The climate in Burgundy and elsewhere, from the fourteenth to the twentieth century

Interdisciplinary Science Reviews

Volumn 33, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 10-24

  Le Roy Ladurie, Emmanuel ^a   Daux, Valerie ^a  

^a LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

GRAPE HARVEST; GROWING SEASON; LATE MAUNDER MINIMUM; LITTLE ICE AGE; MAUNDER MINIMUM; SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES; TWENTIETH CENTURY; WARMER CONDITIONS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; FOOD SUPPLY;

HARVESTING;

EID: 46349107302     PISSN: 03080188     EISSN: 17432790     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1179/030801808X260013     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (81)

1. N. Meier, T. Rutishauser, C. Pfister, H. Wanner and J. Luterbacher: 'Grape harvest dates as a proxy for Swiss April to August temperature reconstructions back to ad 1480', Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34, L20705.
2. W. Behringer, H. Lehmann and C. Pfister: Cultural Consequences of the 'Little Ice Age', 31-148; 2005,
3. Göttingen, Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht; also H. Holzhauser et al.: 'Glacier and lake-level variations in west-central Europe over the last 3500 years', The Holocene, 2005, 15, 789-801.
4. A. Angot: 'Etude sur les vendanges en France', in Annales du Bureau Central Météorologique de France; 1883,
5. Paris, E. Mascart; J.-P. Legrand: 'Fluctuations mété orologiques, vendanges et activité solaire', La Mété orologie, 1978, VI, (12), 73-89;
6. M. R. Danguy and M. C. Aubertin: Les grands vins de Bourgogne; 1978, Marseille, Laffitte Reprints.
7. B. Guenée: La folie de Charles VI; 2004, Paris, Perrin.
8. H. Holzhauser et al.: 'Glacier and lake-level variations', p. 791, Fig. 2 (see Note 2);
9. E. Le Roy Ladurie: Histoire humaine et comparée du climat, esp. pp. 100-104, 157, 183-190; 2004, Paris, Fayard.
10. P. Alexandre: Le climat en Europe au Moyen Age, 568-571; 1987, Paris, EHESS; similarly, for A. F. V. van Engelen, the summer of 1420 was the hottest or one of the hottest of the last millennium in the Netherlands
11. (A. F. V. van Engelen, J. Buisman and F. Ijnsen: 'A millennium of weather, winds and water in the Low Countries', in History and Climate: Memories of the Future?, (ed. P. Jones et al.), 101-124, at 111; 2001, New York, NY, Kluwer).
12. P. Alexandre: Le climat en Europe au Moyen Age (see Note 6).
13. Cf. E. Le Roy Ladurie: Histoire humaine et comparée du climat, pp. 141ff. (see Note 5). In what follows in the present article, climate events, scarcities and others, are taken from information to be found in this recent work by E. Le Roy Ladurie.
14. S. Kaplan: Le complot de famine, 9; 1982, Paris, Armand Colin.
15. C. Pfister, R. Brazdil and R. Glaser: Climatic Variability in Sixteenth-Century Europe; 1999, Dordrecht, Kluwer.
16. I. Chuine, P. Yiou, N. Viovy, B. Seguin, V. Daux and E. Le Roy Ladurie: 'Historical phenology: grape ripening as a past climate indicator', Nature, 2004, 432, 289-290.
17. For some time, these forty years have been cited as cold, cool and near-glacial (E. Le Roy Ladurie: Times of Feast, Times of Famine: A History of Climate since the Year 1000; 1974/1988, New York, NY, Doubleday (first published in French as Histoire du clmat depuis l'An Mil; 1967/1983/2004, Paris, Flammarion)). On the basis of thermal reconstructions by the authors, these summers are on average at least 1°C colder than those of the reference period 1971-2000. As for the last five hundred years, 1560-1600 appears to be the coldest forty-year period on record in the Ile-de-France.
