Regional model simulation of North Atlantic cyclones: Present climate and idealized response to increased sea surface temperature

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

Volumn 113, Issue 2, 2008, Pages

  Semmler, Tido ^a   Varghese, Saji ^b   McGrath, Ray ^a   Nolan, Paul ^c   Wang, Shiyu ^a   Lynch, Peter ^c   O'Dowd, Colin ^b  

^a Irish Meteorological Service   (Ireland)

^b NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF IRELAND   (Ireland)

^c UNIVERSITY COLLEGE DUBLIN   (Ireland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; HURRICANES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; STORMS;

ANNUAL VARIATION; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CYCLONE; HURRICANE; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; STORM; WIND VELOCITY;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH);

EID: 41649099730     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2006JD008213     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Bell, G. D., and M. Chelliah (2006), Leading tropical modes associated with interannual and multidecadal fluctuations m North Atlantic hurricane activity, J. Clim., 19, 590-612.
2. Benestad, R. E., and D. Chen (2006), The use of a calculus-based cyclone identification method for generating storm statistics, Tellus, 58A, 473-486.
3. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and E. Roeckner (2006), Storm tracks and climate change, J. Clim., 19, 3518-3543.
4. Blender, R., and M. Schubert (2000), Cyclone tracking in different spatial and temporal resolutions, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 377-384, doi:10.1175/1520-0493 (2000)128<0377:CTTDSA>2.0.CO;2.
5. Camargo, S. J., and A. H. Sobel (2004), Formation of tropical storms in an atmospheric general circulation model, Tellus, 56A, 56-67.
6. Camp, J. P., and M. Montgomery (2001), Hurricane maximum intensity: Past and present, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 1704-1717.
7. Chan, J. C. L., Y. Duan, and L. K. Shay (2001), Tropical cyclone intensity change from a simple ocean-atmosphere coupled model, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 154-172, doi:10.1175/1520-0469 (2001)058<0154:TCICFA>2.0.CO;2.
8. Chen, S.-J., Y.-H. Kuo, P.-Z. Zhang, and Q.-F. Bai (1992), Climatology of explosive cyclones off the east Asian coast, Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 3029-3035, doi:10.1175 /1520-0493(1992)120<3029:COECOT>2.0.CO;2.
9. Davies, H. C. (1976), A lateral boundary formulation for multilevel prediction models, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 105, 629-655.
10. Davis, C., and L. F. Bosart (2002), Numerical simulations of the genesis of hurricane Diana (1984). Part II: Sensitivity of track and intensity prediction, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 1100-1124, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0493(2002)130<1100:NSOTGO>2.0.CO;2.
11. De Maria, M., and J. Kaplan (1994), Sea surface temperature and the maximum intensity of Atlantic tropical cyclones, J. Clim., 7, 1324-1334, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1324:SSTATM>2.0.CO;2.
12. Emanuel, K. A. (1987), The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate, Nature, 326, 483-485.
13. Evans, J. L., and R. E. Hart (2003), Objective Indicators of the life cycle evolution of extratropical transition for Atlantic tropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 909-925.
14. Evans, J. L., B. F. Ryan, and J. L. McGregor (1994), A numerical exploration of the sensitivity of tropical cyclone rainfall intensity to sea surface temperature, J. Clim., 7, 616-623.
15. Geng, Q., and M. Sugi (2001), Variability of the North Atlantic cyclone activity in winter analyzed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, J. Clim., 14, 3863-3873.
16. Geng, Q., and M. Sugi (2003), Possible change of extratropical cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols - Study with a high-resolution AGCM, J. Clim., 16, 2262-2274.
17. Giordani, H., and G. Caniaux (2001), Sensitivity to sea surface temperature in the Northwestern Atlantic, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 1273-1295.
18. Giorgi, F. (1990), Simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model, J. Clim., 3, 941-963.
19. Gyakum, J. R., and R. E. Danielson (2000), Analysis of meteorological precursors to ordinary and explosive Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 851-863, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0493(2000)128<0851:AOMPTO>2.0.CO;2.
20. Hall, N. M. J., B. J. Hoskins, P. J. Valdes, and C. A. Senior (1994), Storm tracks in a high-resolution GCM with doubled carbon dioxide, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 120, 1209-1230, doi:10.1256/smsqj.51904.
21. Hart, R. E. (2003), A cyclone phase space derived from thermal wind and thermal asymmetry, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 585-616.
22. Hart, R. E., and J. L. Evans (2001), A climatology of the extratropical transition of Atlantic tropical cyclones, J. Clim., 14, 546-564.
23. Henderson-Sellers, A., H. Zhang, G. Betz, K. Emanuel, W. Gray, C. Landsea, G. Holland, J. Lighthill, S. -L. Shieh, P. Webster, and K. McGuffie (1998), Tropical cyclones and global climate change: A post-IPCC assessment, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 19-38.
24. Holland, G. J. (1997), The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones, J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2519-2541.
25. IPCC (2007), Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Summary for policyrnakers. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC secretariat, Geneve, Switzerland.
26. Jones, S. C., et al. (2003), The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Forecast challenges, current understanding, and future directions, Weather Forecasting, 18, 1052-1092.
27. Jones, C. G., U. Willén, A. Ullerstig, and U. Hansson (2004), The Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model Part I: Model climatology and performance for the present climate over Europe, Ambio, 33, 199-210.
