Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning

Journal of Applied Ecology

Volumn 45, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 821-833

  Sutherland, William J ^a   Bailey, Mark J ^b   Bainbridge, Ian P ^c   Brereton, Tom ^d   Dick, Jaimie T A ^e   Drewitt, Joanna ^c   Dulvy, Nicholas K ^f   Dusic, Nicholas R ^g   Freckleton, Robert P ^h   Gaston, Kevin J ^h   Gilder, Pam M ⁱ   Green, Rhys E ^a,j   Heathwaite, A Louise ^k   Johnson, Sally M ^l   MacDonald, David W ^m   Mitchell, Roger ⁿ   Osborn, Daniel ^b   Owen, Roger P ^o   Pretty, Jules ^p   Prior, Stephanie V ^a   Prosser, Havard ^q   Pullin, Andrew S ^r   Rose, Paul ^s   Stott, Andrew ^t   Tew, Tom ^u   Thomas, Chris D ^v   Thompson, Des B A ^l   Vickery, Juliet A ^w   Walker, Matt ^x   Walmsley, Clive ^y   Warrington, Stuart ^z   Watkinson, Andrew R ^aa   Williams, Rich J ^ab   Woodroffe, Rosie ^ac   Woodroof, Harry J ^ad   more..

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

^b NATURAL ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH COUNCIL   (United Kingdom)

^c SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT   (United Kingdom)

^d BUTTERFLY CONSERVATION   (United Kingdom)

^e QUEEN'S UNIVERSITY BELFAST   (United Kingdom)

^f CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT   (United Kingdom)

^g BRITISH ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY   (United Kingdom)

^h UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD   (United Kingdom)

ⁱ ENVIRONMENT AGENCY   (United Kingdom)

^j RSPB CENTRE FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCE   (United Kingdom)

^k LANCASTER UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^l SCOTTISH NATURAL HERITAGE   (United Kingdom)

^m UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

ⁿ Arcadia   (United Kingdom)

^o SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION AGENCY   (United Kingdom)

^p UNIVERSITY OF ESSEX   (United Kingdom)

^q WELSH GOVERNMENT   (United Kingdom)

^r BANGOR UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^s JNCC   (United Kingdom)

^t DEFRA   (United Kingdom)

^u NATURAL ENGLAND   (United Kingdom)

^v UNIVERSITY OF YORK   (United Kingdom)

^w THE NUNNERY   (United Kingdom)

^x Lacon House   (United Kingdom)

^y Lacon House ^*  (United Kingdom)

^z NATIONAL TRUST   (United Kingdom)

^aa UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^ab MICROSOFT RESEARCH   (United Kingdom)

^ac INSTITUTE OF ZOOLOGY   (United Kingdom)

^ad Government Office for Science   (United Kingdom)

more..

Author keywords

Conservation; Conservation policy; Decision making; Environmental risk; Nanotechnology

Indexed keywords

AVIAN INFLUENZA; BIODIVERSITY; BIOFUEL; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION PLANNING; DECISION MAKING; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY; ENVIRONMENTAL RISK; FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE; NANOTECHNOLOGY; NATURE CONSERVATION; POLICY IMPLEMENTATION; TRANSGENIC PLANT;

EURASIA; EUROPE; UNITED KINGDOM; WESTERN EUROPE;

AVES;

