The importance of outside money in the 2002 congressional elections

The last hurrah?: Soft money and issue advocacy in the 2002 congressional elections

Volumn , Issue , 2004, Pages 1-35

  Magleby, David B ^a  

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References (109)

1. See David B. Magleby and Candice J. Nelson, The Money Chase: Congressional Campaign Finance Reform (Brookings, 1990)
2. Gary C. Jacobson, Money in Congressional Elections (Yale University Press, 1980)
3. See also Frank J. Sorauf, Inside Campaign Finance: Myths and Realities (Yale University Press, 1992).
4. Dick Morris, Behind the Oval Office: Getting Reelected against All Odds (Los Angeles: Renaissance Books, 1999), pp. 141, 624.
5. David B. Magleby, ed., The Other Campaign: Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 2000 Congressional Elections (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2003), p. 3
6. See also Paul S. Herrnson and Kelly D. Patterson, "Financing the 2000 Congressional Elections," in David B. Magleby, ed., Financing the 2000 Election (Brookings, 2002), p. 112.
7. Buckley v. Valeo, 424 U.S. 1, 44 n. 52 (1976).
8. Deborah Beck and others, "Issue Advocacy Advertising during the 1996 Campaign: A Catalog," Report 16, Annenberg Public Policy Center, September 1997, p. 10
9. See also Paul Herrnson, Congressional Elections: Campaigning at Home and in Washington (Congressional Quarterly, 1998), p. 123.
10. "Labor Targets," Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report 26, October 1996, p. 3084
11. Jeanne I. Dugan, "Washington Ain't Seen Nothing Yet," Business Week Report, May 13, 1996, p. 3
12. Paul Herrnson, "Parties and Interest Groups in Postreform Congressional Elections," in Allan Cigler and Burdette A. Loomis, eds. Interest Group Politics (Congressional Quarterly, 1998), pp. 160-61.
13. Center for Public Integrity, "The 'Black Hole' Groups," The Public-I, February 9, 2001 (www.publicintegrity.org/adwatch-02-033000.htm [July 15, 2002]).
14. David B. Magleby, ed., Outside Money: Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 1998 Congressional Elections (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2000)
15. Magleby, The Other Campaign
16. David B. Magleby, ed., Getting Inside the Outside Campaign: Issue Advocacy in the 2000 Presidential Primaries (Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Brigham Young University, 2000).
17. For briefs, expert reports, and other materials relating to McConnell v. FEC, see the Campaign Legal Center website (www.campaignlegalcenter.org).
18. See the Campaign Legal Center website for information on the FEC's rule-making on BCRA (www.campaignlegalcenter.org).
19. Examples of efforts at circumvention are abundant in the ongoing process by the FEC to implement BCRA. See Editorial, "Overhauling the FEC," Washington Post, July 11, 2003, p. A20.
20. J. Quin Monson and David B. Magleby, 2002 Campaign Communication Study [dataset] (Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Brigham Young University, 2002)
21. See chapter 12 for more discussion of these data. This number is in line with findings from our earlier studies. In 2000, for example, voters received over twelve pieces of mail a day in the Washington Second Congressional District race. See Todd Donovan and Charles Morrow, "The 2000 Washington Second Congressional District Race," in Magleby, The Other Campaign, pp. 220.
22. Groups that have done independent polling in past election cycles include the NEA, AFL-CIO, Trial Lawyers, NAACP, NRA, Chamber of Commerce, and all four congressional campaign committees. See David B. Magleby, "The Impact of Issue Advocacy and Party Soft Money Electioneering," in Kenneth Goldstein, ed., The Message and the Medium (Prentice Hall, forthcoming).
23. Paul S. Herrnson, "Hired Guns and House Races: Campaign Professionals in House Elections," in James A. Thurber and Candice J. Nelson, eds., Campaign Warriors: Political Consultants in Elections (Brookings, 2000), pp. 65-90.
24. Magleby, The Other Campaign, p. 49.
25. Remarks by Kathleen Hall Jamieson, CQ Post Elections Conference, Washington, D.C., November 2, 1998.
26. Mike Lux, president, Progressive Strategies, telephone interview by David Magleby and Quin Monson, January 9, 2003.
27. John Roos and Christopher Rodriguez, "The Indiana 2nd Congressional District Race," in David B. Magleby and J. Quin Monson, eds., The Last Hurrah: Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 2002 Congressional Elections, monograph version (Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Brigham Young University, 2003), pp. 223-35.
