Observed structure, evolution, and potential intensity of category 5 hurricance Isabel (2003) from 12 to 14 September

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 136, Issue 6, 2008, Pages 2023-2046

  Bell, Michael M ^a,b   Montgomery, Michael T ^c,d  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^b Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences   (United States)

^c NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL   (United States)

^d NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERICS; DOPPLER RADAR; ESTIMATION; RADAR; TROPOSPHERE; WIND POWER;

A-PRIORI; ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER; AXISYMMETRIC; CORE STRUCTURES; DATA SETS; DOPPLER; EDDY FLUXES; ENERGY SOURCING; ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONING; EYE WALL; HIGH RESOLUTIONS; HURRICANE ISABEL; IN-SITU; IN-SITU DATA; INNER CORE; LATENT HEAT FLUX; MOMENTUM EXCHANGE; OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS; POWER SOURCING; SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TROPICAL CYCLONE; UPPER BOUNDS; WIND SPEEDS;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; BOUNDARY LAYER; DATA SET; DOPPLER RADAR; ENTROPY; HURRICANE ISABEL 2003; LATENT HEAT FLUX; SATELLITE DATA; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TROPICAL CYCLONE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; VORTICITY; WIND VELOCITY;

FABIA;

EID: 44349111494     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2007MWR1858.1     Document Type: Article

References (75)