EID: 42949164373     PISSN: 00218901     EISSN: 13652664     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01474.x     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Andrade, C., Borges, P. Freltas, M.C. (2006) Historical tsunami in the Azores archipelago (Portugal). Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 156, 172 185.
2. Anonymous (2005) Ocean Acidification Due to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Report no. 12/05. Royal Society, London.
3. Arthur, A.D., Pech, R.P. Singleton, G.R. (2007) Cross-strain protection reduces effectiveness of virally vectored fertility control: results from individual-based multistrain models. Journal of Applied Ecology, 44, 1252 1262.
4. Ausden, M. (2007) Habitat Management for Conservation. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
5. Balmford, A., Bruner, A., Cooper, P., Costanza, R., Farber, S., Green, R.E., Jenkins, M., Jefferiss, P., Jessamy, V., Madden, J., Munro, K., Myers, N., Naeem, S., Paavola, J., Rayment, M., Rosendo, S., Roughgarden, J., Trumper, K. Turner, R.K. (2002) Economic reasons for conserving wild nature. Science, 297, 950 953.
6. Cicerone, R.J. (2006) Geoengineering: encouraging research and overseeing implementation. Climatic Change, 77, 221 226.
7. Costanza, R., d'Arge, R., de Groot, R., Farber, S., Grasso, M., Hannon, B., Limburg, K., Naeem, S., O'Neill, R.V., Paruelo, J., Raskin, R.G., Sutton, P. Marjan van den Belt, M. (1997) The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature, 387, 253 260.
8. Davies, G.M., Legg, C.J., Smith, A. MacDonald, A. (2006) Developing shrub fire behaviour models in an oceanic climate: Burning in the British uplands. Forest Ecology and Management, 234 (Suppl. 1 Page S107.
9. Defra (2006) Food Security and the UK: an Evidence and Analysis Paper Food Chain Analysis Group. Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, London.
10. Dreher, K.L. (2004) Health and Environmental Impact of Nanotechnology: Toxicological Assessment of Manufactured Nanoparticles. Toxicological Sciences, 77, 3 5.
11. Environmental Research Funders' Forum (2007) An Environmental Research Funders' Forum report - horizon scanning study. Environmental Research Funders' Forum.
12. Ferris, R., ed. (2007) Research Needs for UK Biodiversity. Defra, London.
13. Figueredo, C.C., Giani, A. Bird, D.F. (2007) Does allelopathy contribute to Cyclindrospermopsis raciborskii (cyanobacteria) bloom occurrence and geographic expansion? Journal of Phycology, 43, 256 265.
14. Fuller, R.A., Irvine, K.N., Devine-Wright, P., Warren, P.H. Gaston, K.J. (2007) Psychological benefits of greenspace increase with biodiversity. Biology Letters, 3, 390 394.
15. Gill, A.B. (2005) Offshore renewable energy: ecological implications of generating electricity in the coastal zone. Journal of Applied Ecology, 42, 605 615.
16. Hansen, J.E. (2007) Scientific reticence and sea level rise. Environmental Research Letters, 2, 024002.
17. Hardy, C.M., Hinds, L.A., Kerr, P.J., Lloyd, M.L., Redwood, A.J., Shellam, G.R. Strive, T. (2006) Biological control of vertebrate pests using virally vectored immunocontraception. Journal of Reproductive Immunology, 71, 102 111.
18. Harris, M.P., Beare, D., Toresen, R., Nøttestad, L., Kloppmann, M. et al 2007) A major increase in snake pipefish (Entelurus aequoreus) in northern European seas since 2003: potential implications for seabird breeding success. Marine Biology, 151, 973 983.
19. 2 in the Atmosphere. OSPAR Commission.
20. Hawkins, C.E., Baars, C., Hesterman, H., Hocking, G.J., Jones, M.E., Lazenby, B., Mann, D., Mooney, N., Pemberton, D., Pyecroft, S., Restani, M. Wiersma, J. (2006) Emerging disease and population decline of an island endemic, the Tasmanian devil Sarcophilus harrisi. Biological Conservation, 131, 307 324.
