The cost of uncertainty in weather prediction: Modelling quality-value relationships for yes/no forecasts

Australian Meteorological Magazine

Volumn 53, Issue 2, 2004, Pages 111-122

  Mason, Ian ^a  

^a NONE   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; COST; PREDICTION; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 4344600180     PISSN: 00049743     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. Anaman, K.A., Lellyett, S.C., Drake, L., Leigh, R.J., Henderson-Sellers, A., Noar, P.F, Sullivan, P.J. and Thampapillai, D.J. 1998. Benefits of meteorological services: evidence from recent research in Australia. Met. Apps., 5, 103-15.
2. Chen, Y.-S., Ehrendorfer, M. and Murphy, A.H. 1987. On the relationship between the quality and value of forecasts in the generalized cost-loss ratio situation. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115, 1534-41.
3. Ehrendorfer, M. and Murphy, A.H. 1988. Comparative evaluation of weather forecasting systems: sufficiency, quality and accuracy. Mon. Weath. Rev., 116, 1757-70.
4. Finley, J.P. 1884. Tornado predictions. American Meteorological Journal, 1, 85-8.
5. Green, D.M. and Swets, J.A. 1966. Signal detection theory and Psychophysics. Wiley, New York. Reprinted by Kreiger, Huntington, NY, 1974. 479pp.
6. Harvey, L.O. Jr, Hammond, K.R., Lusk, C.M. and Moss, E.F. 1992. The application of signal detection theory to weather forecasting behaviour. Mon. Weath. Rev., 120, 863-83.
7. Jolliffe, I.T. and Stephenson, D.B. (eds) 2003. Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science. John Wiley and Sons, England, 240 pp.
8. Katz, R.W. and Murphy, A.H. 1987. Quality/value relationship for imperfect information in the umbrella problem. The American Statistician, 41, 187-9.
9. Katz, R.W. and Murphy, A.H. (eds). 1997. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Information. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 220 pp.
10. Leigh, R.J. 1995. Economic benefits of terminal aerodrome forecasts at Sydney airport. Australia. Met. Apps., 2, 239-47.
11. Levi, K. 1985. A signal detection framework for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts. Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 36, 143-66.
12. Mason, I. 1982a. A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Aust. Met. Mag., 30, 291-303.
13. Mason, I. 1982b. On scores for yes/no forecasts. Preprints of papers delivered at the Ninth AMS Conference on Weather Forecasting and Analysis, Seattle, Washington, 169-74.
14. Mason, I. 1989. Dependence of the critical success index on sample climate and threshold probability. Aust. Met. Mag., 37, 75-81.
15. Mason, I. 2003. Binary events. In Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson (eds). Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science. John Wiley and Sons, England, 240 pp.
16. Murphy, A.H. 1977. The value of climatological, categorical and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Mon. Weath. Rev., 105, 803-16.
17. Murphy, A.H. 1992. Climatology, persistence and their linear combination as standards of reference in skill scores. Mon. Weath. Rev., 120, 693-8.
18. Murphy, A.H. 1994. Assessing the economic value of weather forecasts: an overview of methods, results and issues. Met. Apps., 1, 69-73.
19. Murphy, A.H. 1996. The Finley affair: a signal event in the history of forecast verification. Weath. forecasting, 11, 3-20.
20. Murphy, A.H. and Ehrendorfer, M. 1987. On the relationship between the accuracy and value of forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Weath. forecasting, 2, 243-51.
21. Murphy, A.H. and Winkler, R.L. 1987. A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115, 1330-8.
22. Richardson, D.S. 2003. Economic value and skill. In Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson eds. Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science. John Wiley and Sons, England, 240 pp.
23. Swets, J.A. 1973. The relative operating characteristic in psychology. Science, 182, 990-1000
24. Swets, J.A. 1988. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science, 240, 1285-93.
25. Swets, J.A. 1996. Signal detection theory and ROC analysis in psychology and diagnostics: collected papers. Lawrence Erlbaum and Associates Inc, 308pp.
26. Swets, J.A. and Pickett, R.M. 1982. Evaluation of diagnostic systems. Academic Press, New York, 253 pp.
27. Thompson, J.C. and Brier, G.W. 1955. The economic utility of weather forecasts. Mon. Weath. Rev., 83, 249-54.
28. von Neumann, J. and Morgenstern, O. 1947. Theory of games and economic behaviour Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
29. Winkler, R.L. and Murphy, A.H. 1985. Decision Analysis. In Probability, Statistics and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences, Allan H. Murphy and R.W. Katz, eds. Westview Press, Boulder and London, 545pp.
30. Winterfeldt, D. von, and Edwards, W. 1986. Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 604pp.
31. Zhu, Y., Toth, Z., Wobus, R., Richardson, D. and Mylne, K. 2002. The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts. Bull. Am. met. Soc., 83, 73-83.