28. Penny M. Miller and Donald A. Gross, "The 2000 Kentucky Sixth Congressional District Race," in Magleby, The Other Campaign, p. 177
29. Adam J. Berinsky and Susan S. Lederman, "The 2000 New Jersey Twelfth Congressional District Race," in David B. Magleby, ed., Election Advocacy: Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 2000 Congressional Elections (Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Brigham Young University, 2001), pp. 217-18.
30. Myra MacPherson, "The New Right Brigade: John Terry Dolan's NCPAC Targets Liberals and the Federal Election Commission," Washington Post, August 10, 1980, p. F1
31. see also Magleby, Outside Money, p. 45.
32. For further details, see chapter 12 of this volume; and David B. Magleby and J. Quin Monson, "Campaign 2002: 'The Perfect Storm'" (Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Brigham Young University, November 13, 2003).
33. This shift first occurred in 1998 by the labor unions. See David B. Magleby and Marianne Holt, eds., Outside Money: Soft Money and Issue Ads in Competitive 1998 Congressional Elections (Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Brigham Young University, 2001)
34. Magleby, Outside Money.
35. Diana Dwyre and Robin Kolodny, "Throwing Out the Rule Book: Party Financing of the 2000 Elections," in Magleby, Financing the 2000 Election, pp. 153-55.
36. Karen L. Henderson, Memorandum Opinion in McConnell v. FEC, Civ. No. 02-581, p. 119.
37. Drew A. Linzer, David Menefee-Libey, and Matt Muller, "The 2002 California Twenty-Ninth Congressional District Race," in Magleby and Monson, The Last Hurrah, monograph version, p. 321.
38. Christopher J. Carman, "The 2002 Pennsylvania Fourth Congressional District," in Magleby and Monson, The Last Hurrah, monograph version, p. 355.
39. See Magleby and Nelson, The Money Chase
40. Magleby, Financing the 2000 Election
41. See also Frank J. Sorauf, Money in American Elections (Glenview, Ill.: Scott, Foresman, 1988)
42. Paul Herrnson, Congressional Elections: Campaigning at Home and in Washington, 3d ed. (Congressional Quarterly, 2000).
43. There is a debate in the literature on the impact of war chests. For a summary of the view that war chests matter, see Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, "A Dynamic Analysis of the Role of War Chests in Campaign Strategy," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 40 (1996), pp. 352-71
44. For a more recent article critical of the war chests theory, see Jay Goodliffe, "The Effect of War Chests on Challenger Entry in U.S. House Elections," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 45 (2001), pp. 830-44.
45. Allan J. Cigler, "Interest Groups and Financing the 2000 Elections," in Magleby, Financing the 2000 Election, p. 171.
46. Federal Election Commission, "Party Committees Raise More than $1 Billion in 2001-2002," press release, March 20, 2003 (www.fec.gov/press/20030320party/20030103party.html [April 29, 2003]).
47. Federal Election Commission, "Party Committees Raise More than $1 Billion." Adjusted by CPI (ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special. requests/cpi/cpiai.txt [January 15, 2003]).
48. See Anthony Corrado, Thomas E. Mann, and Trevor Potter, eds., Inside the Campaign Finance Battle: Court Testimony on the New Reforms (Brookings, 2003)
49. Michael J. Malbin, ed., Life after Reform: When the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act Meets Politics (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, forthcoming); prepublication draft available at www.cfinst.org/studies/bcra-book/index.html.
50. Henderson opinion in McConnell v. FEC, p. 82.
51. Magleby, The Other Campaign
52. David B. Magleby, Dictum without Data: The Myth of Issue Advocacy and Party Building (Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Brigham Young University, 2000).
53. Henderson opinion in McConnell v. FEC, p. 85
54. 50 For a discussion of legal regulations for groups like this, see Elizabeth Garrett and Daniel A. Smith, "Veiled Political Actors: The Real Threat to Campaign Disclosure Statutes," working paper (USC-Caltech Center for the Study of Law and Politics, 2003) (http://lawweb.usc.edu/cslp/pages/ papers.html [July 21, 2003]).
55. Henderson opinion in McConnell v. FEC, p. 111.
56. Jonathan S. Krasno and Daniel E. Seltz, Buying Time: Television Advertising in the 1998 Congressional Elections (New York: Brennan Center for Justice, 2000), p. 22
57. see also Craig B. Holman and Luke P. McLaughlin, Buying Time 2000: Television Advertising in the 2000 Federal Elections (New York: Brennan Center for Justice, 2001), p. 56.
