Energy insecurity with Chinese and American characteristics: Implications for Sino-American relations

Journal of Contemporary China

Volumn 17, Issue 55, 2008, Pages 229-245

  Pollack, Jonathan ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BILATERAL AGREEMENT; BUREAUCRACY; DECISION MAKING; ENERGY POLICY; ENERGY RESOURCE; OIL SUPPLY; POLITICAL RELATIONS; STRATEGIC APPROACH;

ASIA; CHINA; EURASIA; FAR EAST; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 42149168530     PISSN: 10670564     EISSN: 14699400     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10670560701809478     Document Type: Review

References (75)

1. For a valuable corrective, see Daniel Yergin, 'What does "energy security" really mean?', Wall Street Journal, (11 July 2006).
2. For fuller consideration of these issues, consult National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency, John Deutch and James R. Schlesinger, Co-Chairs (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, Independent Task Force Report No. 58, 2006)
3. Energy Policy Act 2005, Section 1837: National Security Review of International Energy Requirements (Washington, DC: US Department of Energy, February 2006)
4. Erica Downs, China (Washington, DC: Brookings Foreign Policy Studies, Energy Security Series, December 2006)
5. Eugene Gholz and Daryl G. Press, Energy Alarmism - The Myths That Make Americans Worry About Oil (Washington, DC: Cato Institute Report No. 589, 5 April 2007)
6. and Daniel H. Rosen and Trevor Houser, China Energy - A Guide for the Perplexed (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Center for International and Strategic Studies, China Balance Sheet Project, May 2007).
7. See, for example, Josh Kurlantzick, 'Crude awakening', The New Republic, (25 September 2006). For cogent critiques of these arguments, consult Erica S. Downs, 'The fact and fiction of Sino-African energy relations', China Security 3(3), (Summer 2007), pp. 42-68
8. and Erica S. Downs, 'China's quest for overseas oil', Far Eastern Economic Review, (September 2007).
9. James A. Russell and Trisha Bury, 'Conference report: The militarization of energy security', Strategic Insights VI(2), (March 2007).
10. See Ending the Energy Stalemate - A Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America's Energy Challenges (Washington, DC: The National Committee on Energy Policy, December 2004)
11. for an assessment focused on US defense requirements, consult Reducing DoD Fossil-Fuel Dependence (McLean, VA: JASON, The MITRE Corporation, JSR-06-135, September 2006).
12. For some valuable insight into Chinese energy strategy, consult Chen Fengying, 'World energy security in flux', Contemporary International Relations 16(7), (July 2006), pp. 1-12
13. various essays in China Security (Washington, DC: World Security Institute China Program, Summer 2006)
14. and Xuecheng Liu, China's Energy Security and Grand Strategy (Muscatine, IA: The Stanley Foundation, Policy Analysis Brief, September 2006).
15. 'Drowning in oil', The Economist, (6 March 1999).
16. Jeffrey Logan, 'Energy outlook for China: Focus on oil and gas', Testimony before the US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources 3 February 2005, as cited in Phillip C. Saunders, China's Global Activism: Strategy, Drivers, and Tools (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, Institute for National Strategic Studies, Occasional Paper 4, October 2006), p. 6.
17. Flynt Leverett and Jeffrey Bader, 'Managing China-US energy competition in the Middle East', The Washington Quarterly 29(1), (Winter 2005-2006), p. 189.
18. Despite the rapid growth in energy consumption in China and India, per capita energy use in both countries remains very low, compared to Canada and the United States. (Canada's per capita energy consumption amply exceeds that of the United States.) In 2004, China's per capita energy consumption was between one-seventh and oneeighth of the US figure; India's per capita consumption was only about one-third of China's. 'Leaders of the pack', The Atlantic, (January/February 2007), p. 125.
19. As Xuecheng Liu notes, however, China still relies disproportionately on domestic sources of energy supply. In 2005, 94% of China's energy requirements derived from domestic sources, although the preponderant role of coal in this mix (approximately two-thirds of this total) has deeply worrisome environmental consequences. Liu further notes that China projects that the domestic sources of total energy needs will drop to approximately 80% by 2020. Liu, China's Energy Security and Grand Strategy, pp. 3, 5.
20. BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, (June 2006), as cited in Chen, 'World energy security in flux', p.
21. BP, StatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy, (June 2006), as tabulated inReducingDoDFossil-FuelDependence, p.vi.
22. Liu, China's Energy Security and Grand Strategy, pp. 10-11. There continue to be year-on-year variations in China's sources of oil supply. In the first half of 2007, the top tier of China's oil suppliers were Saudi Arabia, Angola, and Iran, respectively
23. the second tier of suppliers were Russia, Oman, and Sudan, with lesser roles played by Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Congo, and the United Arab Emirates. China Watch Monthly Review, (August 2007), p. 19, available at: www.Asiaint.com.
24. Data from IEA Website, 30 June 2006, as cited in Liu, China's Energy Security and Grand Strategy, p. 8.
25. Yergin, 'What does "energy security" really mean?'.
26. Chip Cummins, 'As threats to oil supply grow, a General says US isn't ready', Wall Street Journal, (19 December 2006).
27. Reducing DoD Fossil-Fuel Dependence, pp. 4-5.
28. Chen, 'World energy security in flux', p. 4.
29. Liu, China's Energy Security and Grand Strategy, p. 12.
30. Zha Daojiong, 'Energy interdependence', China Security, (Summer 2006), pp. 7, 9.
31. Zhang Wenmu, 'Sea power and China's strategic choices', China Security, (Summer 2006), pp. 19-22, 27.
32. Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, 'Tanking up: The commercial and strategic significance of China's growing tanker fleet', Geopolitics of Energy 29(8), (August 2007), pp. 2-11.
33. Xu Qi, 'Military geostrategy and the development of the Chinese navy in the early twenty-first century', Naval War College Review 59(4), (Autumn 2006), pp. 47-67, as translated by Andrew Erickson and Lyle Goldstein.
34. On Liu's views of maritime strategy and Chinese military modernization as a whole, consult Liu Huaqing Huiyilu [Memoirs of Liu Huaqing] (Beijing: Jiefangjun Chubanshe, 2004), especially chs. 16-20.
35. For some representative examples, consult Yang Yi, 'Occupy the moral high ground of a rich country with a powerful army', Huanqiu Shibao [Global Times], www in Chinese, (27 April 2006)
36. Yang Yi, 'Adhere to peaceful development, safeguard the period of strategic opportunity', Xiandai Guoji Guanxi [Contemporary International Relations] no. 9, (September 2006), pp. 40-42
37. Liu Jiangping and Zhui Yue, 'How to reform the navy in order to execute China's maritime strategy in the 21st century', Dangdai Haijun [Contemporary Navy], (1 June 2007), pp. 6-9
38. and Wu Shengli and Hu Yanlin, 'Building a powerful people's navy that meets the requirements of the historical mission for our army', Qiushi,wwwin Chinese, no. 14, (16 July 2007). Rear Admiral Yang is Director of the Institute of Strategic Studies at the China National Defense University
39. AdmiralsWu and Hu are Commander and Political Commissar of the PLA Navy, respectively.
40. For an additional review of these writings, consult James R. Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, 'China and the commons: Angell or Mahan?', World Affairs, (22 March 2006).
41. All the above quotes are drawn from Zhao Hongtu, 'Reconsidering the "Malacca dilemma" and China's energy security', Xiandai Guoji Guanxi no. 6, (20 June 2007), pp. 36-42.
42. For a compelling critique of arguments faulting China's supposed mercantilist behavior, consult Downs, 'China's quest for overseas oil'.
43. Leverett and Bader, 'Managing China-US energy competition in the Middle East', p. 193.
44. For an additional perspective, consult Kenneth Lieberthal and Mikkal Herberg, 'China's search for energy security: Implications for US policy', NBR Analysis 17(1), (April 2006), pp. 11-16.
45. Lieberthal and Herberg appear to date the 'going out' policy somewhat earlier than Leverett and Bader.
46. See, for example, 'China's energy thirst - Editorial', Wall Street Journal, (24 June 2005).
47. See Fu's interview with Shai Oster, 'China's offshore oilman', Wall Street Journal, (31 July 2006).
