Empirical modelling of lake water-temperature relationships: A comparison of approaches

Freshwater Biology

Volumn 53, Issue 5, 2008, Pages 897-911

  Sharma, Sapna ^a   Walker, Steven C ^a   Jackson, Donald A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO   (Canada)

Author keywords

Artificial neural networks; Bayesian multiple regression; Multiple regression; Predictive models; Surface water temperature

Indexed keywords

EID: 41849093684     PISSN: 00465070     EISSN: 13652427     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2008.01943.x     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Anderson W.L., Robertson D.M. Magnuson J.J. (1996) Evidence of recent warming and El Nino-related variations in ice breakup of Wisconsin lakes. Limnology and Oceanography, 41, 815 821.
2. Arai T. (1981) Climatic and geomorphological influences on lake temperature. Verhandlungen der Internationaler Vereinigung für Theoretische und Angewandte Limnologie, 21, 130 134.
3. Austin J.A. Colman S.M. (2007) Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than air temperatures: a positive ice-albedo feedback. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L06604, doi:.
4. Brandt S.B., Mason D.M., McCormick M.J., Lofgren B. Hunter T.S. (2002) Climate change: implications for fish growth performance in the Great Lakes. American Fisheries Society Symposium, 32, 61 76.
5. Brosse S., Guegan J.F., Tourenq J.N. Lek S. (1999) The use of artificial neural networks to assess fish abundance and spatial occupancy in the littoral zone of a mesotrophic lake. Ecological Modelling, 120, 299 311.
6. Casella G. Moreno E. (2006) Objective Bayesian variable selection. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101, 157 167.
7. Casselman J.M. (2002) Effects of temperature, global extremes, and climate change on year-class production of warmwater, coolwater, and coldwater fishes in the Great Lakes basin. In : Fisheries in a Changing Climate (Ed. N.A. McGinn pp. 39 60. Blackwell Publishing, Bethesda, Maryland.
8. Chen Y. Jackson D.A. (1995) Robust estimation of mean and variance in fisheries. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 124, 401 412.
9. Christie G.C. Regier H.A. (1988) Measures of optimal thermal habitat and their relationship to yields for 4 commercial fish species. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 45, 301 314.
10. De'ath G. (2002) Multivariate regression trees: a new technique for modeling species-environment relationships. Ecology, 83, 1105 1117.
11. De'ath G. Fabricius K.E. (2000) Classification and regression trees: a powerful yet simple technique for ecological data analysis. Ecology, 81, 3178 3192.
12. Edmundson J.A. Mazumder A. (2002) Regional and hierarchical perspectives of thermal regimes in subarctic, Alaskan lakes. Freshwater Biology, 47, 1 17.
13. French T.D., Campbell L.M., Jackson D.A., Casselman J.M., Scheider W.A. Hayton A. (2006) Persistent organic pollutants in Lake Ontario Salmon: changes linked to source control, trophodynamics and a warming climate. Limnology and Oceanography, 51, 2794 2807.
14. Garson G.D. (1991) Interpreting neural-network connection weights. Artificial Intelligence Expert, 6, 47 51.
15. Gevrey M., Dimopoulos I. Lek S. (2006) Two-way interaction of input variables in the sensitivity analysis of neural network models. Ecological Modelling, 195, 43 50.
16. Goh A.T.C. (1995) Back-propagation neural networks for modeling complex systems. Artificial Intelligence of Engineering, 9, 143 151.
17. Guisan A. Zimmermann N.E. (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 135, 147 186.
18. Jackson D.A., Peres-Neto P.R. Olden J.D. (2001) What controls who is where in freshwater fish communities - the roles of biotic, abiotic, and spatial factors. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 58, 157 170.
19. Kettle H., Thompson R., Anderson N.J. Livingstone D.M. (2004) Empirical modelling of summer lake surface temperatures in southwest Greenland. Limnology and Oceanography, 49, 271 282.
20. Kuo L. Mallick B. (1998) Variable selection for regression models. Sankhya, 60, 65 81.
21. Lek S. Guégan J.F. (1999) Artificial neural networks as a tool in ecological modeling, an introduction. Ecological Modelling, 120, 65 73.
22. Lek S., Delacoste M., Baran P., Dimopolous I., Lauga J. Aulagnier S. (1996) Application of neural networks to modelling nonlinear relationships in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 90, 39 52.
23. Livingstone D.M. Dokulil M.T. (2001) Eighty years of spatially coherent Austrian lake surface temperatures and their relationship to regional air temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnology and Oceanography, 46, 1220 1227.