58. Colorado Republican Federal Campaign Committee v. Federal Election Commission, 116 S.Ct. 2309 (1996).
59. Cigler, "Interest Groups and Financing the 2000 Elections," p. 175.
60. AEI Election Watch, "2002 Evaluation of President Bush," November 7, 2002, (www.aeipoliticalcorner.org/KB%20Articles/EW-Handout-November. pdf [May 16, 2003]).
61. For a collection of these models that were assembled just before the 2002 election, see "Elections, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior Archives," American Political Science Association, January 4, 2003 (www.apsanet.net/~elections/archives.html [January 21, 2003]).
62. Renzi and Cordova were each tied with 37 percent of the vote in a poll conducted just after the primary election. But in a poll taken October 17-20, Rienzi's lead had grown to 48 to 36 percent. See "Arizona CD 1 Election: Cordova and Renzi Tied in Support," press release, Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory, September 17, 2002 (www.nau.edu/srl/09- 17-02.pdf [April 29, 2003])
63. "Renzi Surges ahead of Cordova," press release, Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory, October 21, 2002 (www.nau.edu/srl/10-21-02.pdf [April 29, 2003]).
64. Judy Keen, "Bush Isn't on the Ballot, but His Influence Is," USA Today, April 28, 2002, p. 7A.
65. Eric M. Appleman, "President Bush on the Money Trail," Democracy in Action, January 16, 2003 (www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/money/bushmoney. html [January 21, 2003]).
66. Patricia Lopez, "Coleman Edges Mondale; Pawlenty Rides GOP Wave," Minneapolis Star Tribune, November 6, 2002, p. 1A.
67. The Lear Center Local News Archive, "Local TV Coverage of the 2002 General Election," The Norman Lear Center at the University of Southern California Annenberg School and the Wisconsin News Lab at the University of Wisconsin, Madison (www.localnewsarchive.org/pdf/LocalTV2002.pdf [July 29, 2003]), p. 15.
68. Judy Keen, "GOP Strategy Charted in Early '01," USA Today, November 8, 2002, p. 5A.
69. Baucus instead faced Republican candidate Mike Taylor, who withdrew from the race after the state Democratic Party ran an attack ad funded by the DSCC but then reconsidered and returned to the race twelve days later. Craig Wilson, "The Montana Senate and At-Large Congressional District Races," in Magleby and Monson, The Last Hurrah, monograph version, pp. 342-43
70. see also David B. Magleby and J. Quin Monson, "The Noncandidate Campaign: Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 2002 Congressional Elections," PS: Political Science and Politics online e-symposium, July 2003 (www.apsanet.org/PS/July03/toc.cfm [July 30, 2003]).
71. Toricelli, under an ethical cloud and having been "severely admonished" by the Senate, dropped out of the race. See Jim VandeHei and Helen Dewar, "Senate Ethics Panel Rebukes Torricelli: Reprimand over Gifts Could Have Political Consequences for N.J. Democrat," Washington Post, July 31, 2002, p. A1.
72. For a discussion of this same phenomenon in the 2000 election, see Martha E. Kropf and others, "The 2000 Missouri Senate Race," in Magleby, Election Advocacy, pp. 75-91.
73. Edward Walsh, "Election Turnout Rose Slightly to 39.3%; GOP Mobilization Credited; Participation Was Down in Some Democratic Areas," Washington Post, November 8, 2002, p. A10.
74. See Curtis Gans, "Turnout Mostly Higher, Democrats in Deep Doo Doo, Many Questions Emerge," press release, Center for the Study of the American Electorate, November 8, 2002 (www.fairvote.org/turnout/csae2002.htm [May 16, 2003]).
75. For a discussion of how campaign spending increases information and turnout, see Bradley Smith, Unfree Speech: The Folly of Campaign Finance Reform (Princeton University Press, 2001). Others, like Curtis Gans of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, dispute this claim. Curtis Gans, interview by David Magleby and Jonathan Tanner, Washington, D.C., May 7, 2003.
76. Herrnson, Congressional Elections, 3d ed., p. 26.
77. Sheila O'Connell, political director, EMILY's List, interview by Quin Monson and Jonathan Tanner, Washington, D.C., December 11, 2002.
78. Stephen Moore and David Keating, "Election Results Review," memorandum to Club for Growth Members, November 15, 2002 (www.clubforgrowth.org/ members-only/021115.php [January 21, 2003]).
79. Stephen Moore, president, Club for Growth, interview by David Magleby and Jonathan Tanner, Washington, D.C., December 2, 2002.