28. Jung, T., S. K. Gulev, I. Rudeva, and V. Soloviov (2006), Sensitivity of extratropical cyclone characteristics to horizontal resolution in the ECMWF model, Q. J. R. Meteorol., 132, 1839-1857.
29. Kain, J., and M. Fritsch (1990), A one dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterisation, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2784-2802.
30. Kjellström, E., L. Bärring, S. Gollvik, U. Hansson, C. Jones, P. Samuelsson, M. Rummukainen, A. Ullerstig, U. Willén, and K. Wyser (2005), A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3), SMHI Reports Meteorology and Climatology, 108, SMHI, SE-60176, Norrköping, Sweden, 54 pp.
31. Klein, P. M., P. A. Harr, and R. L. Elsberry (2002), Extratropical transition of western North Pacific tropical cyclones: Midlatitude and tropical cyclone contributions to reintensification, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 2240-2259.
32. Knutson, T. R., and R. E. Tuleya (2004), Ernpact of C02-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization, J. Clim., 17, 3477-3495.
33. Knutson, T. R., R. E. Tuleya, W. Shen, and I. Ginis (2001), Impact of CO2-induced warming on hurricane intensities as simulated in a hurricane model with ocean coupling, J. Clim., 14, 2458-2468.
34. König, W., R. Sausen, and F. Sielmann (1993), Objective identification of cyclones in GCM simulations, J. Clim., 6, 2217-2231, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<2217:OIOCIG>2.0.CO;2.
35. Krishnamurti, T. N., D. K. Oosterhof, and N. Dignon (1989), Hurricane prediction with a high resolution global model, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 631-669.
36. Lambert, S. J. (1995), The effect of enhanced greenhouse warming on winter cyclone frequencies and strengths, J. Clim., 8, 1447-1452, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1447:TEOEGW>2.0.CO;2.
37. Landsea, C. W., N. Nicholls, W. M. Gray, and L. A. Avila (1996), Downward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five decades, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1697-1700.
38. Landsea, C. W., B. A. Harper, K. Hoarau, and J. A. Knaff (2006), Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones?, Science, 313, 452-454.
39. Liu, K. S., and J. C. L. Chan (1999), Size of tropical cyclones as inferred from ERS-1 and ERS-2 data, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 2992-3001.
40. Michaels, P., P. C. Knappenberger, and C. Landsea (2005), Comments on "Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective scheme", J. Clim., 18, 5179-5182.
41. Moore, R. W, and T. H. vonder Haar (2003), Diagnosis of a polar low warm core utilizing the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit, Weather Forecasting, 18, 700-711.
42. Nguyen, K. C., and K. J. E. Walsh (2001), Interannual, decadal and transient greenhouse simulations of tropical cyclone-like vortices in a regional climate model of the South Pacific, J. Clim., 14, 3043-3054.
43. NHC (2007a), [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml, section "Hurricane Best Track Files (HURDAT)"].
44. NHC (2007b), [Available online at http://www.nhc.noa&gov/ aboutsshs.shtml].
45. Oouchi, K., J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshimura, R. Mizuta, S. Kusunoki, and A. Noda (2006), Tropical cyclone climatology in a global-warming climate as simulated in a 20 km-mesh global atmospheric model: Frequency and wind intensity analyses, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 84, 259-276.
46. Pavan, V, N. Hall, P. Valdes, and M. Blackburn (1999), The importance of moisture distribution for the growth and energetics of mid-latitude systems, Ann. Geophys., 17, 242-256.
47. Ritchie, E. A., and R. L. Elsberry (2001), Simulations of the transformation stage of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 1462-1480.
48. Sanders, F., and J. R. Gyakum (1980), Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the "Bomb", Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 1589-1606.
49. Sinclair, M. R. (2002), Extratropical transition of southwest Pacific tropical cyclones. Part I: Climatology and mean structure changes, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 590-609.
50. Sinclair, M. R., and I. G. Watterson (1999), Objective assessment of extratropical weather systems in simulated climates, J. Clim., 12, 3467-3485, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<3467:OAOEWS>2.0.CO;2.
51. Tuleya, R. E., and Y. Kurihara (1982), A note on the sea surface temperature sensitivity of a numerical model of tropical storm genesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 110, 2063-2069.
52. Uppala, S. M., et al. (2005), The ERA-40 reanalysis, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961-3012.
53. Vitart, F., J. L. Anderson, and W. F. Stern (1997), Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations, J. Clim., 10, 745-760.
54. Walsh, K. (2004), Tropical cyclones and climate change: Unresolved issues, Clim. Res., 27, 77-83.
55. Walsh, K. J. E., and J. J. Katzfey (2000), The impact of climate change on the poleward movement of tropical cyclone-like vortices in a regional climate model, J. Clim., 13, 1116-1132.
56. Walsh, K. J. E., and B. F. Ryan (2000), Tropical cyclone intensity increase near Australia as a result of climate change, J. Clim., 13, 3029-3036.
57. Walsh, K. J. E., K. C. Nguyen, and J. L. McGregor (2004), Fine-resolution regional climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones near Australia, Clim. Dyn., 22, 47-56.
58. Yoshimura, J., M. Sugi, and A. Noda (2006), Influence of greenhouse warming on tropical cyclone frequency, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 84, 405-428.
59. Zhang, Y., and W-C. Wang (1997), Model-simulated northern winter cyclone and anticyclone activity under a greenhouse warming scenario, J. Clim., 10, 1616-1634, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(1997)010<1616:MSNWCA>2.0.CO;2.