18. In the winter of 1572/3 the rivers Elbe, Saale and Weser were ice-bound in February, as was part of Lake Constance. According to the long series of Luterbacher, this winter ranks among the seven coldest winters of the last half millennium. Van Engelen refers to it in the Netherlands as 'very severe' (A. F. V. van Engelen et al.: 'A millennium of weather', pp. 106-112 (see Note 6)).
19. See also M. V. Shabalova and A. F. V. van Engelen: 'Evaluation of a reconstruction of temperature in the Low Countries AD 764-1998', Climatic Change, 2003, 58, 219-242;
20. J. Luterbacher et al.: 'Reconstruction of sea level pressure fields over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500', Climate Dynamics, 2002, 18, 550-551.
21. Again for the year 1573, 'The reconstruction by "back projection" of winter temperatures for the Paris area taken in the broadest sense, shows that the winter (1572-1573) was 5°C colder than the average winter of the reference period 1971 to 2000. In the whole series (suggested for this reconstruction), it appears that the winter 1572-1573 was one of the seven coldest of the last half millennium. The summer of 1573 in Ile-de-France was rather cool with a temperature 3.5°C lower than those of the average temperature of the reference period.' (J. Luterbacher, D. Dietrich, E. Xoplaki, M. Grosjean and H. Wanner: 'European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500', Science, 2004, 303, 1499-1503).
22. E. Le Roy Ladurie: Histoire humaine et comparée du climat, pp. 222-223 (see Note 5).
23. W. Shakespeare: A Midsummer Night's Dream, Act II, Scene 1. Following the very cool summers of 1596 and 1597, grape-picking began on 5 and 12 October respectively, according to E. Le Roy Ladurie: Histoire du Climat depuis l'An Mil (see Note 12). Similarly, 'temperatures reconstructed for the Ile-de-France show that these two summers were on average 2.5°C colder than in the course of the three decades from 1971 to 2000' (J. Luterbacher et al. (in preparation)).
24. For reasons of climatic evidence and others, some specialists in climate fluctuations no longer concentrate, so far as the Maunder is concerned, on the period 1645-1715, while this is for J. A. Eddy a Maunder classic (J. A. Eddy: 'Maunder minimum', Science, 1976, 192, 1189-1202).
25. Rather they privilege the years 1675-1715, henceforth described by specialists, significantly, as the 'Late Maunder Minimum', culminating in terms of cold in the course of the 1690s (see J. Luterbacher et al.: The Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715)', Climatic Change, 2001, 49, 441-462;
26. E. Xoplaki et al.: 'European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium', Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32, L15713;
27. J. Luterbacher et al.: 'European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends and extremes since 1500', Science, 2004, 303, 1499-1503).
28. R. Dion: Histoire de la vigne el du vin en France des origines au XIXe siède, esp. pp. 486-491, 503-507, 532ff, 540ff, 564ff, 576ff; 1959, Paris.
29. H. J. Zumbühl: Die Schwankungen der Grindelwaldgletscher in den historischen Bild- und Schriftquellen des 12. bis 19. Jahrhunderts. Ein Beitrag zur Gletschergeschichte und Erforschung des Alpenraumes; 1980, Basel/Boston/Stuttgart, Birkhäuser;
30. C. Pfister: Klimageschichte der Schweiz, 1525-1860, 146; 1985, Bern, Haupt.
31. See also D. Steiner et al.: 'The application of a non-linear back-projection neural network to study the mass balance of Gross Aletschgletscher', Journal of Glaciology, 2005, 51, 313-323.
32. Concerning the three years 1636-38, '[r]econstruction of summer temperatures for the Ile-de-France shows that the three summers were on average warmer (+0.7°C) as compared to 1971-2000' (J. Luterbacher et al. (in preparation)).