80. Amy Schatz, "Men Cry Foul over EMILY; Despite Critics, Group Expects Big Win Nov. 5," Atlanta Journal-Constitution, September 15, 2002, p. 4C.
81. Richard L. Berke, "G.O.P. Gives Help to House Hopefuls," New York Times, March 3, 2002, p. A26.
82. David B. Magleby, Election Advocacy Database 2000 [dataset] (Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Brigham Young University, 2000)
83. Monson and Magleby, 2002 Campaign Communication Study [dataset].
84. Linda Lipsen, senior director of public affairs, Association of Trial Lawyers of America, telephone interview by David Magleby and Quin Monson, December 19, 2002.
85. Mike Matthews, political director, DCCC, interview by David Magleby and Nicole Carlisle Squires, Washington, D.C., November 12, 2002.
86. Jim VandeHei and Dan Balz, "In GOP Win, a Lesson in Money, Muscle, Planning," Washington Post, November 10, 2002, p. A1.
87. On the issue agenda in congressional elections more generally, see Owen Abbe and others, "Agenda Setting in Congressional Elections: The Impact of Issues and Campaigns on Voting Behavior," Political Research Quarterly (forthcoming)
88. See also John Petrocik, "Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 40 (August 1996), pp. 825-50
89. Jon K. Daloger, "Voters, Issues, and Elections: Are the Candidates' Messages Getting Through?" Journal of Politics, Vol. 58 (May 1996): pp. 486-515
90. Constantine J. Spiliotes and Lynn Vavreck, "Campaign Advertising: Partisan Convergence or Divergence," Journal of Politics, Vol. 64 (Winter 2002), pp. 249-61.
91. Speaker-elect Gingrich said, "We underestimated the degree to which people would get sick of the scandal through repetition⋯ We did what we thought would be effective, but our expectations did not fit with what happened on Election Day." See Marc Birtel, "Democrats' Victories Buck History of Midterm Elections," Congressional Quarterly 5 (November 1998), p. 7.
92. Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 5th ed. (Addison-Wesley Longman, 2001), p. 142.
93. Monson and Magleby, 2002 Campaign Communication Study [dataset]. A brief description of the panel survey methodology is included in appendix A.
94. David E. Rosenbaum, "But It's Not the Economy, So Far," New York Times, October 11, 2002, p. A17.
95. Andy Grossman, political director, DSCC, interview by David Magleby, Quin Monson, and Jonathan Tanner, Washington, D.C., November 8, 2002.
96. Steve Schmidt and Carl Forti, "Words Matter in the Social Security Debate," NRCC Communications Office memorandum to GOP incumbents and candidates, August 26, 2002.
97. Jack Polidori, political affairs specialist, NEA, interview by David Magleby and Jonathan Tanner, Washington, D.C., November 15, 2002.
98. Robert Pear, "House Votes to Place Prescription Drugs under Coverage by Medicare," New York Times, June 28, 2002, p. A16.
99. See Robert Pear, "Democrats Start Petition to Force Vote on Drug Bill," New York Times, September 19, 2002, p. A30.
100. See discussion of Citizens for Better Medicare as well as the California Twenty-Seventh District case study in Magleby, The Other Campaign, p. 158
101. Magleby, Election Advocacy, p. 139.
102. Robin Toner, "The 2002 Campaign: The Drug Industry: Democrats See a Stealthy Drive by Drug Industry to Help Republicans," New York Times, October 19, 2002, p. A20.
103. Magleby and Monson, "Campaign 2002: 'The Perfect Storm'."
104. Thomas B. Edsall, "The Sum of Its Parts No Longer Works for the Democratic Party," Washington Post, November 24, 2002, p. B4.
105. Mike Allen, "Bush Steps into the Classroom to Tout New Education Law," Washington Post, May 7, 2002, p. A4.
106. Gail Stoltz, political director, DNC, interview by David Magleby and Jonathan Tanner, Washington, D.C., November 13, 2002.
107. Kropf and others, "The 2000 Missouri Senate Race."
108. Sandra M. Anglund and Clyde McKee, "The 1998 Connecticut Fifth Congressional District Race," in Magleby, Outside Money
109. Sandra M. Anglund and Joanne M. Miller, "Interest Group and Party Election Activity: A Report on the 2000 Connecticut Fifth Congressional District Race," in David B. Magleby, ed., "Outside Money," PS: Political Science and Politics, online e-symposium, June 2001 (www.apsanet.org/PS/june01/ anglund.cfm [May 15, 2003]).