21. Holdenrieder, O., Pautasso, M., Weisberg, P.J. Lonsdale, D. (2004) Tree diseases and landscape processes: the challenge of landscape pathology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 19, 446 452.
22. Hopkins, J. (2007) British wildlife and climate change. 2. Adapting to climate change. British Wildlife, 18, 381 387.
23. Hossell, J., Clemence, B., Wright, B., Edwards, R. Juppenlatz, Z. (2006) England Biodiversity Strategy: Towards adaptation to climate change. Defra, London.
24. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland.
25. King, D.A. Thomas, S.M. (2007) Taking science out of the box - foresight recast. Science, 316, 1701 1702.
26. Kuhn, K.G., Campbell-Lendrum, D.H., Armstrong, B. Davies, C.R. (2003) Malaria in Britain: past, present and future. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 100, 9997 10001.
27. Louv, R. (2005) Last Child in the Woods. Algonquin Press, Chapel Hill.
28. Mackenzie, B.R. Schiedek, D. (2007) Daily ocean monitoring since the 1860s shows record warming of northern European seas. Global Change Biology, 13, 1335 1347.
29. Maynard, A.D., Aitken, R.J., Butz, T., Colvin, V., Donaldson, K., Oberdorster, G., Philbert, M.A., Ryan, J., Seaton, A., Stone, V., Tinkle, S.S., Tran, L., Walker, N.J. Warheit, D.B. (2006) Safe handling of nanotechnology. Nature, 444, 267 269.
30. McLachlan, J.S., Hellmann, J.J. Schwartz, M.W. (2007) A framework for debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change. Conservation Biology, 21, 297 302.
31. Meyer, J.A., Guillot, A., Girard, B., Khamassi, M., Pirim, P. Berthoz, A. (2005) The Psikharpax project: towards building an artificial rat. Robotics and Autonomous Systems, 50, 211 223.
32. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC.
33. Perry, A.L., Low, P.J., Ellis, J.R. Reynolds, J.D. (2005) Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science, 308, 1912 1915.
34. Peterson, M.N., Mertig, A.G. Liu, J. (2006) Effects of zoonotic disease attributes on public attitudes towards wildlife management. Journal of Wildlife Management, 70, 1746 1753.
35. Pinnegar, J.K., Viner, D., Hadley, D., Dye, S., Harris, M., Berkout, F. Simpson, M. (2006) Alternative Future Scenarios for Marine Ecosystems. Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Sciences, Lowestoft.
36. Pretty, J. (2003) Social capital and the collective management of resources. Science, 302, 1912 1915.
37. Pretty, J. (2007) The Earth Only Endures: on Reconnecting with Nature and Our Place in It. Earthscan, London.
38. Pretty, J., Peacock, J., Hine, R., Sellens, M., South, N. Griffin, M. (2007) Green exercise in the UK countryside: effects on health and psychological well-being. Journal of Environmental Planning and Manage, 50, 211 231.
39. Pretty, J., Peacock, J., Sellens, M. Griffin, M. (2005) The mental and physical health outcomes of green exercise. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 15, 319 337.
40. Raghu, S., Anderson, R.C., Daehler, C.C., Davis, A.S., Wiedenmann, R.N., Simberloff, D. Mack, R.N. (2006) Adding biofuels to the invasive species fire? Science, 313, 1742 1742.
41. Reid, P.C., Johns, D.G., Edwards, M., Starr, M., Poulin, M. et al 2007) A biological consequence of reducing Arctic ice cover: arrival of the Pacific diatom Neodenticula seminae in the North Atlantic for the first time in 800 000 years. Global Change Biology, 13, 1910 1921.
42. Simberloff, D. (2006) Invasional meltdown 6 years later: important phenomenon, unfortunate metaphor, or both? Ecology Letters, 9, 912 919.
43. Smith, H.O., Hutchinson, C.A., Pfannkoch, C. Venter, J.C. (2003) Generating a synthetic genome by whole genome assembly: phi X174 bacteriophage from synthetic oligonucleotides. PNAS, 100, 15440 15440.
44. Smith, C.J., Shaw, B.J. Handy, R.D. (2007) Toxicity of single walled carbon nanotubes to rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss): respiratory toxicity, organ pathologies, and other physiological effects. Aquatic Ecotoxicology, 82, 94 109.