1. Aberson, S. D., M. T. Montgomery, M. Bell, and M. Black, 2006: Hurricane Isabel (2003): New insights into the physics of intense storms. Part II: Extreme localized wind. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1349-1354.
2. Barnes, S. L., 1973: Mesoscale objective analysis using weighted time-series observations. NOAA Tech. Memo. ERL NSSL-62, 60 pp.
3. Bell, M. M., 2006: Observed structure, evolution, and potential intensity of category five Hurricane Isabel (2003) from 12-14 September. M.S. thesis, Dept. of Atmospheric Science. Colorado State University, 98 pp.
4. Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 1998: Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 65, 233-240.
5. Black, P. G., and Coauthors, 2007: Air-sea exchange in hurricanes: Synthesis of observations from the coupled boundary layer air-sea transfer experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 357-374.
6. Bolton, D., 1980: The computation of equivalent potential temperature. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1046-1053.
7. Braun, S. A., 2002: A cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991): Storm structure and eyewall buoyancy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1573-1592.
8. Camp, J. P., 1999: Hurricane maximum intensity: Past and present. M.S. thesis, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, 147 pp.
9. Camp, J. P., and M. T. Montgomery, 2001: Hurricane maximum intensity: Past and present. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1704-1717.
10. Chen, Y., and M. K. Yau, 2001: Spiral bands in a simulated hurricane. Part I: Vortex Rossby wave verification. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2128-2145.
11. Cram, T. A., J. Persing, M. T. Montgomery, and S.A. Braun, 2007: A Lagrangian trajectory view on transport and mixing processes between the eye, eyewall, and environment using a high-resolution simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1835-1856.
12. DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan, 1994: Sea surface temperature and the maximum intensity of Atlantic tropical cyclones. J. Climate, 7, 1324-1334.
13. DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan, J. A. Knaff, M. Mainelli, and L. K. Shay, 2005: Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Wea. Forecasting, 20, 531-543.
14. Donelan, M. A., B. K. Haus, N. Reul, W. J. Plant, M. Stiassnie, H. C. Graber, O. B. Brown, and E. S. Saltzman, 2004: On the limiting aerodynamic roughness of the ocean in very strong winds. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18306, doi:10.1029/2004GL019460.
15. Drennan, W. M., J. A. Zhang, J. R. French, C. McCormick, and P. G. Black, 2007: Turbulent fluxes in the hurricane boundary layer. Part II: Latent heat flux. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1103-1115.
16. Eastin, M. D., P. G. Black, and W. M. Gray, 2002: Flight-level instrument wetting errors in hurricanes, Part I: Observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 825-841.
17. Eastin, M. D., P. G. Black, and W. M. Gray, 2005: Buoyancy of convective vertical motions in the inner core of intense hurricanes. Part II: Case studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 209-227.
18. Emanuel, K. A., 1986: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 585-604.
19. Emanuel, K. A., 1988: The maximum intensity of hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1143-1155.
20. Emanuel, K. A., 1991: The theory of hurricanes. Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 23, 179-196.
21. Emanuel, K. A., 1995: Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange coefficients and a revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3969-3976.
22. Emanuel, K. A., 1997: Some aspects of hurricane inner-core dynamics and energetics. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1014-1026.
23. Emanuel, K. A., 2005: Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes. Oxford University Press, 285 pp.
24. Emanuel, K. A., C. DesAutels, C. Holloway, and R. Korty, 2004: Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 843-858.
25. Fairall. C. W., E. F. Bradley, J, E. Hare. A. A. Grachev, and J. B. Edson, 2003: Bulk parameterization of air-sea fluxes: Updates and verification for the COARE algorithm. J. Climate, 16, 571-591.
26. Frank, W. M., 1984: A composite analysis of the core of a mature hurricane. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 2401-2420.
27. Franklin, J., S. J. Lord, S. E. Feuer, and F. R. Marks Jr., 1993: The kinematic structure of Hurricane Gloria (1985) determined from nested analyses of dropwindsonde and Doppler radar data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2433-2451.
28. Franklin, J., M. L. Black, and K. Valde, 2003: GPS dropwindsonde wind profiles in hurricanes and their operational implications. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 32-44.
29. French, J. R., W. M. Drennan, J. A. Zhang, and P. G. Black, 2007: Turbulent fluxes in the hurricane boundary layer. Part I: Momentum flux. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1089-1102.
30. Gray, W. M., 1991: Comments on "Gradient balance in tropical cyclones." J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 1201-1208.
31. Hawkins, H. F., and D. T. Rubsam, 1968: Hurricane Hilda, 1964. II. Structure and budgets of the hurricane on October 1, 1964. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 617-636.
32. Hawkins, H. F., and S. M. Imbembo, 1976: The structure of a small, intense hurricane - Inez 1966. Mon. Wea. Rev., 104, 418-442.
33. Hobgood, J. S., 2003: Maximum potential intensities of tropical cyclones near Isla Socorro, Mexico. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 1129-1139.
34. Hock, T. F., and J. L. Franklin, 1999: The NCAR GPS dropwindsonde. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 407-420.
35. Holland, G. J., 1997: The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2519-2541.
36. Hoskins, B. J., M. E. McIntyre, and A. W. Robertson, 1985: On the use and significance of isentropic potential-vorticity maps. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 111, 877-946.
37. Jorgensen, D. P., 1984: Mesoscale and convective-scale characteristics of mature hurricanes. Part II. Inner core structure of Hurricane Allen (1980). J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 1287-1311.