48. For a pithy demolition of these arguments, see Charles Wolf, Jr, 'Energy fables', The International Economy, (Fall 2005), pp. 38-39, 54.
49. For a valuable overview of these issues, consult National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency.
50. Daniel Yergin, 'Energy independence', Wall Street Journal, (23 January 2007).
51. Dan Blumenthal and Joseph Lin, 'Oil obsession', Armed Forces Journal (June 2006), pp. 49-50.
52. Dan Blumenthal, 'Concerns with respect to China's energy policy', in Gabriel Collins et al., eds, China's Energy Strategy - The Impact on Beijing's Maritime Policies (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2008).
53. For a detailed assessment that explores a wide range of options for reducing China's 'energy source security', consult Wang Haibing and Li Bin, 'China's choices in energy source security means and the new security concept', Dangdai Yatai, (1 May 2007), pp. 21-30.
54. LtCol Matthew J. Bonnot et al., 'Responding to China's global pursuit of energy: US challenges and strategic options', paper submitted to the Faculty of the Naval War College, 1 June 2007.
55. See the comments of then Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing at the news conference of the Fifth Session of the Tenth National People's Congress, Beijing CCTV-1 in Mandarin, 6 March 2007.
56. Shai Oster, 'China seems poised to pass US as top greenhouse gas emitter', Wall Street Journal, (24 April 2007).
57. Rebecca Blumenstein, Shai Oster and John D. McKinnon, 'China, US move to deflect climate critics', Wall Street Journal (Asian edition), (1-3 June 2007).
58. Robert B. Zoellick, 'Whither China: From membership to responsibility?', remarks to the National Committee on US-China Relations, New York, 21 September 2005. This paragraph draws on a useful analysis of the speech and its implications for US strategy by James J. Przystup and Phillip C. Saunders, 'Visions of order: Japan and China in US strategy', Strategic Forum no. 220 (Washington, DC: National Defense University, Institute for National Strategic Studies, June 2006).
59. Lieberthal and Herberg, 'China's search for energy security', p. 17.
60. Leland R. Miller, 'In search of China's energy authority', Far Eastern Economic Review 169(1), (January-February 2006), p. 39.
61. On US policy debate, consult National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency. On potential initiatives involving China, consult Lieberthal and Herberg, 'China's search for energy security', pp. 30-37.
62. Miller, 'In search of China's energy authority', p. 39.
63. Ibid., p. 41.
64. Downs, China, pp. 17, 19, 20.
65. For a cogent critique of energy independence as an explicit US policy goal, consult National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency.
66. US-China Energy Policy Dialogue (Washington Foreign Press Center, 19 September 2006), available at: Fpc.state.gov/fpc/72880.htm.
67. Shai Oster and David Winning, 'China, IEA near pact on strategic oil reserve', Wall Street Journal, (18 January 2007).
68. For a detailed and very useful account, see Gabriel Collins, 'China fills first SPR site, faces oil, pipeline issues', Oil and Gas Journal, (20 August 2007), pp. 20-29.
69. For a particularly detailed and graphic account, see Joseph Kahn and Jim Yardley, 'As China roars, pollution reaches deadly extremes', New York Times, (26 August 2007).
70. For a harsh assessment of the acute deficiencies of Chinese policy making, see Elizabeth C. Economy, 'The great leap backward? - the costs of China's environmental crisis', Foreign Affairs 86(5), (September-October 2007), pp. 38-59.
71. The National Strategy for Maritime Security (Washington, DC: The White House, September 2005)
72. see also Maritime Security in the East Asia and Pacific Region (Washington, DC: US Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, 21 April 2006).
73. Admiral Michael Mullen, Speech at the Naval War College, 5 September 2005, in InsideDefense.com (9 September 2005). In October 2007, Admiral Mullen assumed responsibilities as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
74. Vice Admiral John Morgan, Jr and Rear Admiral Charles Martoglio, 'The thousand ship navy - a global maritime network', US Naval Institute Proceedings, (November 2005).
75. Lyle J. Goldstein, 'China - a new maritime partner?', US Naval Institute Proceedings, (August 2007), pp. 26-31.