24. Livingstone D.M. Lotter A.F. (1998) The relationship between air and water temperatures in lakes of the Swiss Plateau: a case study with palaeolimnological implications. Journal of Paleolimnology, 19, 181 198.
25. Livingstone D.M. Padisák J. (2007) Large-scale coherence in the response of lake surface-water temperatures to synoptic-scale climate forcing during summer. Limnology and Oceanography, 52, 896 902.
26. Lunn D.J., Whittaker J.C. Best N. (2006) A Bayesian toolkit for genetic association studies. Genetic Epidemiology, 30, 231 247.
27. Magnuson J.J., Crowder L.B. Medvick P.A. (1979) Temperature as an ecological resource. American Zoologist, 19, 331 343.
28. Magnuson J.J., Meisner J.D. Hill D.K. (1990) Potential changes in the thermal habitat of Great Lakes fish after global climate warming. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 119, 254 264.
29. Matuszek J.E. Shuter B.J. (1996) An empirical model for the prediction of daily water temperatures in the littoral zone of temperate lakes. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 125, 622 627.
30. McCombie A.M. (1959) Some relations between air temperatures and the surface water temperatures of lakes. Limnology and Oceanography, 4, 252 258.
31. Ntzoufras I.P. (2002) Gibbs variable selection using BuGS. Journal of Statistical Software, 7, 1 19.
32. Olden J.D. Jackson D.A. (2000) Torturing the data for the sake of generality: how valid are our regression models? Ecoscience, 7, 501 510.
33. Olden J.D. Jackson D.A. (2001) Fish-habitat relationships in lakes: gaining predictive and explanatory insight by using artificial neural networks. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 130, 878 897.
34. Olden J.D. Jackson D.A. (2002a) A comparison of statistical approaches for modelling fish species distributions. Freshwater Biology, 10, 1976 1995.
35. Olden J.D. Jackson D.A. (2002b) Illuminating the "black box": understanding variable contributions in artificial neural networks. Ecological Modelling, 154, 135 150.
36. Olden J.D., Joy M.K. Death R.G. (2006) Rediscovering the species in community-wide predictive modeling. Ecological Applications, 16, 1449 1460.
37. Ozesmi S.L. Ozesmi U. (1999) An artificial neural network approach to spatial habitat modeling with interspecific interaction. Ecological Modelling, 116, 15 31.
38. Ozesmi S.L., Tan C.O. Ozesmi U. (2006) Methodological issues in building, training, and testing artificial neural networks in ecological applications. Ecological Modelling, 195, 83 93.
39. Pearce J. Ferrier S. (2000) An evaluation of alternative algorithms for fitting species distribution models using logistic regression. Ecological Modelling, 128, 127 147.
40. Rejwan C., Collins N.C., Brunner L.J., Shuter B.J. Ridgway M.S. (1999) Tree regression analysis on the nesting habitat of smallmouth bass. Ecology, 80, 341 348.
41. Sharma S. Jackson D.A. (2008) Predicting smallmouth bass incidence across North America under climate change: a comparison of statistical approaches. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, in press.
42. Sharma S., Jackson D.A., Minns C.K. Shuter B.J. (2007) Will northern fish populations be in hot water because of climate change? Global Change Biology, 13, 2052 2064, doi:.
43. Shuter B.J. Post J.R. (1990) Climate, population viability, and the zoogeography of temperate fishes. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 119, 314 336.
44. Shuter B.J., MacLean J.A., Fry F.E.J. Regier H.A. (1980) Stochastic simulation of temperature effects on first-year survival of smallmouth bass. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 109, 1 34.
45. Shuter B.J., Schlesinger D.A. Zimmerman A.P. (1983) Empirical predictors of annual surface water temperature cycles in North American lakes. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 40, 1838 1845.
46. Snucins E. Gunn J. (2000) Interannual variation in the thermal structure of clear and colored lakes. Limnology and Oceanography, 45, 1639 1646.
47. Staehr P.A. Sand-Jensen K. (2006) Seasonal changes in temperature and nutrient control of photosynthesis, respiration and growth of natural phytoplankton communities. Freshwater Biology, 51, 249 262.
48. Tonn W.M. (1990) Climate change and fish communities: a conceptual framework. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 119, 337 352.
49. Uimari P. Hoeschele I. (1997) Mapping linked quantitative trait loci using Bayesian method analysis and Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Genetics, 146, 735 743.
50. Whittington M.J., Stephens P.A., Bradbury R.B. Freckleton R.P. (2006) Why do we still use stepwise modelling in ecology and behaviour? Journal of Animal Ecology, 75, 1182 1189.