38. Kepert, J., 2001: The dynamics of boundary layer jets within the tropical cyclone core. Part I: Linear theory. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2469-2484.
39. Kleinschmidt, E., 1951: Grundlagen einer Theorie der tropischen Zyklonen. Arch. Meteor. Geophys. Bioklimatol., A4, 53-72.
40. Koch, S. E., M. DesJardins, and P. J. Kocin, 1983: An interactive Barnes objective map analysis scheme for use with satellite and conventional data. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22, 1487-1503.
41. Kossin, J. P., and W. H. Schubert, 2001: Mesovortices, polygonal flow patterns, and rapid pressure falls in hurricane-like vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2196-2209.
42. Kossin, J. P., and W. H. Schubert, 2004: Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 151-153.
43. Kozich, P., 2006: Inner core structure and intensity change in Hurricane Isabel (2003). M.S. thesis, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 95 pp.
44. Lawrence, M. B., L. A. Avila, J. L. Beven, J. L. Franklin, R. J. Pasch, and S. R. Stewart, 2005: Atlantic hurricane season of 2003. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1744-1773.
45. LeeJoice, R. N., 2000: Hurricane inner-core structure as revealed by GPS dropwindsondes. Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science Bluebook 477, 56 pp.
46. Malkus, J. S., and H. Riehl, 1960: On the dynamics and energy transformations in steady-state hurricanes. Tellus, 12, 1-20.
47. McMillin, L. M., and D. S. Crosby, 1984: Theory and validation of the multiple window sea surface temperature technique. J. Geophys. Res., 89, 3655-3661.
48. Miller, B. I., 1958: On the maximum intensity of hurricanes. J. Meteor., 15, 184-195.
49. Montgomery, M. T., and L. J. Shapiro, 1995: Generalized Charney-Stern and Fjortoft theorems for rapidly rotating vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1829-1833.
50. Montgomery, M. T., H. D. Snell, and Z. Yang, 2001: Axisymmetric spindown dynamics of hurricane-like vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 421-435.
51. Montgomery, M. T., V. A. Vladimirov, and P. V. Denissenko, 2002: An experimental study on hurricane mesovortices. J. Fluid Mech., 471, 1-32.
52. Montgomery, M. T., M. M. Bell, S. D. Aberson, and M. Black, 2006: Hurricane Isabel (2003): New insights into the physics of intense storms. Part I: Mean vortex structure and maximum intensity estimates. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1335-1347.
53. Moss, M. S., 1978: Low-layer features of two limited-area hurricane regimes. NOAA Tech. Rep. ERL NHEML,1, 47 pp.
54. Persing, J., and M. T. Montgomery, 2003: Hurricane superintensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2349-2371.
55. Pielke, R. A., Jr., and C. W. Landsea, 1998: Normalized hurricane damages in the United States: 105-95. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 621-631.
56. Powell, M. D., P. J. Vickery, and T. Reinhold, 2003: Reduced drag coefficient for high wind speeds in tropical cyclones. Nature, 422, 279-283.
57. Price, J. F., 1981: Upper ocean response to a hurricane. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 11, 153-175.
58. Reasor, P. D., M. T. Montgomery, F. D. Marks Jr., and J. F. Gamache, 2000: Low-wavenumber structure and evolution of the hurricane inner core observed by airborne dual-Doppler radar. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1653-1680.
59. Rotunno, R., 1984: An investigation of a three-dimensional asymmetric vortex. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 283-298.
60. Rotunno, R., and K. A. Emanuel, 1987: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary study using a nonhydrostatic axisymmmetric numerical model. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 542-561.
61. Schubert, W. H., M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Taft, T. A. Guinn, S. R. Fulton, J. P. Kossin, and J. P. Edwards, 1999: Polygonal eyewalls, asymmetric eye contraction, and potential vorticity mixing in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1197-1223.
62. Shapiro, L. J., and H. E. Willoughby, 1982: The response of balanced hurricanes to local sources of heat and momentum. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 378-394.
63. Shapiro, L. J., and M. T. Montgomery, 1993: A three-dimensional balance theory for rapidly rotating vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 3322-3335.
64. Shay, L. K., and R. L. Elsherry. 1987: Near-inertial ocean current response to Hurricane Frederic. J. Phys. Oceanogr.. 17, 1249-1269.
65. Smith, R. K., 1980: Tropical cyclone eye dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 1227-1232.
66. Smith, R. K., M. T. Montgomery, and H. Zhu, 2005: Buoyancy in tropical cyclones and other rapidly rotating atmospheric vortices. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 40, 189-208.
67. Tonkin, H., G. J. Holland, N. Holbrook, and A. Henderson-Sellers, 2000: An evaluation of thermodynamic estimates of climatological maximum potential tropical cyclone intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 746-762.
68. Velden, C. S., C. M. Hayden, W. P. Menzel, J. L. Franklin, and J. S. Lynch, 1992: The impact of satellite-derived winds on numerical hurricane track forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 107-118.
69. Vladimirov, V. A., V. I. Yudovich, M. Yu Zhukov, and P. V. Denissenko, 2001: Asymmetric flows induced by a rotating body in a thin layer. HIMSA Preprint 3, Hull Institute for Mathematical Sciences and Applications, 45 pp.
70. Wang, J., 2005: Evaluation of the droosonde humidity sensor using data from DYCOMS-II and IHOP 2002. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 22, 247-257.
71. Wang, X., and D.-L. Zhang, 2003: Potential vorticity diagnosis of a simulated hurricane. Part I: Formulation and quasibalanced flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1593-1607.
72. Willoughby, H. E., 1990: Gradient balance in tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 265-274.
73. Willoughby, H. E., 1991: Reply. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 1209-1212.
74. Willoughby, H. E., and M. B. Chelmow, 1982: Objective determination of hurricane tracks from aircraft observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 1298-1305.
75. Zipser, E. J., R. J. Meitin, and M. A. LeMone, 1981: Mesoscale motion fields associated with a slowly moving GATE convective band. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1725-1750.