33. A. H. J. de Kraker: unpublished work on the climatic crisis of 1661 in the Netherlands, 2003 (made available by author).
34. E. Le Roy Ladurie: Histoire du climat, p. 72 (see Note 12). 'After such a long drought, everything could burn even stones' (S. Pepys: Journal, 2 September 1666). Grape-picking in 1666 was indeed precocious (E. Le Roy Ladurie: ibid., p. 298).
35. M. Lachiver: Les années de misère, 72-95; 1991, Paris, Fayard ('Ten years of respite, fine weather, fine crops').
36. C. Pfister: Klimageschichte der Schweiz, p. 146 (see Note 19).
37. M. Lachiver: Les annés de misère, pp. 72-95 (see Note 23). As for the years 1676-86: 'In the Ile-de-France summer temperature reconstruction this period was around 0.25°C warmer than the long term mean. However, the summers 1682 and 1685 were cooler' (J. Luterbacher et al. (in preparation)).
38. Concerning the cooler summer of 1673-75, J. Luterbacher et al. (in preparation) suggest that the reconstruction for the Ile-de-France 'points to cooler conditions'.
39. Might this relate to the eruption of Gamkonora in Indonesie in spring 1673, with the time-lag usual in such circumstances?
40. According to both J. Luterbacher et al.: 'European seasonal and annual temperature variability' (see Note 17) and
41. E. Xoplaid et al.: 'European spring and autumn temperature variability' (see Note 17), the cooling influence of LMM would have been felt more keenly in winter, spring and summer.
42. At least four hundred thousand from dysentery, others from smallpox, and so on (M. Lachiver: Les années de misère, pp. 242-262 (see Note 23)).
43. M. Lachiver: Les années de misère, pp. 406-419 (see Note 23).
44. Comparing the appointments of wine wardens, linked to the genuine ripening of grapes, and the somewhat later dates of grape-picking between 1645 and 1721 (E. Le Roy Ladurie: Les Paysans du Languedoc, Vol. 2, p. 518, Fig. 1; 1966, Paris, SEPEM).
45. J. Luterbacher et al.: 'European seasonal and annual temperature variability' (see Note 17); E. Xoplaki et al.: 'European spring and autumn temperature variability' (see Note 17).
46. C. Pfister: Agrarkonjunktur und Witterungs verlauf in westlichen Schweizer Mittelland zur Zeit der Ökonomischen Patrioten 1755-1797; 1975, Bern, Lang.
47. E. Labrousse: La crise de l'économie française à la fin de l'Ancien Régime, 207-628; 1990, Paris, PUF.
48. R. Laurent: Les vignerons de la «Côte d'Or» au XIXe siède, 107-168; 1958, Dijon, Bemigaud.
49. C. Vincent et al.: 'Solving the paradox of the end of the Little Ice Age in the Alps', Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32, L09706.
50. The river Seine was at a very low minimum level on 21 and 23 September 1811, as a result of a very dry summer, although subject to storm and rainfall instability (F. Arago: Sämtliche Werke, Vol. 16, 425; 1860, Leipzig, W. G. Hankel).
51. J. Luterbacher et al. (in preparation): 'Indeed, the summer temperature for the larger Paris area was 3.1°C cooler than the 1971-2000 mean. It was the seventh coldest summer in the context of the last five hundred years';
52. see also C. Pfister: Wetternachhersage, 153-155; 1999, Bern, Haupt.
53. There is an excellent chapter on this 'crisis' of 1811, which had repercussions into 1812, in T. Lentz: Nouvelle histoire du Premier Empire, Vol. II (L' effondrement du Système Napoléonien 1810-1814); 2004, Paris, Fayard.
54. R. B. Stothers: 'The Great Tambora eruption in 1815 and its aftermath', Science, 1984, 224, 1191-1198.
55. A. F. V. van Engelen et al.: 'A millennium of weather', p. 113 (see Note 6).
56. See also M. V. Shabalova and A. F. V. van Engelen: 'Evaluation of a reconstruction of temperature' (see Note 13).