45. Solheim, A., Bryn, P., Sejrup, H.P., Mienert, J. Berg, K. (2005) Ormen Lange - an integrated study for the safe development of a deep-water gas field within the Storegga Slide Complex, NE Atlantic continental margin; executive summary. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 22, 1 9.
46. Solomon, S. et al 2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. IPCC.
47. Stern, N. (2007) The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
48. Stewart, G.B., Pullin, A.S. Coles, C.F. (2007) Poor evidence-base for assessment of windfarm impacts on birds. Environmental Conservation, 34, 1 11.
49. Sutherland, W.J. (2002a) Restoring a sustainable countryside. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 17, 148 150.
50. Sutherland, W.J. (2002b) Openness in management. Nature, 418, 834 835.
51. Sutherland, W.J. (2004) A blueprint for the countryside. Ibis, 146 (Suppl. 1 120 124.
52. Sutherland, W.J., Armstrong-Brown, S., Armsworth, P.R., Brereton, T., Brickland, J., Campbell, C.D., Chamberlain, D.E., Cooke, A.I., Dulvy, N.K., Dusic, N.R., Fitton, M., Freckleton, R.P., Godfray, H.C., Grout, N., Harvey, H.J., Hedley, C., Hopkins, J.J., Kift, N.B., Kirby, J., Kunin, W.E., MacDonald, D.W., Markee, B., Naura, M., Neale, A.R., Oliver, T., Osborn, D., Pullin, A.S., Shardlow, M.E.A., Showler, D.A., Smith, P.L., Smithers, R.J., Solandt, J.-L., Spencer, J., Spray, C.J., Thomas, C.D., Thompson, J., Webb, S.E., Yalden, D.W. Watkinson, A.R. (2006) The identification of 100 ecological questions of high policy relevance in the UK. Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 617 627.
53. Thomas, C.D., Bodsworth, E.J., Wilson, R.J., Simmons, A.D., Davies, Z.G., Musche, M. Conradt, L. (2001) Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins. Nature, 411, 577 581.
54. Thompson, D.B.A., Price, M.F. Galbraith, C.A. (eds) (2005) Mountains of Northern Europe: Conservation, Management, People and Nature. The Stationery Office, Edinburgh.
55. Tuck, G., Glendining, M.J., Smith, P., House, J.L. Wattenbach, M. (2006) The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in Europe under present and future climate. Biomass and Bioenergy, 30, 183 197.
56. Vera. F.W.M. (2000) Grazing Ecology and Forest History. CABI, Wallingford.
57. Walmsley, C.A., Smithers, R.J., Berry, P.M., Harley, M., Stevenson, M.J. Catchpole, R. (2007) MONARCH: Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate Change - a Synthesis for Biodiversity Conservation. UKCIP, Oxford.
58. Warren, M.S., Hill, J.K., Thomas, J.A., Asher, J., Fox, R., Huntley, B., Roy, D.B., Telfer, M.G., Jeffcoate, S., Harding, P., Jeffcoate, G., Willis, S.G., Greatorex-Davies, J.N., Greatorex-Davies, J.N., Moss, D. Thomas, C.D. (2001) Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature, 414, 65 69.
59. Watkinson, A.R., Nicholls, R.J., Dear, D.A. Ledoux, L. (2007) Environmental impacts of future flood risk. Future Flooding and Coastal Erosion Risks (eds C.R. Thorne, E.P. Evans E.C. Penning-Rowsell pp. 29 46. Thomas Telford, London.
60. WCS Futures Group (2007) Futures of the Wild. Wildlife Conservation Society, New York.
61. Wigley, T.M.L. (2006) A combined mitigation/geoengineering approach to climate stabilization. Science, 5798, 452 454.
62. Wilby, R.L., Whitehead, P.G., Wade, A.J., Butterfield, D., Davis, R.J. Watts, G. (2006) Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK. Journal of Hydrology, 330, 204 220.
63. Wilson, K.J., Falkingham, J., Melling, H. De Abreu, R. (2004) Shipping in the Canadian Arctic: other possible climate change scenarios. Proceedings of the Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium 2004. IGARSS 2004. IEEE International, 3 (20-24 Sept. 1853 1856. doi:
64. Woube, M. (1998) Effect of fire on plant communities and soils in the humid tropical savannah of Gambela, Ethiopia. Land Degradation and Development, 9, 275 282.