R.E., Maharaj, M., Lynch, S.D., Howe, B.J. & Melvil-Thomson, B. (1997) South African atlas of agrohydrology and climatology, 1st edn. Water Research Commission, Pretoria.
59. Sindel, B.M. & Michael, P.W. (1992) Spread and potential distribution of Senecio madagascariensis Poir. (fireweed) in Australia. Australian Journal of Ecology, 17, 21-26.
60. Skidmore, A.K., Gauld, A. & Walker, P. (1996) Classification of kangaroo habitat distribution using three GIS models. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 10, 441-454.
61. Walton, D.W., Busby, J.R. & Woodside, D.P. (1992) Recorded and predicted distribution of the Golden-tipped Bat Phoniscus papuensis (Dobson, 1878) in Australia. Australian Zoologist, 28, 1-4.
62. Wessels, K.J., Reyers, B., Kruger, M. & van Jaarsveld, A.S. (2000) Incorporating land cover information into regional biodiversity assessments in South Africa. Animal Conservation, 3, 67-79.
63. Zadeh, L.A. (1965) Fuzzy sets. Information and Control, 8, 338-353.
64. Zadeh, L.A. (1987) Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility. Fuzzy sets and applications: selected papers by LA Zadeh (ed. by R.R. Yager, S. Ovchinnikov, R.M. Tong and H.T. Nguyen), pp. 193-218. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
65. Zaniewski, A.E., Lehmann, A. & Overton, J.McC. (2002) Predicting species spatial distributions using presence-only data: a case study of native New Zealand ferns. Ecological Modelling, 157, 261-280.