57. K. R. Briffa et al.: 'Large-scale temperature inferences from tree-rings: a review', Global and Planetary Change, 2004, 40, 11-26.
58. Similarly, according to J. Luterbacher et al. (in preparation): 'Indeed, also in the Paris area this 1846 summer was very warm with 1.85°C above the long term mean'. According to V. Slonosky, the summer of 1846 was also dry in Paris (V. C. Slonosky: 'Wet winters, dry summers? Three centuries of precipitation data from Paris', Geophysical Research Letters, 2002, 29, 1895).
59. 'Cereal and potato crops from 1815 to 1876: a comparative summary of the evolution of different crops', BNF copy, folio 543, pp. 456-458.
60. E. Labrousse: Aspects de la crise de l'économie française au milieu du XIXe siècle; 1956, La Roche-sur-Yon, Bibliothèque de la Révolution de 1848; K. Labrousse: '1848-1830-1789. Comment naissent les révolutions', in Actes du congrès historique du centenaire de la Révolution de 1848, 1-20, esp. pp. 9-15; 1948, Paris, Presses universitaires de France. In practice all recent historians concerned with this revolution point among other factors to its economic causes.
61. A. F. V. van Engelen et al.: 'A millennium of weather' (see Note 6);
62. see also R. H. Hubscher: L'Agriculture et la société rurale dans le Pas-de-Calais, du milieu du XIXe siècle à 1914, Vol. 1, 176; 1980, Arras, Mémoires de la Commission Dé partementale des Monuments Historiques du Pas-de-Calais, and T. Horii: 'Crise alimentaire 1853-1856 à Paris', Revue historique, 1984, 552, 375-401.
63. C. Pfister: Klimageschichte der Schweiz, Vol. 1, p. 146 (see Note 19).
64. C. Vincent et al.: 'Solving the paradox' (see Note 36). That being said, temperature and rainfall in other seasons also play a role in this first recession of Alpine glaciers from 1860 to 1900.
65. E. Le Roy Ladurie: Histoire du climat, p. 72 (see Note 12);
66. A. Labrijn: 'Het klimaat van Nederland gedurende de laatste twee en een halve eeuw', Koninklijk Nederlandsch Meteorologisch Instituut, Mededeelingen en Verhandelingen, 1945, 49, 91;
67. G. Manley: 'The mean temperature of central England, 1698-1952', Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1953, 79, 242-261
68. (see also the later paper G. Manley: 'Central England temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973', Quarterly Journal of theRoyal Meteorological Society, 1974, 100, 389-405).
69. A. F. V. van Engelen et al.: 'A millennium of weather', p. 113 (see Note 6).
70. See also E. Xoplaki et al.: 'European spring and autumn temperature variability' (see Note 16).
71. A. F. V. van Engelen et al.: 'A millennium of weather', p. 113 (see Note 6).
72. According to Labrijn's figures for the Netherlands, subject to corrections, the thermal average for December 1879 was -3.5°C (A. Labrijn: 'Het klimaat van Nederland' (see Note 48)). Renou provides the much lower December 1879 figure for Paris of -7.6°C (M. E. Renou: 'Etude sur le climat de Paris', Annales du Bureau Central Météorologique de France, 1887, Vol. I: Mémoires, B213).
73. C. Pfister: Klimageschichte der Schweiz, Fig. 1/30 (see Note 19).
74. Statistique agricole annuelle, p. 458, Table 97; 1945, Paris, Ministère de l'Agriculture.
75. J. Luterbacher et al.: 'European seasonal and annual temperature variability' (see Note 14).
76. G. Manley: 'The mean temperature of central England' (see Note 48).
77. Statistique agricole annuelle, pp. 526, 458 (see Note 53).
78. A. F. V. van Engelen et al.: 'A millennium of weather', p. 113 (see Note 6).
79. Statistique agricole annuelle, p. 460 (see Note 53).
80. G. Séchet: Quel temps? Chroniques de la météo de 1900 à nos jours, 24; 2004, Paris, Hermé.
81. Statistique, agricole annuelle, p. 458, Table 97, column 4 (see Note 53).